“All of the problems we're facing with debt are manmade problems. We created them. It's called fantasy economics. Fantasy economics only works in a fantasy world. It doesn't work in reality.” Michele Bachmann-
As 2011 trundles on the annus horribilis as predicted seems to be going from bad to worse. The Greek rescue bailout plan has been approved but there’s no guarantee that Greece has the ability to pay the extended overdraft so the likelihood of a sovereign default is still intact (S&P are suggesting this). Many observers are predicting severe pressures on Spain and Italy later this year but of course the exposure of banks in France and Germany to Greece etc are the real concern as the Eurozone itself looks destined for severe disruption. One thing that is clear is that events will likely unfold where investors least likely expect. The whole problem with the DEBT subject is that no-one in government, the central banks (the ECB and IMF appear in disarray too), the regulators seems to want to wake up to the fact that sovereign and municipal debt needs to be paid down rather than be extended. It’s rather like the bank manager lending to a client, extending the facilities and then coming to the realisation that the client can never repay. The conclusion is always repossession except in the political landscape developed world tax hikes and asset sales can muddy the picture. There is also the appalling situation in regard to pensions and the aging population that requires medicare. In essence the outlook is dire unless SME’s and self-employed are looked after but to date ‘big business’ is ticking over and non-doms are living the dream. What concerns me is the fact that whilst factoring in all the ‘whammies’ the capital markets seem to be in a fantasy world regarding valuations. In UK mid-teen p/e’s are the norm. I speak regularly to retired brokers who think that single digit p/e’s are likely hereon so a FTSE100 10-30% correction from the 6,000 level could be on the cards. The hedge to these calamities has been to remain LONG of oil, oil stocks, precious metals, precious metals stocks and agri-commodities but remarkably a disconnect has occurred between the raw prices and stocks in oils and miners. The Glencore (commodities trader) flotation drained capital from these sectors and institutions and hedge funds have (apparently) stayed LONG of the commodities and shorted the sectorial stocks. This has resulted in a mini-bear market in these sectors but I think that the investment case today is arguably greater than it has been in previous years. Cash institutions are loading up in both sectors and whilst there are capital raising issues abundant this is being reflected in the markets. Sooner or later the reverse will occur as the shorts will get closed and I suspect when (not if) a default does occur then Gold will rise sharply to $1,600-1,850 range, possibly much higher as contagion expands. The other major factor that will determine market direction is global inflation and with China at 5% and most western economies at similar levels any indication that this might rise hereon then I think the central banks will have to raise rates. One of the extraordinary side effects of Credit Crunch 1 is that the UK property market has remained somewhat intact compared to US. I don’t think this disparity can continue and with the UK government bank holdings being under water I think UK tax payers are facing a reality check as the ConLib coalition too faces challenges to its austerity plans. The latest Cleggism regarding bank share issuance is quite ludicrous as was the whole (Labour) rescue plan in 2008/9. There are a few market commentators still predicting Credit Crunch 2 or a Bank Bailout 2 which could make the earlier efforts look like a walk in the park but one thing that market history has taught us is that NO BUSINESS IS TOO BIG TO FAIL. It is only a matter of time before politicians, central bankers and regulators are retested. Interest rate changes and timing remain the key to any true recovery and it is comical to suggest that any rise could lead to a double dip recession when globally millions are being made redundant and millions more are struggling to make ends meet. These are just numbers and regrettably the west is in a dead zone as a little tinkering here and there doesn’t get to the root of the problem. The imbalance between private and public sector employment and reliance can only only be rebalanced if the smaller businesses are given huge incentives to employ rather than being encumbered with excessive legislation.
In regard to stock selection I still continue to recommend Royal Dutch Shell (under £20) and like many are bewildered by BP cum-asset sales where I prefer to wait until the Rosneft/TNK situation sorts itself out. The new Tony Hayward/Nat Rothschild £1.3bn cash vehicle Vallares looks as though it could be in the frame to benefit from BP’s demise and I suspect Hayward the former BP CEO has his sights on some core assets in the sector. Vallares (VLRS) could be a great investment at around the £10 placing price. Elsewhere Cairn, Soco and Heritage look due for a rebound from here. The latter has been buying in it’s own stock heavily the past quarter. Amongst gold miners African Barrick although disappointing still appears more attractive than Randgold and Centamin on valuation grounds but like everything in the sector has been effected by shorting. The exception has been Anglo Pacific (yield 2.85%) which appears to be maintaining its fanatical following. Other miners such as Yamana, Norseman, Chaarat, Mariana, Orosur, Patagonia, and Peninsular have had a negative quarter but should be retained as brokers remain positive. My favourite, Shanta Gold reported spectacular ore grades for its principal Luika operation recently and an upbeat Chairman’s statement underlines the strength of the opportunity as Shanta has an extraction cost of around $500pto and Singida is due to update shortly. In FTSE100 I am extremely cautious although I continue to await a fallback in BAE Systems nearer 300/310p, GlaxoSmithKline nearer 1200/1250p, Sainsbury nearer 300/320p, De La Rue nearer 700/720p and HSBC nearer 600/620p. Elsewhere I am reiterating Tullett Prebon (now 374p yield 4.20%) and continue to accumulate the biotech stock Vectura now at 91p from 63p last review date (brokers are bullish up to 120p). Current investment trusts that should be looked at on any pullbacks are JPMorgan Claverhouse (3.77%), Henderson Far East (4.39%), Schroder Oriental (3.46%), JPMorgan Global Emerging Income (5.27% estimated) with the following general UK trusts, Scottish American (3.78%), Securities Trust of Scotland (3.98%) and Merchants Trust (5.40%) for risk averse investors (all discounts permitting). Otherwise I am still avoiding retail (eruptions on the High Street), property (a pullback is expected), utilities (poor management and questionable accounting techniques) and just about anything consumer related at current valuations. Many PCIAM’s are still adopting a HOLD strategy for the UK economy and market whereas I’m not tempted to change my oil/precious metals stance. These are extraordinary times and some patience is required as the liquidity picture is constantly shifting. Coming up through the rear mirror, of course, is the US debt issue (near $15trillion) and the coming weeks should prove interesting as Congress grapples with the extension dilemna.
In my view equity investments today represent high(er) risk and there seems to be a regulatory desire to measure risk based on pre-Credit Crunch values. It’s clear that the world is in a different universe now which is why I advocate much higher exposure to precious metals and oils to other PCIAM’s. As Ms Bachmann suggests western markets are indeed promoting “fantasy economics”. In 1729 Voltaire said “Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value-ZERO” which is somewhat applicable to the plight of the US dollar and surely the Euro today.
Have an enjoyable summer!
