"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time.....When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory." -Bernard Baruch, Wall Street legend & friend of Jesse Livermore
The over-exuberance in blue chip equities in the 1 Q 2012 has as I write stalled as a reality check is now taking place. It has not been an easy market so far this year with virtually all the bull commentators being paraded up and down on our screens with hopes for growth and recovery. Fortunately many clients and market professionals that I communicate with have taken these prophecies with a pinch of salt. There are many causes for my extreme caution but at the forefront it must be the state of the EU as more pressure is applied to (10 year) bond yields. Austerity measures may be good for politicians but the real effects are that there can be little job creation without substantial investment, better tax incentives for businesses and taking a scythe to red tape and regulation. The latter in particular has been ignored by politicians as SME’s and self-employed (“libres professionnels”) struggle to actually do what their skills are designed for. No-one has broadcast any statistics on how much time is spent per day on all this red tape but my guess is that it is now around 30% of everyone’s day and rising inextricably. In essence thousands of wasted man hours are unproductive which in the end cannot be good for the recovery phase or capitalism per se. The completely ineffective attempt to cut the Public Sector purse in the UK is just an example of the ineptness of the western systems that everyone knows are now creaking at the hinges. From an investing standpoint it would appear that CASH is KING at this critical time as the impending Sputnik Moment for bond markets approaches. It amazes me why so many are scampering for 2% yields (in a universe where inflation is 4 to 5% official) and why so many market people seem to think that Italian and Spanish bond yields in the 6% area are already so damaging (going much higher). Was it that long ago that War Loan yielded 10%+ or that mortgage rates in UK were in the mid-teens? It does seem that traders and their trading mentality appear to be ruling markets still and now the heads of many investors too. My own view is that equities may yield 3%+ in places right now, with large int’l companies throwing off cash at almost unprecedented levels, but this is NOT a good enough reason to chase current share prices against a potentially cataclysmic debacle that might occur in the (f/x, bond & equity) markets gyrating into much much higher bond yields (my own forecast for Italy/Spain 10 year bond yields is 20%+ this year). The risk/reward ratio is just too imbalanced for me at this stage of the QE/Operation Twist process(es) and I’d rather hold precious metals and oil stocks despite the pain that they have suffered to date. As I write FTSE100 is around 5,630 (c.300 points off the high) and the DJIA at 12,715 (from c.13,000). This is hardly a big correction so far so there’s quite some downside if things in EU do get worse hereon. The China slowdown is not helping either with current GDP growth of c.9% forecast to drop to 7½% but the real problem there is the construction/property bubble which has got to epic proportions. With over 500 million in the Chinese workforce there are just too many properties constructed and being developed. The over-supply has already led to some spectacular falls in prices (-35% in Beijing last November) and further pressure is predicted. In fact elsewhere Citibank has just suggested that US prices are also 25% over-valued today even after severe falls there. You don’t need me to tell you how I feel about UK property prices. Did I mention the geopolitical developments in the Middle East? Syria, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen…..well, the list goes on and on. There’s no need to mention the ‘c’ word in Africa either. They’ve been having ‘coups’ there for decades since the imperialists departed. Just in the last year Randgold Resources has had its share price slump at the mercy of shenanigans in the Ivory Coast and more recently Mali where it has 2/3 of its gold operations. But of course the terrain and behavioural patterns are the norm for the Dark Continent. Not so elsewhere in the more developed universe. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Colonels have the last say in Athens or even Madrid.
Reminding ourselves of Bernard Baruch’s famous quote for a minute only leaves me to continue to focus on gold (Randgold, African Barrick, Shanta are all trading too cheaply), oil shares (Royal Dutch Shell at 2180p is getting close to sub-£20 and I’d like to see BP nearer to £4), the old frontiers of Africa (although it’s RISK OFF right now) and other emerging markets (I still prefer Russia and Brazil), solid international investment trusts on pull backs and up to 25% holding cash (in a mix of currencies in addition to £stg & US$) but avoiding the Euro (still). The oil price is still impossible to predict as it appears to have found its range for the short-term but shortages at the pumps are going to become the norm I suspect.
With regard to other specific stock selections I like the look of mid-tier oils such as Premier Oil, Heritage Oil, Hardy O&G, Soco Int’l, Exillion, Chariot O&G and Genel who remain out of favour. In FTSE I’d prefer to look at BAE Systems nearer 260p, GlaxoSmithKline nearer £13, Sainsbury nearer 265p, HSBC nearer 460p and Standard Chartered nearer £12. My 2012 tip Tullett Prebon now near 350p is getting overbought (prefer to buy below £3) although is still a HOLD on takeover hopes. Amongst investment trusts I think purchasing the following on a 10%+ markets correction may be prudent; JPMorgan Claverhouse, Henderson Far East, Schroder Oriental, Securities Trust of Scotland, Merchants Trust and JPMorgan Global Emerging Income. As far as the rest of the UK market is concerned I’m being very selective and prefer international equities but it’s important to avoid those with too much exposure to China, general commodities and anything financial or consumer related. With around 30% of FTSE100 constituents exposed in China it may be prudent to avoid those with connections there. Who knows but the China slump could be the big surprise around the corner.
I continue to encourage portfolio weightings such as 0% Fixed Interest, 20-35% cash, maximum 80% equities (overseas earners mainly incl. 25%-40% in precious metals stocks, a spread of investment trusts). Much has been discussed recently regarding safe havens and the safety of ETF’s and I continue to avoid these vehicles for private investors as I believe there are major regulatory concerns in this area. The level of the coming correction is the key and I still feel that 10-30% is possible which implies 4,776 (20% from 5,970 recent high) on FTSE100. Looking at what happened in the mid-1930’s it’s interesting to note that US$10,000 invested in DJIA in Oct 1929 would have turned into US$3,600 by Dec 1935 whereas the same amount invested in Homestake Mining, a gold miner, grew to US$62,000 i.e 6.2x. During the 1973/74 slump when stocks depreciated over 50% the large gold cap stocks increased 260%+. If the precious metals shares bull does return then spectacular returns could be achieved in the foreseeable future with some of the gold shares already purchased. Many are suggesting that comparisons are unfair with the ‘30s but history has a funny habit of repeating itself. GFMS, the precious metals research group, have just predicted that a looming flare-up in the Eurozone will propel the price of gold towards $2,000 an ounce this year. Exactly!
“Hasta la vista”…….as Spain (it’s debt dwarfs Greece, Italy and the other fringe players) gets nearer to the markets sights the phrase seems more than appropriate.
Let’s hope that Spring doesn’t disappoint.
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Hello Prime Minister, is anyone in today?
Dear Prime Minister
I'm sure you're getting alot of letters at the moment but I'd appreciate just a minute of your time. You see, I've just seen you standing at the despatch box hammering home to the opposition your parties intent on job creation and presumably job retention. You appear to be very passionate about 'jobs' and if this is true I was wondering why you hadn't bothered to respond to my earlier letter to you dated 18th August 2011 headlined "Financial Tsunami heading for the City of London". It's not that I mind being ignored or indeed being fobbed off after years of dedicated service to my stock exchange colleagues and clients but I would just like to hear your explanation as to why you and your party consider it necessary to force literally '000s out of financial services as a result of a piece of nonsensical doctrine called "The Retail Distribution Review".
What is incredible about this RDR is that so many (perhaps pickled!) new age financial services personnel think that the RDR is just tickedyboo but I can assure you that the swell of a tsunami is brewing somewhere beyond the Thames Estuary. Just like the Poll Tax and the Child Support Agency it is quite clear to many experienced financial services personnel that RDR & all it stands for is going to be nothing short of a major disaster for the City of London.
The confusion surrounding Restricted and Independent advice and service is frankly just a sideshow to the real scandal whereby the FSA are trying to shift the entire investment map towards a 'fee based' system, wiping out in the process '000s of decent honest people in an orwellian examination process which is woefully misguided. Ironically it is the banks and former bankers who have entered the wealth industry who are likely to benefit the most. Perhaps this is deliberate and if so surely someone in charge can spot the dubious futility of allowing bankers another gear change; their record has not been that good to date although admittedly spectacular..
Picture this Prime Minister. If the members of the House were over-regulated, and there are many in UK hoping for something along these lines, and a doctrine was devised whereby you would have to prove to your esteemed colleagues and constituent supporters your professional and public competence so that you would be forced to go back to school, take laborious examinations and be subjected to a humiliating visit to The Job Centre then I suggest you might be as incensed as I am by the current behaviour in the City of London.
Nothing good will come from RDR and by splitting the regulator into four pieces I fear more hydra's will evolve. Meanwhile have some sympathy for the innocent hard working people effected by this, their families and 10's of '000s of clients mesmorised by this appalling arrogance. Democracy and fair play used to be a by-word of how the City used to operate. It also used to be what the old Tory party stood for.
Your once obediant servant,
Richard Hoblyn
I'm sure you're getting alot of letters at the moment but I'd appreciate just a minute of your time. You see, I've just seen you standing at the despatch box hammering home to the opposition your parties intent on job creation and presumably job retention. You appear to be very passionate about 'jobs' and if this is true I was wondering why you hadn't bothered to respond to my earlier letter to you dated 18th August 2011 headlined "Financial Tsunami heading for the City of London". It's not that I mind being ignored or indeed being fobbed off after years of dedicated service to my stock exchange colleagues and clients but I would just like to hear your explanation as to why you and your party consider it necessary to force literally '000s out of financial services as a result of a piece of nonsensical doctrine called "The Retail Distribution Review".
What is incredible about this RDR is that so many (perhaps pickled!) new age financial services personnel think that the RDR is just tickedyboo but I can assure you that the swell of a tsunami is brewing somewhere beyond the Thames Estuary. Just like the Poll Tax and the Child Support Agency it is quite clear to many experienced financial services personnel that RDR & all it stands for is going to be nothing short of a major disaster for the City of London.
The confusion surrounding Restricted and Independent advice and service is frankly just a sideshow to the real scandal whereby the FSA are trying to shift the entire investment map towards a 'fee based' system, wiping out in the process '000s of decent honest people in an orwellian examination process which is woefully misguided. Ironically it is the banks and former bankers who have entered the wealth industry who are likely to benefit the most. Perhaps this is deliberate and if so surely someone in charge can spot the dubious futility of allowing bankers another gear change; their record has not been that good to date although admittedly spectacular..
Picture this Prime Minister. If the members of the House were over-regulated, and there are many in UK hoping for something along these lines, and a doctrine was devised whereby you would have to prove to your esteemed colleagues and constituent supporters your professional and public competence so that you would be forced to go back to school, take laborious examinations and be subjected to a humiliating visit to The Job Centre then I suggest you might be as incensed as I am by the current behaviour in the City of London.
Nothing good will come from RDR and by splitting the regulator into four pieces I fear more hydra's will evolve. Meanwhile have some sympathy for the innocent hard working people effected by this, their families and 10's of '000s of clients mesmorised by this appalling arrogance. Democracy and fair play used to be a by-word of how the City used to operate. It also used to be what the old Tory party stood for.