Monday, 4 July 2011
Thursday, 7 April 2011
Review 1Q 2011 6th April 2011
6th April 2011
"I like too many things and get all confused and hung-up running from one falling star to another till I drop. This is the night, what it does to you. I had nothing to offer anybody except my own confusion." —Jack Kerouac
Whilst watching Bloomberg and CNBC these last few weeks I have been struck by how many market commentators are hanging onto every thread of statistics coming out of the Fed and elsewhere and predicting that a global market recovery is on the cards. In fact the repetitiveness of this recovery epidemic is extraordinary as all and sundry predict that the foundations are set for this global recovery. As you can gather I am in the ‘bear’ camp. I cannot see how any responsible government, central banker, regulator nor indeed commentator can call a recovery when employment statistics appear historically dire. Spain alone has 4.3m unemployed and fudged numbers everywhere show a bleak picture. Inflation is rising (4.4% in UK), rates are predicted to accelerate sharply upwards, bankers are still acting like hedge funds, taxes are going up, the oil price is rising sharply and agri prices are forcing food prices into the stratosphere. The UK supermarkets are finding it tough too and UK retailers are rocking too. Meanwhile bank bonuses exceed a fairytale £75bn, lending is still rolling along the bottom, debt levels everywhere are still at momentous proportions, bond markets look precarious, “dot.com-2” valuations appear to be from Mars, QE is still being rolled out along the printing presses, regulation is tightening and out of control and government enterprises designed to turn the ship around are simply not enough and too late. My year-end prediction that a “bumpy ride is forecast particularly in the Eurozone” has yet to dramatically materialise but the pressures on Portugal followed by Spain and Italy are now so great that something must give before long. An avoidance of all things “fixed interest” is precautionary and whatever you do, don’t be tempted into the property market just yet. US property prices are hardly turning the corner and FOR SALE boards seem to be blighting the landscapes everywhere like windfarms. Perhaps the most extraordinary thing about 2011 so far are the global events that have unfolded and the resilience of both equity and bond markets to these turbulences. Although Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and currently Syria have proved to be surprising and momentous I doubt many feel much sympathy for the Gaddafi regime in Libya and the lack of support within the UN for Resolution 1973 by Russia and China speaks volumes for the global thirst for oil and ill feeling towards old colonial relationships. The earthquakes in Japan interspersed with the great tsunami and a nuclear accident just shows how delicate life is on planet Earth. The Japanese must undertake a rebuilding process for the second time since August 1945 and if past history is anything to go by then the likes of Sony, Toshiba, Toyota, Mitsubishi could be great investments hereon albeit it does look a little early against a poor economic backdrop there. To summarise I do think that in the western globally developed nations some thought must be given to providing the self-employed & SME’s with the right incentives to propogate the (possibility of a) recovery but it’s clear that exactly the opposite is happening. It seems that the super-rich are enjoying the fruits of their labours and expecting the rest of the working population to pay for their excesses. In this regard the students are right to protest although their anarchic tendencies seem to be targeted at the likes of Harvey Nicholls rather than the real culprits. I am drawn to the principles of Ludwig von Mizes Institute whereby supporters “argue that mathematical models and statistics are an unreliable means of analyzing and testing economic theory, and advocate deriving economic theory logically from basic principles of human action…Austrian School economists generally hold that the complexity of human behaviour makes mathematical modeling of an evolving market extremely difficult and advocate a laissez faire approach to the economy….they advocate the strict enforcement of voluntary contractual agreements between economic agents and hold that commercial transactions should be subject to the smallest possible imposition of coercive forces. In particular, they argue for an extremely limited role for government and the smallest possible amount of government intervention in the economy.” In a world dominated by the internet and personal devices I must confess I’m rapidly becoming a fan of the Austrian school as governments try to interfere in the modern world through excessive regulation and excessive public investing.
So far in the 1Q of 2011 the US debt mountain has continued to soar and more focus has centred on State debts rather than the mess that the Fed has made. In UK and Europe the battlelines are still drawn and frankly one sees little to commend as the Euro begins its long slow capitulation. Capital markets in the west are relying heavily on excess liquidity, relatively strong dividend covers and 2 year performances but the consumer is finding it extremely difficult at the moment. With p/e ratios in the mid-teens I have a horrible feeling that this is the false dawn similar to the false dawns that markets experienced in the 1930s. No-one can really predict whether QE is ending soon but it’s generally felt that when the taps get switched off then a correction will ensue and it’s my guess it’ll happen sooner rather than later and the fall could be sharper than many are ready for. The Fed, ECB & Bank of England MPC cannot ignore inflation and high commodity prices for ever and a sharp hike in rates could send shock waves through bond and equity markets. The only commendable investment themes that should withstand any onslaught are oil and precious metals stocks which have taken a beating this Q already, Royal Dutch Shell apart. BP has had another jolt recently in Russia as the share swap is received badly and uncertainty over Libya and the Mexican gulf prevail, Centamin has been effected by the rugged departure of Mubarak and the dislocation in Egypt & ME, Randgold has fallen from mid-£60s after a contested election in Cote d’Ivoire resulting in a mini Civil War which threatens to escalate and generally there has been a contagion threat right across the ME, Central Asia, all parts of Africa as well as a refocus on Chinese expansion and human rights abuses pertaining to poor working conditions for workers where China operates. The decline in share prices in these two sectors has been caused mainly by these fears alongside funding demands that are a continual side effect. I do believe that prices in many oil and precious metals companies listed in London will improve dramatically as the year progresses although mainstream FTSE100, 250 & 350 companies could well experience some upheavals hereon. This year was always going to be volatile but just how volatile no-one has experienced…..YET! The likelihood of oil breaking $150 and Gold breaking $1,600pto this year is still intact in my view.
In terms of stock selection I still continue to HOLD Royal Dutch Shell (buy under £20) & BP but prefer to wait until the Rosneft/TNK situation sorts itself out. Cairn (Deutsche have BUY 515p target, Merrill’s 520p) appears to be better value than Tullow where the Uganda tax agreement looks rather ominous. Amongst other oils Hardy Oil & Gas is undervalued, Dominion is static in 6-7p range, Soco Int’l is rumoured to be a takeover (Merrill’s have a BUY 489p target) whilst Heritage Oil reportedly rejected a 425p cash bid last month (Evo’s have a BUY 467p target) although the silence from Heritage is bewildering. Amongst gold miners African Barrick still appears preferential to both Randgold and Centamin on valuation grounds (Edison has issued a report) and SocGen has a BUY on ABG with a 780p target. Anglo Pacific (a mining royalty play) yielding 2.74% has joined the Full List this week whilst other miners such as Yamana, Kirkland Lake, Norseman, Chaarat, Mariana, Orosur, Patagonia, Shanta and Peninsular have had a quiet to negative quarter. In FTSE100 I am extremely cautious although I am looking at BAE Systems nearer 310p, Sainsbury nearer 320p and HSBC nearer 630p. Elsewhere I have a weak HOLD on Tullett Prebon (prefer to buy nearer 380p) and accumulate the biotech stock Vectura at 63p (brokers are bullish over £1). Current investment trusts that should be looked at on any pullbacks are JPMorgan Claverhouse (3.72%), Henderson Far East (4.27%), Schroder Oriental (3.58%), BlackRock Latin America (2.13%) JPMorgan Brazil, JPMorgan India & JPMorgan Russia with the following general UK trusts, Scottish American (3.76%), Securities Trust of Scotland (4.27%) and Merchants Trust (5.42%) for risk averse investors (all discounts permitting).
The headline quote from the great American beatnik author Jack Kerouac sums up the feelings of many as speculators chase “shooting stars” amidst a sky of “confusion”.
As the Royal Wedding approaches at least we can all look forward to a few street parties and reminders that there is one thing that the British do alarmingly well. The sight of guardsmen and the Household Cavalry in their regalia can demonstrate that ‘our chaps and lasses’ are indeed the best. Enjoy the festivities and ignore the austerity measures for a few days at least.
***STOP PRESS.....7th April 2011 --Since writing this review Socrates the outgoing Premier of Portugal has requested a US$100bn bailout from ECB and rates are expected to rise 0.25% later today. Bloomberg is already asking when Spain is going to do the same. Meanwhile all markets are taking this in their strides. Just how far can this discounting of events (bad news) keep bond & equity markets on an even keel? The lead will surely come from Euro/$ with a few eyes peeled too on Euro/£.