Your once obediant servant,
Richard Hoblyn
Thursday, 5 January 2012
Review 4Q 2011 4th January 2012
“Markets today are ‘one big giant ETF’ (Exchange Traded Fund).” -Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading in New York on Bloomberg TV 21st December 2011
Over the last few years there has clearly been a disconnect in capital markets between how stocks should behave based on solid earnings numbers and the short-term behaviour of traders and market makers who appear to be often in a different universe to investors and money managers. The interview with Joe Saluzzi confirmed my suspicions that computer generated trading based on algarithms has now created a tail wagging scenario that is unhealthy for capitalism. The interview comments on the thin layer of liquidity in capital markets, the influence of circuit breakers, hyper-second trading, the lack of IPO’s and concludes that another ‘flash crash’ (defined as a quick 10-15 minute correction of >10%) as witnessed on 6th May could indeed occur quite soon. All the hallmarks for this are in place as the world focuses on the EuroZone and its difficulties. But there are, of course, other possible black swan events out there such as Iran or North Korea (some more sabre rattling is predicted with their cousins in the south) as well as a harder landing for China. The year 2011 indeed was a very dark year for investors (even Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway was -4.7%) but I doubt 2012 will be that different. Of course the thought of 50% of The Beatles (possibly) opening the festivities at the London Olympics might just freshen up investors later in the summer but some nasty events could occur in 1 H 2012.
As I write the bankers at UniCredit in Italy are undertaking a 43% discounted Euros7.5bn rights issue. Their timing surprisingly is quite good as markets are currently looking for some New Year ‘Vim’ (Latin for ‘strength’, hence the old advert adage “Vim gives new strength to your wash”) but of course the real reason relates to what is and has been happening in bond markets over the festive period. Most main parties in the EuroZone have tested the waters ahead of what is likely to be a problematic period. To date Germany, Spain, France & Italy have already issued some bonds ahead of the bigger roll-overs scheduled mainly for February/March. The big question though is whether the current yields of 4-7% offer investors ample reward and whether these roll-overs can get filled. Any further hiccup in the EuroZone could easily send potential investors to the sidelines and continue the Euro’s slide into eventual oblivion. As an aside I saw one shop on my local French channel just last night accepting the ‘old’ french Franc from customers; maybe they know something markets don’t! Again as I write this an email has just dropped in from an institutional contact in Geneva suggesting that Greece has threatened to exit the EuroZone within 3 months unless Euros130billion as promised in October is forthcoming. It’s already hotting up then!
Alot of what has already been discussed throughout 2011 and beforehand is coming to a head. The predicted second banking crisis still appears to be around the corner as especially EuroZone banks try to strengthen their capital ratios ahead of Basle. Sarkozy and Merkel seem to be continuing their dinner dates (much amusement on YouTube) and politics again seems to be taking the spotlight away from the economic reality show. In the EuroZone negative growth is forecast (France 1 Q 12 estimate is -0.1% GDP contraction) whilst in UK a trawl along the bottom is likely as consumers feel the pinch (just look at Next today). The recession continually being discussed in the media appears to be here already. The old derivatives timebomb is still ticking as the global exposure again reaches US$700 trillion. The issues over credit ratings never disappear with France on permanent watch; how long can it be before the 3 main agencies sharpen their swords on France and Spain? There is ,however, some sparkle in the US economy despite the 8.6% official US unemployment rate (15-20% unofficially); the consensus S&P forecast does look encouraging though at +7.2% but these same forecasters got most of their 2011 forecasts hopelessly wrong. Having said that the US$ greenback and markets do provide some short-term protection from the Euro & £sterling although nothing whatsoever tempts me to buy US Treasuries on a yield below 2% (against inflation of circa 4-5%) and a budget deficit of now alarmingly US$15trillion +.
Indeed the only credible and sensible investment themes for 2012 are to continue to buy gold in one form or another, oil shares (I still expect some rotation out of Royal Dutch Shell into BP and other majors at some juncture), Africa and other emerging markets (I particularly like Russia and Brazil in preference to India and China), solid international investment trusts, New Capital Wealthy Nations Bond Fund (over 7%) and up to 25% holding cash (in a mix of currencies in addition to £stg & US$) but avoiding the Euro at all costs. The oil price could be the surprise package this year and could trade in $85-120 range; any fall hereon could well kick start the US economy and ignite already moderately positive US earnings which is why forecasters are bullish. I’m not convinced by this argument though which is why I prefer to remain relatively liquid. Our friends in Iran could well throw a spanner in the works if the current aircraft carrier jibes are anything to be taken seriously…which they are.
It remains to be seen whether the EuroZone, the ECB, the IMF & EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) et al can work efficiently together and possibly gain enough momentum to raise enough Euros to bail the debtors out, in the right order. It’s possible that up to Euros3trillion could be QE’d but this must be done in cohesion without individual sovereign and bank failures.
With regard to stock selection amongst the oil majors I still continue to look to buy Royal Dutch Shell at closer to £16-20 & BP on dips nearer £4. Amongst oils I like the look of Ophir (having taken over Dominion), Exillion and even possibly Essar provides some value here. Vallares are now Genel and are out of favour in the short-term; more excitement from Hayward and Nat Rothschild though is expected. All the smaller explorers such as Soco, Hardy O&G, Premier Oil and Heritage should start to respond as the year progresses. Amongst gas stories I like Encana at under $20 and notice that there is some impending excitement amongst other Canadian gas plays (Edge Resources is due to arrive on AIM shortly). Elsewhere in FTSE as usual I am extremely cautious although some previous targets to buy at have been reached. I’d prefer to look at BAE Systems nearer 260p, GlaxoSmithKline nearer £13, Sainsbury nearer 265p, HSBC nearer 460p and Standard Chartered nearer £12. My preferred 2011/2012 tip is the inter-dealer/broker Tullett Prebon and at 271p yielding over 5.7% this is still a compelling buy being a possible takeover candidate too. Selectively an investment trust approach seems more prudent and investments in JPMorgan Claverhouse, Henderson Far East, Schroder Oriental, Securities Trust of Scotland and Merchants Trust are still compelling for income investors whereas emerging markets trusts such as JPMorgan India, JPMorgan Brazil, JPMorgan Russia and BlackRock Latin could also be considered. There isn’t a suitable trust for the Final Frontier, Africa so a selected basket of equities is preferred here. In particular I still like Randgold, African Barrick, Afren and Shanta. Elsewhere globally I am still persevering with Patagonia Gold, Orosur, Peninsular and Anglo Pacific remains a classic royalty play that provides some variety. As far as the rest of the UK market is concerned I’m being very selective and prefer international equities.