"I like too many things and get all confused and hung-up running from one falling star to another till I drop. This is the night, what it does to you. I had nothing to offer anybody except my own confusion." —Jack Kerouac
Whilst watching Bloomberg and CNBC these last few weeks I have been struck by how many market commentators are hanging onto every thread of statistics coming out of the Fed and elsewhere and predicting that a global market recovery is on the cards. In fact the repetitiveness of this recovery epidemic is extraordinary as all and sundry predict that the foundations are set for this global recovery. As you can gather I am in the ‘bear’ camp. I cannot see how any responsible government, central banker, regulator nor indeed commentator can call a recovery when employment statistics appear historically dire. Spain alone has 4.3m unemployed and fudged numbers everywhere show a bleak picture. Inflation is rising (4.4% in UK), rates are predicted to accelerate sharply upwards, bankers are still acting like hedge funds, taxes are going up, the oil price is rising sharply and agri prices are forcing food prices into the stratosphere. The UK supermarkets are finding it tough too and UK retailers are rocking too. Meanwhile bank bonuses exceed a fairytale £75bn, lending is still rolling along the bottom, debt levels everywhere are still at momentous proportions, bond markets look precarious, “dot.com-2” valuations appear to be from Mars, QE is still being rolled out along the printing presses, regulation is tightening and out of control and government enterprises designed to turn the ship around are simply not enough and too late. My year-end prediction that a “bumpy ride is forecast particularly in the Eurozone” has yet to dramatically materialise but the pressures on Portugal followed by Spain and Italy are now so great that something must give before long. An avoidance of all things “fixed interest” is precautionary and whatever you do, don’t be tempted into the property market just yet. US property prices are hardly turning the corner and FOR SALE boards seem to be blighting the landscapes everywhere like windfarms. Perhaps the most extraordinary thing about 2011 so far are the global events that have unfolded and the resilience of both equity and bond markets to these turbulences. Although Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and currently Syria have proved to be surprising and momentous I doubt many feel much sympathy for the Gaddafi regime in Libya and the lack of support within the UN for Resolution 1973 by Russia and China speaks volumes for the global thirst for oil and ill feeling towards old colonial relationships. The earthquakes in Japan interspersed with the great tsunami and a nuclear accident just shows how delicate life is on planet Earth. The Japanese must undertake a rebuilding process for the second time since August 1945 and if past history is anything to go by then the likes of Sony, Toshiba, Toyota, Mitsubishi could be great investments hereon albeit it does look a little early against a poor economic backdrop there. To summarise I do think that in the western globally developed nations some thought must be given to providing the self-employed & SME’s with the right incentives to propogate the (possibility of a) recovery but it’s clear that exactly the opposite is happening. It seems that the super-rich are enjoying the fruits of their labours and expecting the rest of the working population to pay for their excesses. In this regard the students are right to protest although their anarchic tendencies seem to be targeted at the likes of Harvey Nicholls rather than the real culprits. I am drawn to the principles of Ludwig von Mizes Institute whereby supporters “argue that mathematical models and statistics are an unreliable means of analyzing and testing economic theory, and advocate deriving economic theory logically from basic principles of human action…Austrian School economists generally hold that the complexity of human behaviour makes mathematical modeling of an evolving market extremely difficult and advocate a laissez faire approach to the economy….they advocate the strict enforcement of voluntary contractual agreements between economic agents and hold that commercial transactions should be subject to the smallest possible imposition of coercive forces. In particular, they argue for an extremely limited role for government and the smallest possible amount of government intervention in the economy.” In a world dominated by the internet and personal devices I must confess I’m rapidly becoming a fan of the Austrian school as governments try to interfere in the modern world through excessive regulation and excessive public investing.
So far in the 1Q of 2011 the US debt mountain has continued to soar and more focus has centred on State debts rather than the mess that the Fed has made. In UK and Europe the battlelines are still drawn and frankly one sees little to commend as the Euro begins its long slow capitulation. Capital markets in the west are relying heavily on excess liquidity, relatively strong dividend covers and 2 year performances but the consumer is finding it extremely difficult at the moment. With p/e ratios in the mid-teens I have a horrible feeling that this is the false dawn similar to the false dawns that markets experienced in the 1930s. No-one can really predict whether QE is ending soon but it’s generally felt that when the taps get switched off then a correction will ensue and it’s my guess it’ll happen sooner rather than later and the fall could be sharper than many are ready for. The Fed, ECB & Bank of England MPC cannot ignore inflation and high commodity prices for ever and a sharp hike in rates could send shock waves through bond and equity markets. The only commendable investment themes that should withstand any onslaught are oil and precious metals stocks which have taken a beating this Q already, Royal Dutch Shell apart. BP has had another jolt recently in Russia as the share swap is received badly and uncertainty over Libya and the Mexican gulf prevail, Centamin has been effected by the rugged departure of Mubarak and the dislocation in Egypt & ME, Randgold has fallen from mid-£60s after a contested election in Cote d’Ivoire resulting in a mini Civil War which threatens to escalate and generally there has been a contagion threat right across the ME, Central Asia, all parts of Africa as well as a refocus on Chinese expansion and human rights abuses pertaining to poor working conditions for workers where China operates. The decline in share prices in these two sectors has been caused mainly by these fears alongside funding demands that are a continual side effect. I do believe that prices in many oil and precious metals companies listed in London will improve dramatically as the year progresses although mainstream FTSE100, 250 & 350 companies could well experience some upheavals hereon. This year was always going to be volatile but just how volatile no-one has experienced…..YET! The likelihood of oil breaking $150 and Gold breaking $1,600pto this year is still intact in my view.
In terms of stock selection I still continue to HOLD Royal Dutch Shell (buy under £20) & BP but prefer to wait until the Rosneft/TNK situation sorts itself out. Cairn (Deutsche have BUY 515p target, Merrill’s 520p) appears to be better value than Tullow where the Uganda tax agreement looks rather ominous. Amongst other oils Hardy Oil & Gas is undervalued, Dominion is static in 6-7p range, Soco Int’l is rumoured to be a takeover (Merrill’s have a BUY 489p target) whilst Heritage Oil reportedly rejected a 425p cash bid last month (Evo’s have a BUY 467p target) although the silence from Heritage is bewildering. Amongst gold miners African Barrick still appears preferential to both Randgold and Centamin on valuation grounds (Edison has issued a report) and SocGen has a BUY on ABG with a 780p target. Anglo Pacific (a mining royalty play) yielding 2.74% has joined the Full List this week whilst other miners such as Yamana, Kirkland Lake, Norseman, Chaarat, Mariana, Orosur, Patagonia, Shanta and Peninsular have had a quiet to negative quarter. In FTSE100 I am extremely cautious although I am looking at BAE Systems nearer 310p, Sainsbury nearer 320p and HSBC nearer 630p. Elsewhere I have a weak HOLD on Tullett Prebon (prefer to buy nearer 380p) and accumulate the biotech stock Vectura at 63p (brokers are bullish over £1). Current investment trusts that should be looked at on any pullbacks are JPMorgan Claverhouse (3.72%), Henderson Far East (4.27%), Schroder Oriental (3.58%), BlackRock Latin America (2.13%) JPMorgan Brazil, JPMorgan India & JPMorgan Russia with the following general UK trusts, Scottish American (3.76%), Securities Trust of Scotland (4.27%) and Merchants Trust (5.42%) for risk averse investors (all discounts permitting).
The headline quote from the great American beatnik author Jack Kerouac sums up the feelings of many as speculators chase “shooting stars” amidst a sky of “confusion”.
As the Royal Wedding approaches at least we can all look forward to a few street parties and reminders that there is one thing that the British do alarmingly well. The sight of guardsmen and the Household Cavalry in their regalia can demonstrate that ‘our chaps and lasses’ are indeed the best. Enjoy the festivities and ignore the austerity measures for a few days at least.
***STOP PRESS.....7th April 2011 --Since writing this review Socrates the outgoing Premier of Portugal has requested a US$100bn bailout from ECB and rates are expected to rise 0.25% later today. Bloomberg is already asking when Spain is going to do the same. Meanwhile all markets are taking this in their strides. Just how far can this discounting of events (bad news) keep bond & equity markets on an even keel? The lead will surely come from Euro/$ with a few eyes peeled too on Euro/£.
Wednesday, 2 February 2011
What has the FSA ever done for us?
CISI: Up to 6,000 seasoned wealth managers must requalify for RDR
Here is the link http://www.citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/cisi-up-to-6000-seasoned-wealth-managers-must-requalify-for-rdr/a467950?ref=wealth-manager-regulation-list
CoeurDeLion87 comments as follows;-
"The professional body stressed the number of practitioners needing to requalify would not exceed 6,000 because level four was formerly the base qualification for advisers working with private clients prior to the creation of the FSA in 2000." This phrase is NOT actually true. Prior to 2000 there were many seasoned stockbrokers who were given Secs Institute membership waivers by the Securities Institute as it was called then and the SFA, the forerunnerof the FSA approved of these waivers. Many were former Members of the Stock Exchange and some like myself were labelled as part of the "marzipan layer". All these '000s of personnel were and still are experienced personnel. The phrase Level 4 or for that matter any level was invented for RDR by the super-regulator FSA. From the demise of the old exchange till these experienced personnel supported the Secs Institute's introduction of exams in the early '90s there was no examination process amongst stockbrokers. The regulatory world was in chaos after FSA 1986 Act and appears to be in chaos again with the EU attack on 'execution' broking, the FSCS levy surcharge and the intolerable attitude to experienced personnel by FSA, CISI and firms who appear to be supporting RDR which in essence is an attack on the client bases of some very respected investment advisers. MANY OF US FEEL AS THOUGH WE'RE ENTERING A WAR ZONE.
-------
When the Securities Institute was formed in the early '90s over 3,000 former Members of the Stock Exchange transferred their memberships to this new body, now the CISI, which was set up to protect their interests. Looking at the maths it would seem that many of the 3,000, those who have not retired or who are dead, have decided NOT to undertake the RDR bureaucratic process. This is a final nail in the coffin for true private client broking unless the RDR process can be halted. Many of us feel that the whole 'wealth management' process has gone beyond a joke which is creating a pidgeon holing of those who want to simply provide bespoke broking of portfolios. There are 100's of '000s of investors effected by RDR and I do believe that FSA has completely misunderstood the dynamics of this orwellian exercise.
Having worked in the broking industry since around 1979/80 I am appalled at the way that seasoned practitioners are being treated and targeted here by hair brained regulators who clearly have no idea of how the market operates or what investors require. Where is the evidence that investors require over-qualified practitioners? What people do need are seasoned and experienced practitioners and the 3,000 or so defined by CISI need some support now. A few have suggested that RDR qualifications may be an infringement of Human Rights but they certainly are a restraint of trade towards those with very adequate experience.
Here is the link http://www.citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/cisi-up-to-6000-seasoned-wealth-managers-must-requalify-for-rdr/a467950?ref=wealth-manager-regulation-list
CoeurDeLion87 comments as follows;-
"The professional body stressed the number of practitioners needing to requalify would not exceed 6,000 because level four was formerly the base qualification for advisers working with private clients prior to the creation of the FSA in 2000." This phrase is NOT actually true. Prior to 2000 there were many seasoned stockbrokers who were given Secs Institute membership waivers by the Securities Institute as it was called then and the SFA, the forerunnerof the FSA approved of these waivers. Many were former Members of the Stock Exchange and some like myself were labelled as part of the "marzipan layer". All these '000s of personnel were and still are experienced personnel. The phrase Level 4 or for that matter any level was invented for RDR by the super-regulator FSA. From the demise of the old exchange till these experienced personnel supported the Secs Institute's introduction of exams in the early '90s there was no examination process amongst stockbrokers. The regulatory world was in chaos after FSA 1986 Act and appears to be in chaos again with the EU attack on 'execution' broking, the FSCS levy surcharge and the intolerable attitude to experienced personnel by FSA, CISI and firms who appear to be supporting RDR which in essence is an attack on the client bases of some very respected investment advisers. MANY OF US FEEL AS THOUGH WE'RE ENTERING A WAR ZONE.
-------
When the Securities Institute was formed in the early '90s over 3,000 former Members of the Stock Exchange transferred their memberships to this new body, now the CISI, which was set up to protect their interests. Looking at the maths it would seem that many of the 3,000, those who have not retired or who are dead, have decided NOT to undertake the RDR bureaucratic process. This is a final nail in the coffin for true private client broking unless the RDR process can be halted. Many of us feel that the whole 'wealth management' process has gone beyond a joke which is creating a pidgeon holing of those who want to simply provide bespoke broking of portfolios. There are 100's of '000s of investors effected by RDR and I do believe that FSA has completely misunderstood the dynamics of this orwellian exercise.
Having worked in the broking industry since around 1979/80 I am appalled at the way that seasoned practitioners are being treated and targeted here by hair brained regulators who clearly have no idea of how the market operates or what investors require. Where is the evidence that investors require over-qualified practitioners? What people do need are seasoned and experienced practitioners and the 3,000 or so defined by CISI need some support now. A few have suggested that RDR qualifications may be an infringement of Human Rights but they certainly are a restraint of trade towards those with very adequate experience.
Thursday, 20 January 2011
THE FSA HAVE LOST THE PLOT!
Am I the only one in the City who is absolutely flabbergasted by the announcement today from the super-regulator, the FSA? I hope not otherwise we're all in trouble.
Here is the link http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/PR/2011/008.shtml
QUOTE from the FSA link...
Sheila Nicoll, the FSA’s director of conduct policy, said:
"Rebuilding trust between customer and adviser is absolutely vital for the future prosperity of the retail investment market."
***So where is the breakdown of trust between independent advisers and clients? It's appalling to think that this is being said when everyone knows that any client is free to seek advice from anyone in or outside the financial services world. If one doesn't like the adviser one goes elsewhere***
There are so many things going wrong here frankly I haven't got the breath to elaborate further suffice to say that millions of british men and women fought two world wars to safeguard our freedom. It seems that the policies adopted and put into practice today by FSA are more akin to soviet doctrine. When is someone going to stand up to this appalling arrogance and nonsense? Where are you Mr Cameron? Your late father was a respected stockbroker. Surely you can see the futility of this chirade?
Here is the link http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/PR/2011/008.shtml
QUOTE from the FSA link...
Sheila Nicoll, the FSA’s director of conduct policy, said:
"Rebuilding trust between customer and adviser is absolutely vital for the future prosperity of the retail investment market."
***So where is the breakdown of trust between independent advisers and clients? It's appalling to think that this is being said when everyone knows that any client is free to seek advice from anyone in or outside the financial services world. If one doesn't like the adviser one goes elsewhere***
There are so many things going wrong here frankly I haven't got the breath to elaborate further suffice to say that millions of british men and women fought two world wars to safeguard our freedom. It seems that the policies adopted and put into practice today by FSA are more akin to soviet doctrine. When is someone going to stand up to this appalling arrogance and nonsense? Where are you Mr Cameron? Your late father was a respected stockbroker. Surely you can see the futility of this chirade?
Tuesday, 11 January 2011
Review 4Q 2010 10th January 2011
“I think the dot-com boom and bust represented the end of the beginning. The industry is more mature today.” Carly Fiorina Chair & CEO of Hewlett Packard
As 2010 has drawn to a close I’m trying to clutch at anything positive from what occurred last year. Despite swathes of Quantative Easing in the western world, a continuation of malfunctioning banking, near sovereign defaults in Greece and Eire not to mention the underlying fiasco in Iceland, continued unemployment, further unhelpful regulation and a host of other equally unproductive news including England’s failure to compete with an excellent bid by Russia for 2018 World Cup I am drawn to Goldman Sachs revaluation of Facebook. The quote above from Ms Fiorina appears to have been conveniently ignored by the 35,000 employees of America’s premier investment bank, itself bailed out by the Fed and now doing rather well at the expense of US taxpayers. A share of US$13bn amongst the ‘staff’ (av. $370,000 each) on a profits collapse of -40% is almost as spectacular as Blackbeard himself. Wikipedia says of Edward Teach, “Teach used his fearsome image instead of force to elicit the response he desired from those he robbed”. I can’t help feeling that an increase of $30bn in valuation for Facebook (“fb”) throughout 2010 to $50bn with purportedly $2bn of advertising revenues and not a single subscriber paying anything for the (socially useless) service should be of some interest to SEC but I’m not going to hold my breath. With the announcement from LinkedIn (a network site for business people again with no visible earnings) as well regarding its own intended IPO it would appear that “Dot.com Part 2 boom & bust” is nearly upon us. Out of a dozen people at a xmas dinner party 11 had used “fb” in 2010 (2 had deleted their accounts incl. myself) although none had ever seen an advert. It would seem that the descendants of Blackbeard did arrive on the american shoreline as once feared. To put Facebook’s valuation into perspective BP is today valued at $140bn (no thanks to the mess in the Gulf and Mr Obama’s meddling) and Tesco at $53bn (making some progress in China). Anyway 2010 wasn’t a great year despite the arrival of the iPad. Stock markets tended to remain buoyant throughout with a positive 4Q beckoning in new year prospects.