With sideways volatility again expected during 2012 I continue to encourage portfolio weightings such as 0% Fixed Interest (a bond implosion is forecast), 20-35% cash, maximum 80% equities (overseas earners mainly incl. 25%-40% in precious metals stocks, a spread of investment trusts). Again it’s important to restress that investors are entering an era where stagnant growth (& contraction) in the west could be offset by continued growth in emerging and frontiers markets. The correlation between deflation and inflation needs to be watched closely which is why there’s a growing case for increasing equity exposure especially on any decline across markets. The level of the coming decline is the key and I still feel that 10-30% is possible which implies 4,450 on FTSE100. I think we are about to witness the SPUTNIK MOMENT as has already been predicted. The contrarian view of course is if the EU & US manages to convince markets that a continued bumbling QE practice should be the order of the day. If that happens then expect a much higher S&P and a similar review this time next year predicting the demise of the Euro (again). There are alarming similarities with 1930-1933 which are coming to fruition.
If the Liverpool likely lads do put on a prescribed sensation at the Olympics opening ceremony then Team GB can do no wrong even if no Golds are achieved.
However, 2012 will indeed be a “Long & Winding Road!.......................
Over the last few years there has clearly been a disconnect in capital markets between how stocks should behave based on solid earnings numbers and the short-term behaviour of traders and market makers who appear to be often in a different universe to investors and money managers. The interview with Joe Saluzzi confirmed my suspicions that computer generated trading based on algarithms has now created a tail wagging scenario that is unhealthy for capitalism. The interview comments on the thin layer of liquidity in capital markets, the influence of circuit breakers, hyper-second trading, the lack of IPO’s and concludes that another ‘flash crash’ (defined as a quick 10-15 minute correction of >10%) as witnessed on 6th May could indeed occur quite soon. All the hallmarks for this are in place as the world focuses on the EuroZone and its difficulties. But there are, of course, other possible black swan events out there such as Iran or North Korea (some more sabre rattling is predicted with their cousins in the south) as well as a harder landing for China. The year 2011 indeed was a very dark year for investors (even Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway was -4.7%) but I doubt 2012 will be that different. Of course the thought of 50% of The Beatles (possibly) opening the festivities at the London Olympics might just freshen up investors later in the summer but some nasty events could occur in 1 H 2012.
As I write the bankers at UniCredit in Italy are undertaking a 43% discounted Euros7.5bn rights issue. Their timing surprisingly is quite good as markets are currently looking for some New Year ‘Vim’ (Latin for ‘strength’, hence the old advert adage “Vim gives new strength to your wash”) but of course the real reason relates to what is and has been happening in bond markets over the festive period. Most main parties in the EuroZone have tested the waters ahead of what is likely to be a problematic period. To date Germany, Spain, France & Italy have already issued some bonds ahead of the bigger roll-overs scheduled mainly for February/March. The big question though is whether the current yields of 4-7% offer investors ample reward and whether these roll-overs can get filled. Any further hiccup in the EuroZone could easily send potential investors to the sidelines and continue the Euro’s slide into eventual oblivion. As an aside I saw one shop on my local French channel just last night accepting the ‘old’ french Franc from customers; maybe they know something markets don’t! Again as I write this an email has just dropped in from an institutional contact in Geneva suggesting that Greece has threatened to exit the EuroZone within 3 months unless Euros130billion as promised in October is forthcoming. It’s already hotting up then!
Alot of what has already been discussed throughout 2011 and beforehand is coming to a head. The predicted second banking crisis still appears to be around the corner as especially EuroZone banks try to strengthen their capital ratios ahead of Basle. Sarkozy and Merkel seem to be continuing their dinner dates (much amusement on YouTube) and politics again seems to be taking the spotlight away from the economic reality show. In the EuroZone negative growth is forecast (France 1 Q 12 estimate is -0.1% GDP contraction) whilst in UK a trawl along the bottom is likely as consumers feel the pinch (just look at Next today). The recession continually being discussed in the media appears to be here already. The old derivatives timebomb is still ticking as the global exposure again reaches US$700 trillion. The issues over credit ratings never disappear with France on permanent watch; how long can it be before the 3 main agencies sharpen their swords on France and Spain? There is ,however, some sparkle in the US economy despite the 8.6% official US unemployment rate (15-20% unofficially); the consensus S&P forecast does look encouraging though at +7.2% but these same forecasters got most of their 2011 forecasts hopelessly wrong. Having said that the US$ greenback and markets do provide some short-term protection from the Euro & £sterling although nothing whatsoever tempts me to buy US Treasuries on a yield below 2% (against inflation of circa 4-5%) and a budget deficit of now alarmingly US$15trillion +.
Indeed the only credible and sensible investment themes for 2012 are to continue to buy gold in one form or another, oil shares (I still expect some rotation out of Royal Dutch Shell into BP and other majors at some juncture), Africa and other emerging markets (I particularly like Russia and Brazil in preference to India and China), solid international investment trusts, New Capital Wealthy Nations Bond Fund (over 7%) and up to 25% holding cash (in a mix of currencies in addition to £stg & US$) but avoiding the Euro at all costs. The oil price could be the surprise package this year and could trade in $85-120 range; any fall hereon could well kick start the US economy and ignite already moderately positive US earnings which is why forecasters are bullish. I’m not convinced by this argument though which is why I prefer to remain relatively liquid. Our friends in Iran could well throw a spanner in the works if the current aircraft carrier jibes are anything to be taken seriously…which they are.