So what does the future hold in 2011? With the unnerving scale of sovereign debt(s), especially the mind boggling US$14.29 trillion overseen by the Federal Reserve and engineered by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs (funny how that name keeps cropping up!), not to mention UK’s National Debt of c.£3 trillion (now who’s counting?) and the shenanigans in EU accounting practices (the PIGS sovereign debt issues are coming to a head!) perhaps some acknowledgement from politicians, bankers and regulators may be forthcoming but I’m NOT going to hold my breath on this issue either. Suffice to say that the “Day of Reckoning” must arrive before our grandchildren get saddled with the consequences. The scale of the numbers, the deficits (and let’s not forget the state of the 100 or so US municipals, equivalent to UK’s local councils, who are on the edge of the precipace) and the banking crisis (Lloyds & RBS are still at systemic risk despite the previous government’s intervention) coupled with a lack of grass roots real growth in the west could well get contagious. The fate of the Euro and indeed the fate of the EU economic alliance itself is under threat but of course there is another concern too. The old chestnut, inflation is at last beginning to show its ugly hand. In China it’s already at 5% and in UK 3% or thereabouts. Many observers predict the US to experience higher inflation later this year too and as inflation resurfaces one can expect a hike (or “spike”) in interest rates too. In UK the Governor of the Old Lady, Mr King has forewarned on a move up to around 5% by 2012, a 10 fold increase, so any sudden jolt could send equities and bonds into a spirral. It’s a very difficult landscape to predict at the moment, suffice to say that everyone would prefer lower taxes, more stimulae for private investors that might just lead to job creation, lower public spending (the ConDem Coalition seems to be going down this course but arguably the cuts are being ground down by unionism and stubborn behaviour) and a magic fix to the banking debacle and the deficits. Regrettably it’s not likely to happen but as market practitioners are well aware as long as the Fed, the ECB and the Old Lady stumble around in the dark rolling the printing presses then at least equities will remain buoyant. The disturbing scenario unfolding, however, suggests that a few other issues may catalyse the return to reality. 2011 will undoubtedly be volatile at times and with Brazil, Russia, India somewhere around 5-8% GDP growth and China running at 8-9% growth the onus may be on US to surprise us all on the upside. Even the perennial arch bear, Prof. Nouriel Roubini has conceded that the US could grow at up to 3% this year. Of course, the trouble with all these growth predictions and corporate profits (especially the banks profits) is that they pale into insignificance compared to the scale of sovereign and municipal debts and deficits. Something has to give here and although most investment specialists now subscribe to significant weightings in gold (5% to 75% is the range although 25-35% perhaps is more realistic) other precious and rare earth metals it’s likely that volatility (to the upside I guesstimate) may increase in this sub-sector. Most forecasters have targets of gold at $1,300-$1,800pto already whereas just a few earmark $2,300+ by 2012. The scarcity value here could well surprise a few politicians one day especially if tensions increase in Korea, Iran or in Pakistan. Interestingly the IMF completed a 403 tonnes auction throughout 2010 and the buyers were India, Sri Lanka, China, et al helping to underpin their currencies. With America’s interest bill estimated at $413bn for 2010 alone the consequencies are that rates must rise and related currencies depreciate. Sadly companies and individuals who have managed their finances prudently over the years could well end up paying for this mess through higher taxation.
So what did happen in stock markets during 2010? The BP saga apart and Apple’s cementing of its position with the iPad markets tended to trade sideways until the final Q. Towards the end of the year much focus was directed at China and its control over 90% of the world’s rare earth metals sub-sector involving dozens of metals ending in “ –ium” which are essential to hybrid cars, cell phones and computer drives. The pendulum has swung and apart from Silicon Valley and a western specialisation in oil exploration and extraction it would appear that China is now dominant in most departments of the world economy.
In terms of stock selection I still continue to recommend the 2 oil majors, Royal Dutch Shell & BP (the recent problem with the Alaska pipeline can be fixed relatively easily) although I’d expect a small pull back to below £20 for RDS. There is unlikely to be any significant pull back on the oil price much below $80pbo (JPMorgan forecast $120pbo by end-2012 with a Brent average at $95pbo this year). Again I still await a buying opportunity in GlaxoSmithKline (below £12) and a host of other FTSE100 constituents which all appear to be ahead of themselves. Randgold (despite the election stalemate in Cote d’Ivoire) and African Barrick, however, still appeal at the current levels (£51 & 575p approx. respectively). Earnings could well surprise to the downside particularly in UK where consumers lower down are having a rough ride. Retail sales and 4Q growth was pretty static to say the least. In addition I continue to recommend Tullett Prebon now 416p yield 3.6% as the inter-broker-dealer should benefit from the volatility hereon. Amongst other miners on LSE I like Petropavlovsk (could be a takeover later this year), Anglo Pacific (a mining royalty play), the 2 canadians Yamana & Kirkland Lake, the smaller gold miners such as Chaarat, Mariana, Obtala, Orosur, Patagonia and Shanta, the tungsten play Ormonde Mining and amongst oils, Dominion (the Uganda situation appears more positive), Heritage (awaiting developments), Petroceltic (has been quiet of late but the hiring of ex-Tullow FD is bullish) and Soco Int’l (a takeover play on its Vietnam and Congo prospects). I’m hesitatingly awaiting a slowdown in China as I don’t believe its current growth can be maintained ( a 3-5% GDP rate is much more realistic) and if this happens then the knock on could be dramatic for the west as well as for emerging markets. Of course the focus should continue to be on natural resources (oil & gas), specialist metals (precious & rare earth), and moderately geared companies. Recently I have advocated more exposure in a few overseas investment trusts with decent yields although it should be stressed that only ½ units should be committed at this juncture with a proviso to add to on any pullbacks. They are the new trust, JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust (prospective 4% yield), Henderson Far East (4%), Schroder Oriental (3.4%), BlackRock Latin America (1.2%) and I think the following also merit a look; BlackRock Brazil, JPMorgan India & JPMorgan Russia. The leader in the emerging markets pack, Mark Mobius’s Templeton Emerging appears to be pretty unwieldy these days and I’m not convinced by Anthony Bolton’s Fidelity China Fund either.
Hold on to your helmets! A bumpy ride is forecast particularly in the Eurozone although judging by the state of bonds in the zone the EU may have its first ejection sooner than predicted. The inability of virtually every nation in EU to balance the budgets and keep to the guidelines set by the bureaucrats does not bode well.
Anyway England stormed the Ashes series down under and the Royal Wedding should at least be good for the merchandising industry (Portmeirion PMP should perform well). All we need now is some sunshine.
As 2010 has drawn to a close I’m trying to clutch at anything positive from what occurred last year. Despite swathes of Quantative Easing in the western world, a continuation of malfunctioning banking, near sovereign defaults in Greece and Eire not to mention the underlying fiasco in Iceland, continued unemployment, further unhelpful regulation and a host of other equally unproductive news including England’s failure to compete with an excellent bid by Russia for 2018 World Cup I am drawn to Goldman Sachs revaluation of Facebook. The quote above from Ms Fiorina appears to have been conveniently ignored by the 35,000 employees of America’s premier investment bank, itself bailed out by the Fed and now doing rather well at the expense of US taxpayers. A share of US$13bn amongst the ‘staff’ (av. $370,000 each) on a profits collapse of -40% is almost as spectacular as Blackbeard himself. Wikipedia says of Edward Teach, “Teach used his fearsome image instead of force to elicit the response he desired from those he robbed”. I can’t help feeling that an increase of $30bn in valuation for Facebook (“fb”) throughout 2010 to $50bn with purportedly $2bn of advertising revenues and not a single subscriber paying anything for the (socially useless) service should be of some interest to SEC but I’m not going to hold my breath. With the announcement from LinkedIn (a network site for business people again with no visible earnings) as well regarding its own intended IPO it would appear that “Dot.com Part 2 boom & bust” is nearly upon us. Out of a dozen people at a xmas dinner party 11 had used “fb” in 2010 (2 had deleted their accounts incl. myself) although none had ever seen an advert. It would seem that the descendants of Blackbeard did arrive on the american shoreline as once feared. To put Facebook’s valuation into perspective BP is today valued at $140bn (no thanks to the mess in the Gulf and Mr Obama’s meddling) and Tesco at $53bn (making some progress in China). Anyway 2010 wasn’t a great year despite the arrival of the iPad. Stock markets tended to remain buoyant throughout with a positive 4Q beckoning in new year prospects.
So what does the future hold in 2011? With the unnerving scale of sovereign debt(s), especially the mind boggling US$14.29 trillion overseen by the Federal Reserve and engineered by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs (funny how that name keeps cropping up!), not to mention UK’s National Debt of c.£3 trillion (now who’s counting?) and the shenanigans in EU accounting practices (the PIGS sovereign debt issues are coming to a head!) perhaps some acknowledgement from politicians, bankers and regulators may be forthcoming but I’m NOT going to hold my breath on this issue either. Suffice to say that the “Day of Reckoning” must arrive before our grandchildren get saddled with the consequences. The scale of the numbers, the deficits (and let’s not forget the state of the 100 or so US municipals, equivalent to UK’s local councils, who are on the edge of the precipace) and the banking crisis (Lloyds & RBS are still at systemic risk despite the previous government’s intervention) coupled with a lack of grass roots real growth in the west could well get contagious. The fate of the Euro and indeed the fate of the EU economic alliance itself is under threat but of course there is another concern too. The old chestnut, inflation is at last beginning to show its ugly hand. In China it’s already at 5% and in UK 3% or thereabouts. Many observers predict the US to experience higher inflation later this year too and as inflation resurfaces one can expect a hike (or “spike”) in interest rates too. In UK the Governor of the Old Lady, Mr King has forewarned on a move up to around 5% by 2012, a 10 fold increase, so any sudden jolt could send equities and bonds into a spirral. It’s a very difficult landscape to predict at the moment, suffice to say that everyone would prefer lower taxes, more stimulae for private investors that might just lead to job creation, lower public spending (the ConDem Coalition seems to be going down this course but arguably the cuts are being ground down by unionism and stubborn behaviour) and a magic fix to the banking debacle and the deficits. Regrettably it’s not likely to happen but as market practitioners are well aware as long as the Fed, the ECB and the Old Lady stumble around in the dark rolling the printing presses then at least equities will remain buoyant. The disturbing scenario unfolding, however, suggests that a few other issues may catalyse the return to reality. 2011 will undoubtedly be volatile at times and with Brazil, Russia, India somewhere around 5-8% GDP growth and China running at 8-9% growth the onus may be on US to surprise us all on the upside. Even the perennial arch bear, Prof. Nouriel Roubini has conceded that the US could grow at up to 3% this year. Of course, the trouble with all these growth predictions and corporate profits (especially the banks profits) is that they pale into insignificance compared to the scale of sovereign and municipal debts and deficits. Something has to give here and although most investment specialists now subscribe to significant weightings in gold (5% to 75% is the range although 25-35% perhaps is more realistic) other precious and rare earth metals it’s likely that volatility (to the upside I guesstimate) may increase in this sub-sector. Most forecasters have targets of gold at $1,300-$1,800pto already whereas just a few earmark $2,300+ by 2012. The scarcity value here could well surprise a few politicians one day especially if tensions increase in Korea, Iran or in Pakistan. Interestingly the IMF completed a 403 tonnes auction throughout 2010 and the buyers were India, Sri Lanka, China, et al helping to underpin their currencies. With America’s interest bill estimated at $413bn for 2010 alone the consequencies are that rates must rise and related currencies depreciate. Sadly companies and individuals who have managed their finances prudently over the years could well end up paying for this mess through higher taxation.
So what did happen in stock markets during 2010? The BP saga apart and Apple’s cementing of its position with the iPad markets tended to trade sideways until the final Q. Towards the end of the year much focus was directed at China and its control over 90% of the world’s rare earth metals sub-sector involving dozens of metals ending in “ –ium” which are essential to hybrid cars, cell phones and computer drives. The pendulum has swung and apart from Silicon Valley and a western specialisation in oil exploration and extraction it would appear that China is now dominant in most departments of the world economy.
In terms of stock selection I still continue to recommend the 2 oil majors, Royal Dutch Shell & BP (the recent problem with the Alaska pipeline can be fixed relatively easily) although I’d expect a small pull back to below £20 for RDS. There is unlikely to be any significant pull back on the oil price much below $80pbo (JPMorgan forecast $120pbo by end-2012 with a Brent average at $95pbo this year). Again I still await a buying opportunity in GlaxoSmithKline (below £12) and a host of other FTSE100 constituents which all appear to be ahead of themselves. Randgold (despite the election stalemate in Cote d’Ivoire) and African Barrick, however, still appeal at the current levels (£51 & 575p approx. respectively). Earnings could well surprise to the downside particularly in UK where consumers lower down are having a rough ride. Retail sales and 4Q growth was pretty static to say the least. In addition I continue to recommend Tullett Prebon now 416p yield 3.6% as the inter-broker-dealer should benefit from the volatility hereon. Amongst other miners on LSE I like Petropavlovsk (could be a takeover later this year), Anglo Pacific (a mining royalty play), the 2 canadians Yamana & Kirkland Lake, the smaller gold miners such as Chaarat, Mariana, Obtala, Orosur, Patagonia and Shanta, the tungsten play Ormonde Mining and amongst oils, Dominion (the Uganda situation appears more positive), Heritage (awaiting developments), Petroceltic (has been quiet of late but the hiring of ex-Tullow FD is bullish) and Soco Int’l (a takeover play on its Vietnam and Congo prospects). I’m hesitatingly awaiting a slowdown in China as I don’t believe its current growth can be maintained ( a 3-5% GDP rate is much more realistic) and if this happens then the knock on could be dramatic for the west as well as for emerging markets. Of course the focus should continue to be on natural resources (oil & gas), specialist metals (precious & rare earth), and moderately geared companies. Recently I have advocated more exposure in a few overseas investment trusts with decent yields although it should be stressed that only ½ units should be committed at this juncture with a proviso to add to on any pullbacks. They are the new trust, JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust (prospective 4% yield), Henderson Far East (4%), Schroder Oriental (3.4%), BlackRock Latin America (1.2%) and I think the following also merit a look; BlackRock Brazil, JPMorgan India & JPMorgan Russia. The leader in the emerging markets pack, Mark Mobius’s Templeton Emerging appears to be pretty unwieldy these days and I’m not convinced by Anthony Bolton’s Fidelity China Fund either.
Hold on to your helmets! A bumpy ride is forecast particularly in the Eurozone although judging by the state of bonds in the zone the EU may have its first ejection sooner than predicted. The inability of virtually every nation in EU to balance the budgets and keep to the guidelines set by the bureaucrats does not bode well.
Anyway England stormed the Ashes series down under and the Royal Wedding should at least be good for the merchandising industry (Portmeirion PMP should perform well). All we need now is some sunshine.
Thursday, 18 November 2010
An email today to Mr Bloom an MEP for UKIP who is supporting true independence
Mr Bloom
By chance a client of mine linked me to some of your YouTube outbursts. May I say that I agree with you 100% about FSA & in particular RDR. If I may, however, pick you up on a minor point. It is NOT only IFA’s that are being targeted in regard to FSA & RDR.
I am a 6th generation stockbroker who has endured the marvels of regulation and in fact like some others I know been on the receiving end of FSA directives that on numerous occasions have impacted on the way that I handle clients. Unfortunately thanks to some underhand planning by larger competitors and trade bodies that were initially set up by the ‘old’ established stockbrokers (I’m referring to the CISI.org) to protect our interests and more importantly those of investors, these same bodies now insist that older more experienced personnel should undertake an orwellian examination process that will drive many of us to despair and perhaps extinction. In effect we are NOT only being dictated to by non-practitioners, people who in many cases don’t have the faintest idea about anything financial, but our valuable franchises are under threat with no exit plans in place. Why should anyone purchase a client bank when they can await RDR and simply ride in and steal goodwill? This in my view what has been the main thrust of RDR. Many of the existing HNW wealth managers simply have nowhere to turn to for new business so by influencing FSA and the quangoes into stereotyping us and pidgeon-holing us it’s relatively easy to target the private unassuming stockbrokers who manage true independent bespoke portfolios (note fees have only been introduced relatively recently by many of us) and give advice daily on exchange products (this is a very different universe to the more detailed advisory commitments made by IFA’s).