It remains to be seen whether the EuroZone, the ECB, the IMF & EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) et al can work efficiently together and possibly gain enough momentum to raise enough Euros to bail the debtors out, in the right order. It’s possible that up to Euros3trillion could be QE’d but this must be done in cohesion without individual sovereign and bank failures.
With regard to stock selection amongst the oil majors I still continue to look to buy Royal Dutch Shell at closer to £16-20 & BP on dips nearer £4. Amongst oils I like the look of Ophir (having taken over Dominion), Exillion and even possibly Essar provides some value here. Vallares are now Genel and are out of favour in the short-term; more excitement from Hayward and Nat Rothschild though is expected. All the smaller explorers such as Soco, Hardy O&G, Premier Oil and Heritage should start to respond as the year progresses. Amongst gas stories I like Encana at under $20 and notice that there is some impending excitement amongst other Canadian gas plays (Edge Resources is due to arrive on AIM shortly). Elsewhere in FTSE as usual I am extremely cautious although some previous targets to buy at have been reached. I’d prefer to look at BAE Systems nearer 260p, GlaxoSmithKline nearer £13, Sainsbury nearer 265p, HSBC nearer 460p and Standard Chartered nearer £12. My preferred 2011/2012 tip is the inter-dealer/broker Tullett Prebon and at 271p yielding over 5.7% this is still a compelling buy being a possible takeover candidate too. Selectively an investment trust approach seems more prudent and investments in JPMorgan Claverhouse, Henderson Far East, Schroder Oriental, Securities Trust of Scotland and Merchants Trust are still compelling for income investors whereas emerging markets trusts such as JPMorgan India, JPMorgan Brazil, JPMorgan Russia and BlackRock Latin could also be considered. There isn’t a suitable trust for the Final Frontier, Africa so a selected basket of equities is preferred here. In particular I still like Randgold, African Barrick, Afren and Shanta. Elsewhere globally I am still persevering with Patagonia Gold, Orosur, Peninsular and Anglo Pacific remains a classic royalty play that provides some variety. As far as the rest of the UK market is concerned I’m being very selective and prefer international equities.
With sideways volatility again expected during 2012 I continue to encourage portfolio weightings such as 0% Fixed Interest (a bond implosion is forecast), 20-35% cash, maximum 80% equities (overseas earners mainly incl. 25%-40% in precious metals stocks, a spread of investment trusts). Again it’s important to restress that investors are entering an era where stagnant growth (& contraction) in the west could be offset by continued growth in emerging and frontiers markets. The correlation between deflation and inflation needs to be watched closely which is why there’s a growing case for increasing equity exposure especially on any decline across markets. The level of the coming decline is the key and I still feel that 10-30% is possible which implies 4,450 on FTSE100. I think we are about to witness the SPUTNIK MOMENT as has already been predicted. The contrarian view of course is if the EU & US manages to convince markets that a continued bumbling QE practice should be the order of the day. If that happens then expect a much higher S&P and a similar review this time next year predicting the demise of the Euro (again). There are alarming similarities with 1930-1933 which are coming to fruition.
If the Liverpool likely lads do put on a prescribed sensation at the Olympics opening ceremony then Team GB can do no wrong even if no Golds are achieved.
However, 2012 will indeed be a “Long & Winding Road!.......................
Friday, 9 December 2011
Europe isolates itself from the UK as reality sets in again
I've been listening to the news on Bloomberg and Sky News again which is never a good thing to do on a Friday. The pro-Euro brigade and indeed our own media are suggesting that DaveCam has isolated UK from Europe. Well, I've got good news for the millions of kids who will grow up on the great isle. Yesterday I took a ferry from Dover to Calais in quite rough seas and I can confirm that the distance between UK and Europe is getting greater. There is indeed coastal erosion.
At last DaveCam has shown some leadership and listened to those with greater understanding of the great Euro experiment. Apologies to those who hate the word GREAT as indeed I do too. Our cousins across the Atlantic Ocean seem to be more concerned about US banking losses in our 'City' right now. What a bunch of late developers! Weren't they the people who woke up to the progress of fascism in the last war around 2 years after us? Weren't they the nation who bankrolled the IRA? or am I missing something here?
For record I don't want a SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP with America or anyone in Europe either so the isolation that these morons speak of is a good thing. The club that Angela & Sarko have created has the look of a few other clubs that I don't really want to join too. I take the view that Europe is NOW isolated from us NOT the other way round. If for instance the french kids don't like this new isolated island they can give up their cushy jobs and get back on the Euro Star. Personally I cannot any longer tolerate this nonsense about OUR failure to support the Euro experiment (for record we've been net contributors). It's a toxic experiment that never got out of the laboratory. Fortunately DaveCam's Eton chemistry lessons were attended whereas I suspect Clegg went walk about for the Chem lessons at Westminster. Who knows? & frankly who cares?
The EURO is a d e a d z o n e.
I know.....I live in France. Lovely countryside just a great shame about all the paperwork and extraordinary prejudice shown to anyone foreign.,
It's GREAT to be part of the COMMONWEALTH OF NATIONS again. Now we can all get back to trading with anyone who wants to do honest business over the course of a proper working week.
StopPress***
For record not much happened in the exchange today. European bond yields went up & down and now everyone is trying to work out who will buy their next tranche of bonds. Don't bother emailing me the details Angela or Sarko as I regret I don't invest in laborious franchises.
Message to Bloomberg...get real! & stop being so typically late American.