I have by my desk a cellophaned telephone directory entitled (cost £150) “Private Client Investment Advice & Management” written by CISI and split into 4 modules;-
1 Financial Advice Within a Regulated Environment (why should it be any different to financial advice outside a regulated environment i.e prior to 1986?)
2. Investment Taxation (not the universe of stockbrokers but usually accountants & tax advisers)
3. Financial Markets (Pertinent to what we do but I doubt the topic could be defined in such a small volume)
4. Trusts and Trustees (again like investment taxation very useful but in this instance more pertinent to solicitors)
As you can gather I have no intention whatsoever of proceeding further with FSA/CISI’s little game.
It’s interesting to note that since ‘Big Bang’ banks have moved into our domain and that many of our other core clients, firms of solicitors mainly, have formulated investment management FSA regulated firms. The crossover of trustees and partners and legal executives versus investment management in these firms surely compounds potential conflicts of interest but because it’s supported by legal boffins no-one thinks twice about the long-term ramifications. The same thing occurs daily in the investment banks with hedge funds et al and again the conflicts are ignored. Yet when it comes to true independence as exemplified by IFAs and private stockbrokers the FSA wants to kill us off and prevent many of us from even giving advice. This is the sovietisation of markets and something needs to be done about it. Is it any wonder that FSA (& its forerunner) has presided over the closure of over 200 private client stockbroking firms since 1986 many of whom have been targeted by the regulators. The LSE has stood back and watched this horror story unfold too. It’s time the UK had its own independent exchange run and owned by its members with a regulatory universe consigned to the dustbin; investors protection can better be governed by simple insurance products in my opinion.
I’d be happy to discuss these topics further. Please pass on my regards to Nigel Farage. Keep up the fight!
Richard Hoblyn FCSISkype: richardhoblyn
By chance a client of mine linked me to some of your YouTube outbursts. May I say that I agree with you 100% about FSA & in particular RDR. If I may, however, pick you up on a minor point. It is NOT only IFA’s that are being targeted in regard to FSA & RDR.
I am a 6th generation stockbroker who has endured the marvels of regulation and in fact like some others I know been on the receiving end of FSA directives that on numerous occasions have impacted on the way that I handle clients. Unfortunately thanks to some underhand planning by larger competitors and trade bodies that were initially set up by the ‘old’ established stockbrokers (I’m referring to the CISI.org) to protect our interests and more importantly those of investors, these same bodies now insist that older more experienced personnel should undertake an orwellian examination process that will drive many of us to despair and perhaps extinction. In effect we are NOT only being dictated to by non-practitioners, people who in many cases don’t have the faintest idea about anything financial, but our valuable franchises are under threat with no exit plans in place. Why should anyone purchase a client bank when they can await RDR and simply ride in and steal goodwill? This in my view what has been the main thrust of RDR. Many of the existing HNW wealth managers simply have nowhere to turn to for new business so by influencing FSA and the quangoes into stereotyping us and pidgeon-holing us it’s relatively easy to target the private unassuming stockbrokers who manage true independent bespoke portfolios (note fees have only been introduced relatively recently by many of us) and give advice daily on exchange products (this is a very different universe to the more detailed advisory commitments made by IFA’s).
I have by my desk a cellophaned telephone directory entitled (cost £150) “Private Client Investment Advice & Management” written by CISI and split into 4 modules;-
1 Financial Advice Within a Regulated Environment (why should it be any different to financial advice outside a regulated environment i.e prior to 1986?)
2. Investment Taxation (not the universe of stockbrokers but usually accountants & tax advisers)
3. Financial Markets (Pertinent to what we do but I doubt the topic could be defined in such a small volume)
4. Trusts and Trustees (again like investment taxation very useful but in this instance more pertinent to solicitors)
As you can gather I have no intention whatsoever of proceeding further with FSA/CISI’s little game.
It’s interesting to note that since ‘Big Bang’ banks have moved into our domain and that many of our other core clients, firms of solicitors mainly, have formulated investment management FSA regulated firms. The crossover of trustees and partners and legal executives versus investment management in these firms surely compounds potential conflicts of interest but because it’s supported by legal boffins no-one thinks twice about the long-term ramifications. The same thing occurs daily in the investment banks with hedge funds et al and again the conflicts are ignored. Yet when it comes to true independence as exemplified by IFAs and private stockbrokers the FSA wants to kill us off and prevent many of us from even giving advice. This is the sovietisation of markets and something needs to be done about it. Is it any wonder that FSA (& its forerunner) has presided over the closure of over 200 private client stockbroking firms since 1986 many of whom have been targeted by the regulators. The LSE has stood back and watched this horror story unfold too. It’s time the UK had its own independent exchange run and owned by its members with a regulatory universe consigned to the dustbin; investors protection can better be governed by simple insurance products in my opinion.
I’d be happy to discuss these topics further. Please pass on my regards to Nigel Farage. Keep up the fight!
Richard Hoblyn FCSISkype: richardhoblyn
Tuesday, 9 November 2010
Review 3Q 2010 4th October 2010
Tim Geithner acknowledged at a conference in Washington last week that “we saved the financial system, but lost the country doing it”.
As the debate about the ‘double-dip’ rages on both sides of the Atlantic there are millions of Americans and possible Europeans who have little comfort in knowing that job prospects appear pretty bleak despite the billions thrown at the banking system alongside liquidity injections across many industries including Detroit. As Yves Smith of the populist blog “Naked Capitalism” has observed that by saving the banks all that has transpired is that bankers have reworked the balance sheets and rehedged the risk only to be rewarded by obscene bonuses based on spurious profits funded ultimately by taxpayers. Smith like many others feels that had a sharp correction or jolt ensued then the recovery prospects today would be more meaningful and possibly stronger. Although it’s clear that there are now some ‘green shoots’ the reality is that many small businesses (SME’s) are sludging around in the mud rather like the golf fans at the Ryder Cup this weekend. From a markets perspective are stocks cheap or expensive? Ditto bonds? I think the case for single digit p/e’s is getting stronger all the time and the irresistible rise in Gold suggests that many others too feel that historically stable currencies and markets could be in for a fright very soon. Further QE this quarter will not deflect from Gold’s rise either. The deflationary/inflationary debate is already twisting and turning but in this regard I think that certain areas such as global property prices are likely to continue to deflate whilst food prices (soft & agri-commodities) and precious and earth metals prices inflate. It really is a complicated world out there and the US China trade and currency saga appears to be nearing conclusion too.
Many emerging markets are still showing signs of genuine growth and the finals frontiers markets too (eg sub-saharan Africa) provide a relatively safe haven for growth orientated investors although regular liquidity issues are likely to be flagged from time to time. The recent beligerance of the Ugandans over Heritage’s supposed CGT liability does show, however, that risks are associated with emerging markets. Despite the ongoing saga at least Heritage had its $1.4billion payment honoured by Tullow and with the £1 Special Dividend having been received by Heritage shareholders the other annoyance is that the book costs for Heritage investors have not been adjusted downwards accordingly making the book/value ratio appear out of kilter. Elsewhere Dana has been acquired by KNOC (the Koreans) and BP continue to realign themselves to a more non-US focused exploration universe. In a world where the buzzword is ‘regulation’ who could have imagined after Dudley’s indignation with the russians a few years ago that TNK-BP would today be the staple business in BP’s universe?