At last DaveCam has shown some leadership and listened to those with greater understanding of the great Euro experiment. Apologies to those who hate the word GREAT as indeed I do too. Our cousins across the Atlantic Ocean seem to be more concerned about US banking losses in our 'City' right now. What a bunch of late developers! Weren't they the people who woke up to the progress of fascism in the last war around 2 years after us? Weren't they the nation who bankrolled the IRA? or am I missing something here?
For record I don't want a SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP with America or anyone in Europe either so the isolation that these morons speak of is a good thing. The club that Angela & Sarko have created has the look of a few other clubs that I don't really want to join too. I take the view that Europe is NOW isolated from us NOT the other way round. If for instance the french kids don't like this new isolated island they can give up their cushy jobs and get back on the Euro Star. Personally I cannot any longer tolerate this nonsense about OUR failure to support the Euro experiment (for record we've been net contributors). It's a toxic experiment that never got out of the laboratory. Fortunately DaveCam's Eton chemistry lessons were attended whereas I suspect Clegg went walk about for the Chem lessons at Westminster. Who knows? & frankly who cares?
The EURO is a d e a d z o n e.
I know.....I live in France. Lovely countryside just a great shame about all the paperwork and extraordinary prejudice shown to anyone foreign.,
It's GREAT to be part of the COMMONWEALTH OF NATIONS again. Now we can all get back to trading with anyone who wants to do honest business over the course of a proper working week.
StopPress***
For record not much happened in the exchange today. European bond yields went up & down and now everyone is trying to work out who will buy their next tranche of bonds. Don't bother emailing me the details Angela or Sarko as I regret I don't invest in laborious franchises.
Message to Bloomberg...get real! & stop being so typically late American.
Tuesday, 22 November 2011
"MOST businesses are doing well..." -Bloomberg
During the working day I have Bloomberg TV on most of the time in the background. I pick up alot of themes and newsflow from the station and occasionally flick across to BBC, SkyNews, CNBC and even Russia Today where a certain Max Keiser livens up the debates of the day.
Today Max commented on the regulatory scandal at MF Global claiming that it could get bigger than the Lehman's debacle. Who knows? But the disappearance of client assets on a grand scale just confirms my view that government guarantees, bailouts, FSCS assistance, professional indemnities and all other types of guarantees are pretty worthless and useless at the end of the day. Just tell the pensioners at Equitable Life that the regulatory system designed to protect them is working. I doubt anyone with any sense of proportion could possibly agree that there has been some equitable fair play here. Max and his colleague, Stacey Herbert then went on to comment on Virgin Money's acquisition of the 'good' part of Northern Rock from the Treasury. Virgin paid £747m ( a jumbo jet amount Mr Branson!) for the 'good bank' leaving the tax payer holding the 'bad bank' equating to around £21billion (of indebtedness). Interestingly the acquisition sum was approx.a shortfall of £653m against what the taxpayer effectively paid for Northern Rock. Most financial commentators have concluded that loan books for non-derivative based businesses have appreciated since the depths of the credit crunch so there's a curious question mark as to how Mr Branson achieved what on the face of it is a privileged discount purchase. Politically it contradicts what Labour & the ConLib coalition have previously said about taxpayers retrieving their investments in these banks. It seems that the phrase "Too Big To Fail" has been replaced by "Too Easy To Buy".This trend of high profile people acquiring businesses at attractive levels is not, however, confined to UK. In USA Warren Buffett has achieved similar purchases and has indicated a desire to acquire more businesses. Presumably like Mr Branson there will be deals struck at the highest level and certain squid like bankers will support these deals but what is concerning I think with the VirginMoney/Northern Rock deal is the total lack of financial SUITABILITY here. The FSA seem to have ignored their own rules here for ("fat") FEES by the looks of it. I haven't heard that there have been bus loads of bankers lining up for this 'good' bank customer base and yet an airline operator apparently is somehow more than suitable. What a deal for the man from Holland Park!
I'm surprised that Max Keiser didn't say to his colleague, Stacey Herbert...."The lady doth protest too much, methinks". What a missed opportunity Max!
The regular impressive earnings numbers coming out of US big business combined with dividend payouts and the phrase "cash generative" lends support to the lie that ALL businesses are ..."doing well" which seems to be the thinking behind most market reflections on Bloomberg. It's easier for Producers and Editors to project the feelgood factor than project reality. These stations and newspapers rely on advertising revenues from the very businesses that are ..."doing well" presumably at the expense of consumers everywhere. Now this does explain to a degree why there are people protesting everywhere.
As we all know there are millions of people operating SME's/small partnerships and self-employed fighting to stay alive. "Most businesses" in the smaller arena are actually struggling. The AIM index suggests that those listed have had their share prices decline -76% since the all time high achieved in Feb 1999. Since the pre-credit crunch high on 30th April 2006 AIM stocks declined -46% and since the high this year on 1st February the AIM index has declined -30%. None of these statistics imply either that there is a healthy exchange nor indeed a healthy economy especially for smaller businesses. The same trend is apparent in all western economies which again explains why people are protesting.
Could this be the real reason why VirginMoney has been given the green light on Northern Rock I wonder? Come on Mr Branson put some spice into the UK SME's although I have a horrible feeling that a sale of VirginMoney could be just around the corner. Or even a float for VirginMoney although after Mr Branson's last attempt at a City float in the '80s he may decline the invitation.
"Small firms' £6bn bill for red tape" was just one headline in the DM last week. Plenty of external consultants are soaking this up as a result of new legislation. This is great for small bands of consultants but very bad for the investment community, especially shareholders. The article goes on to say...."Research by the Forum of Private Business FPB reveals that almost a third of the £16.8bn annual red tape (so the headline was only a partial truth in itself) bill borne by small and medium-sized enterprises consists of consultants fees.....Red tape, compliance costs, incl steep consultancy fees, are hindering job creation and, by extension, economic growth. Unlike larger companies, small firms often have to pay for external consultants."
Welcome to the real world Forum for Private Business. You are eligible to join ENTERPRISE BRITAIN!
******Stop Press******
I've just heard that $1.2bn of client assets have gone walk about...so much for good compliance! When are people going to realise that all this COMPLIANCE/REGULATION is part of the problem?
Today Max commented on the regulatory scandal at MF Global claiming that it could get bigger than the Lehman's debacle. Who knows? But the disappearance of client assets on a grand scale just confirms my view that government guarantees, bailouts, FSCS assistance, professional indemnities and all other types of guarantees are pretty worthless and useless at the end of the day. Just tell the pensioners at Equitable Life that the regulatory system designed to protect them is working. I doubt anyone with any sense of proportion could possibly agree that there has been some equitable fair play here. Max and his colleague, Stacey Herbert then went on to comment on Virgin Money's acquisition of the 'good' part of Northern Rock from the Treasury. Virgin paid £747m ( a jumbo jet amount Mr Branson!) for the 'good bank' leaving the tax payer holding the 'bad bank' equating to around £21billion (of indebtedness). Interestingly the acquisition sum was approx.a shortfall of £653m against what the taxpayer effectively paid for Northern Rock. Most financial commentators have concluded that loan books for non-derivative based businesses have appreciated since the depths of the credit crunch so there's a curious question mark as to how Mr Branson achieved what on the face of it is a privileged discount purchase. Politically it contradicts what Labour & the ConLib coalition have previously said about taxpayers retrieving their investments in these banks. It seems that the phrase "Too Big To Fail" has been replaced by "Too Easy To Buy".This trend of high profile people acquiring businesses at attractive levels is not, however, confined to UK. In USA Warren Buffett has achieved similar purchases and has indicated a desire to acquire more businesses. Presumably like Mr Branson there will be deals struck at the highest level and certain squid like bankers will support these deals but what is concerning I think with the VirginMoney/Northern Rock deal is the total lack of financial SUITABILITY here. The FSA seem to have ignored their own rules here for ("fat") FEES by the looks of it. I haven't heard that there have been bus loads of bankers lining up for this 'good' bank customer base and yet an airline operator apparently is somehow more than suitable. What a deal for the man from Holland Park!
I'm surprised that Max Keiser didn't say to his colleague, Stacey Herbert...."The lady doth protest too much, methinks". What a missed opportunity Max!
The regular impressive earnings numbers coming out of US big business combined with dividend payouts and the phrase "cash generative" lends support to the lie that ALL businesses are ..."doing well" which seems to be the thinking behind most market reflections on Bloomberg. It's easier for Producers and Editors to project the feelgood factor than project reality. These stations and newspapers rely on advertising revenues from the very businesses that are ..."doing well" presumably at the expense of consumers everywhere. Now this does explain to a degree why there are people protesting everywhere.
As we all know there are millions of people operating SME's/small partnerships and self-employed fighting to stay alive. "Most businesses" in the smaller arena are actually struggling. The AIM index suggests that those listed have had their share prices decline -76% since the all time high achieved in Feb 1999. Since the pre-credit crunch high on 30th April 2006 AIM stocks declined -46% and since the high this year on 1st February the AIM index has declined -30%. None of these statistics imply either that there is a healthy exchange nor indeed a healthy economy especially for smaller businesses. The same trend is apparent in all western economies which again explains why people are protesting.
Could this be the real reason why VirginMoney has been given the green light on Northern Rock I wonder? Come on Mr Branson put some spice into the UK SME's although I have a horrible feeling that a sale of VirginMoney could be just around the corner. Or even a float for VirginMoney although after Mr Branson's last attempt at a City float in the '80s he may decline the invitation.
"Small firms' £6bn bill for red tape" was just one headline in the DM last week. Plenty of external consultants are soaking this up as a result of new legislation. This is great for small bands of consultants but very bad for the investment community, especially shareholders. The article goes on to say...."Research by the Forum of Private Business FPB reveals that almost a third of the £16.8bn annual red tape (so the headline was only a partial truth in itself) bill borne by small and medium-sized enterprises consists of consultants fees.....Red tape, compliance costs, incl steep consultancy fees, are hindering job creation and, by extension, economic growth. Unlike larger companies, small firms often have to pay for external consultants."
Welcome to the real world Forum for Private Business. You are eligible to join ENTERPRISE BRITAIN!
******Stop Press******
I've just heard that $1.2bn of client assets have gone walk about...so much for good compliance! When are people going to realise that all this COMPLIANCE/REGULATION is part of the problem?
Wednesday, 16 November 2011
At what point are we at in the "GFC"?
I read William Rees-Mogg's article in the Daily Mail entitled "We are stuck on a wheel of misfortune" dated 4th September 2011 over the weekend. Like many newspapers, magazines, tip sheets and research in my office and household they tend to mount up at an alarming rate this time of year and I half watch TV programs like the 'Antiques Roadshow' whilst syphoning off the majority of unnecessary print copy for eventual utilisation by my sturdy Clearview woodburner. This article was one of the few that have been retained.
I like Rees-Mogg's articles and read his biblical hardback "The Daily Reckoning" when it was first published a few years ago. In it he said.......
"Business life tends to have a rhythm. One of the reasons older investors tend to have an intuitive advantage over their younger colleagues is that their experience of past cycles in markets offsets the greater technological understanding of younger investors." Rees-Mogg and his co-author, Jim Davidson go on to say.....
"It is also important that people should understand that in business 'the trees do not grow to the sky' -meaning things cannot continue past their natural boundaries - a favourite maxim of Winston Churchill, which he applied to war rather than to business".
The "GFC" incidentally is now being described by many pundits as a WAR. In fact I've even heard it referred to as WW3.