In UK DaveCam speaks of growth opportunities and the ‘big society’ but in reality it appears to be an excuse for ‘big business’ to scalp the individual, the self-employed and the SME. The timely comments at the Conservative Party conference regarding deficits and tax solutions seems to be at loggerheads with freeing up the economy allowing for entrepreneurs and hard-working individuals to trade freely. Certainly experienced stockbrokers and IFA’s are not too amused by the super-regulators’s current offering called the Retail Distribution Review which is sending us all back to school. There was a time in UK when qualifications were voluntary. Not today it seems! It’s pretty galling that after the banks appalling behaviour before during and after the credit crunch that the very same banks should be the major beneficiaries of the RDR monstrosity. True independence is finally getting smoked out after hanging on grimly since ‘Big Bang’ and this does not bode well for market stability, liquidity and small and microcap investment as every stockbroker and investor is coralled into a ‘wealth management’ and collectives category. Is it any wonder that this avalanche of intent is rolling down at breakneck speed as not a single board member of FSA appears to have any experience of bespoke financial investing and advice? Nor much else for that matter.
The one stable story yet again has been ‘Gold’ against the ongoing threat to the Euro, £ and US$ and the yellow metal is testing resistance at below $1332 (now circa 1320) so I’m still actively bullish on gold shares and think that an overweight strategy in precious metals and oils should be maintained. I continue to hold BP post-gulf spill and cum the reintroduction of its dividend policy 1Q 2010 and Royal Dutch Shell ‘B’ (6% yield), and Canadian miner Yamana Gold, FTSE100 gold miners Randgold and African Barrick, Petropavlovsk, Centamin, Norseman, Newmont Mining and ASA (US listed closed-end fund focusing on precious metals) buying them on the dips. UK equities such as British Land, GlaxoSmithKline, Sainsbury, Burberry (a 1350p takeover target has been mooted), Foreign & Colonial Asset and Tullett Prebon can still be bought whilst Soco (on Vietnam oil news), Salamander Energy, Heritage Oil (likely to remain steady for a while pending news on its kurdish fields) and Hardy Oil and Gas (takeover candidate?) appear attractive for appreciation in the oil sector. Oakley Capital (OCL: 70% assets in cash, c.16% discount NAV) and Ashmore Global Opportunities Trust (AGOL) are interesting plays in the trusts sector although I am still very cautious on the equity market generally as I see valuations and expectations being too high. For those requiring income there is a case for ½ units in Henderson Far East (HFEL: 3.8% yield), Schroders Oriental Income (SOI: 3.7% yield) and the new JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust (JEMI: prospective 3-4%). It remains to be seen if Mr Geithner’s comments above do indeed leave the US financial system stronger but the future for many other americans looks very uncertain. It may not be just the US golfers who have to return home with their tails between their legs. Time is running out for Geithner as Obama’s presidency fizzles out ahead of mid-term elections. The ConDem coalition around Downing Street needs a similar tonic too although unlike the Republicans and The Tea Party organization I can’t see Red Ed making any real headway as his schoolboy brother is confined to the back benches. What the anglos need is action and leadership but on this front the current crop of politico-marketing men lack real zip and imagination.
As the debate about the ‘double-dip’ rages on both sides of the Atlantic there are millions of Americans and possible Europeans who have little comfort in knowing that job prospects appear pretty bleak despite the billions thrown at the banking system alongside liquidity injections across many industries including Detroit. As Yves Smith of the populist blog “Naked Capitalism” has observed that by saving the banks all that has transpired is that bankers have reworked the balance sheets and rehedged the risk only to be rewarded by obscene bonuses based on spurious profits funded ultimately by taxpayers. Smith like many others feels that had a sharp correction or jolt ensued then the recovery prospects today would be more meaningful and possibly stronger. Although it’s clear that there are now some ‘green shoots’ the reality is that many small businesses (SME’s) are sludging around in the mud rather like the golf fans at the Ryder Cup this weekend. From a markets perspective are stocks cheap or expensive? Ditto bonds? I think the case for single digit p/e’s is getting stronger all the time and the irresistible rise in Gold suggests that many others too feel that historically stable currencies and markets could be in for a fright very soon. Further QE this quarter will not deflect from Gold’s rise either. The deflationary/inflationary debate is already twisting and turning but in this regard I think that certain areas such as global property prices are likely to continue to deflate whilst food prices (soft & agri-commodities) and precious and earth metals prices inflate. It really is a complicated world out there and the US China trade and currency saga appears to be nearing conclusion too.
Many emerging markets are still showing signs of genuine growth and the finals frontiers markets too (eg sub-saharan Africa) provide a relatively safe haven for growth orientated investors although regular liquidity issues are likely to be flagged from time to time. The recent beligerance of the Ugandans over Heritage’s supposed CGT liability does show, however, that risks are associated with emerging markets. Despite the ongoing saga at least Heritage had its $1.4billion payment honoured by Tullow and with the £1 Special Dividend having been received by Heritage shareholders the other annoyance is that the book costs for Heritage investors have not been adjusted downwards accordingly making the book/value ratio appear out of kilter. Elsewhere Dana has been acquired by KNOC (the Koreans) and BP continue to realign themselves to a more non-US focused exploration universe. In a world where the buzzword is ‘regulation’ who could have imagined after Dudley’s indignation with the russians a few years ago that TNK-BP would today be the staple business in BP’s universe?
In UK DaveCam speaks of growth opportunities and the ‘big society’ but in reality it appears to be an excuse for ‘big business’ to scalp the individual, the self-employed and the SME. The timely comments at the Conservative Party conference regarding deficits and tax solutions seems to be at loggerheads with freeing up the economy allowing for entrepreneurs and hard-working individuals to trade freely. Certainly experienced stockbrokers and IFA’s are not too amused by the super-regulators’s current offering called the Retail Distribution Review which is sending us all back to school. There was a time in UK when qualifications were voluntary. Not today it seems! It’s pretty galling that after the banks appalling behaviour before during and after the credit crunch that the very same banks should be the major beneficiaries of the RDR monstrosity. True independence is finally getting smoked out after hanging on grimly since ‘Big Bang’ and this does not bode well for market stability, liquidity and small and microcap investment as every stockbroker and investor is coralled into a ‘wealth management’ and collectives category. Is it any wonder that this avalanche of intent is rolling down at breakneck speed as not a single board member of FSA appears to have any experience of bespoke financial investing and advice? Nor much else for that matter.
The one stable story yet again has been ‘Gold’ against the ongoing threat to the Euro, £ and US$ and the yellow metal is testing resistance at below $1332 (now circa 1320) so I’m still actively bullish on gold shares and think that an overweight strategy in precious metals and oils should be maintained. I continue to hold BP post-gulf spill and cum the reintroduction of its dividend policy 1Q 2010 and Royal Dutch Shell ‘B’ (6% yield), and Canadian miner Yamana Gold, FTSE100 gold miners Randgold and African Barrick, Petropavlovsk, Centamin, Norseman, Newmont Mining and ASA (US listed closed-end fund focusing on precious metals) buying them on the dips. UK equities such as British Land, GlaxoSmithKline, Sainsbury, Burberry (a 1350p takeover target has been mooted), Foreign & Colonial Asset and Tullett Prebon can still be bought whilst Soco (on Vietnam oil news), Salamander Energy, Heritage Oil (likely to remain steady for a while pending news on its kurdish fields) and Hardy Oil and Gas (takeover candidate?) appear attractive for appreciation in the oil sector. Oakley Capital (OCL: 70% assets in cash, c.16% discount NAV) and Ashmore Global Opportunities Trust (AGOL) are interesting plays in the trusts sector although I am still very cautious on the equity market generally as I see valuations and expectations being too high. For those requiring income there is a case for ½ units in Henderson Far East (HFEL: 3.8% yield), Schroders Oriental Income (SOI: 3.7% yield) and the new JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust (JEMI: prospective 3-4%). It remains to be seen if Mr Geithner’s comments above do indeed leave the US financial system stronger but the future for many other americans looks very uncertain. It may not be just the US golfers who have to return home with their tails between their legs. Time is running out for Geithner as Obama’s presidency fizzles out ahead of mid-term elections. The ConDem coalition around Downing Street needs a similar tonic too although unlike the Republicans and The Tea Party organization I can’t see Red Ed making any real headway as his schoolboy brother is confined to the back benches. What the anglos need is action and leadership but on this front the current crop of politico-marketing men lack real zip and imagination.
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