The Daily Reckoning author, Bill Bonner (another colleague of Rees-Mogg's) today in his daily reckoning suggests that there's a major conspiracy afoot. In essence (my view) is that what we are experiencing is an economic war between those who believe in proper 'freedom of markets' and those who believe that politicians and architects of the "GFC" can resolve and solve the complexity of the problems. Bill Bonner says....
"Most have had no exposure to monetary history or what money really is. The new “Moses” generation will have to re-learn the lessons of monetary history before the world can enter a new era of sound money and stable economic growth." Alf Field then goes on to say....
"The modern generation will have to face some brutal truths as the world deals with the ongoing global financial crisis. The following are the brutal truths that apply to the USA and the world:
THE BRUTAL TRUTHS
1.The slate needs to be wiped clean and a new sound monetary system introduced.
2.That will require the elimination of all debt, deficits, unfunded social entitlements, the US Dollar as Reserve currency, and the big one, the $600 trillion of derivatives.
3.To eliminate these problems by default and deflation will cause a banking collapse and untold economic pain, leading to riots and political change.
4.Politicians are appointed for relatively short terms and opt for the easy solutions.
5.While politicians continue to have the ability to create new money at will, they will do so in order to prevent a melt down on their watch.
6.Consequently the odds point to governments wiping the slate clean by generating enough new money to eventually destroy their currencies.
7.The new international monetary system is likely to involve precious metals. It will have to be money that people trust and that governments cannot create at will.
This has happened many times before, dating back nearly 900 years to the first paper money introduced in China. History is full of attempts to use paper or fiat money, all of which ended in the destruction of that money. The last century saw virtually every South American country “wipe the slate clean” and begin again with a new money. Some did it several times. The Romans faced a similar financial crisis and resorted to reducing the silver content of the Denarius, eventually by about 95%, before people refused to accept the Roman coins."
----------------
If anyone has read some of my earlier blogs there appears to be a pattern emerging here.
More on Gold & the "GFC" later!
ps "GFC" = Global Financial Crisis in case anyone was wondering
I like Rees-Mogg's articles and read his biblical hardback "The Daily Reckoning" when it was first published a few years ago. In it he said.......
"Business life tends to have a rhythm. One of the reasons older investors tend to have an intuitive advantage over their younger colleagues is that their experience of past cycles in markets offsets the greater technological understanding of younger investors." Rees-Mogg and his co-author, Jim Davidson go on to say.....
"It is also important that people should understand that in business 'the trees do not grow to the sky' -meaning things cannot continue past their natural boundaries - a favourite maxim of Winston Churchill, which he applied to war rather than to business".
The "GFC" incidentally is now being described by many pundits as a WAR. In fact I've even heard it referred to as WW3.
The Daily Reckoning author, Bill Bonner (another colleague of Rees-Mogg's) today in his daily reckoning suggests that there's a major conspiracy afoot. In essence (my view) is that what we are experiencing is an economic war between those who believe in proper 'freedom of markets' and those who believe that politicians and architects of the "GFC" can resolve and solve the complexity of the problems. Bill Bonner says....
- Europe faces its “toughest hour since WWII”, says Angela Merkel. What does she propose? More centralisation. Centralization got Europe into this mess – harmonising interest rates so that the Greeks and Italians could borrow more. And now, more centralization, she believes, will get it out.
- Europe is taking no chances. This debt problem is a slugger. What to do about it?
- Who knows more about debt problems than anyone else? The people who cause them, of course. So, under great pressure from the centralised European authorities Greece got rid of its Papandreou, after the man had the gall to suggest letting democracy work. He wanted the people to vote on further austerity measures. It replaced him with Papademos… a guy who won’t make the mistake of deferring to the masses. After all, he was vice-president of the European Central Bank for years. And he taught at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.
- Meanwhile, Italy too has been forced to get rid of its popular, but difficult to control, elected leader – Silvio Berlusconi. It has put in a company man. Yes, a company man. What company? Goldman Sachs, of course. The new fellow, Mario Monti is an ex-Goldman guy. And so is the new fellow at the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. Monti was also an EU commissioner. Draghi ran the Bank of Italy as the nation built up one of the world’s biggest piles of debt. Then, when Italy’s cost of borrowing shot over 7%, in came Monti and Draghi.
- It is almost as if they planned it that way. Who’s the biggest seller of debt on the planet? We don’t know… but Goldman Sachs has to be up in the rankings somewhere. You’ll recall it was Goldman that helped Greece structure its debt so that it could abide by the letter of its treaty engagements with Europe but totally thumb its nose at the spirit of it.
- And now the debt has blown up… and the Goldman boys are on the job, managing the mess they were so instrumental in creating.
"Most have had no exposure to monetary history or what money really is. The new “Moses” generation will have to re-learn the lessons of monetary history before the world can enter a new era of sound money and stable economic growth." Alf Field then goes on to say....
"The modern generation will have to face some brutal truths as the world deals with the ongoing global financial crisis. The following are the brutal truths that apply to the USA and the world:
THE BRUTAL TRUTHS
1.The slate needs to be wiped clean and a new sound monetary system introduced.
2.That will require the elimination of all debt, deficits, unfunded social entitlements, the US Dollar as Reserve currency, and the big one, the $600 trillion of derivatives.
3.To eliminate these problems by default and deflation will cause a banking collapse and untold economic pain, leading to riots and political change.
4.Politicians are appointed for relatively short terms and opt for the easy solutions.
5.While politicians continue to have the ability to create new money at will, they will do so in order to prevent a melt down on their watch.
6.Consequently the odds point to governments wiping the slate clean by generating enough new money to eventually destroy their currencies.
7.The new international monetary system is likely to involve precious metals. It will have to be money that people trust and that governments cannot create at will.
This has happened many times before, dating back nearly 900 years to the first paper money introduced in China. History is full of attempts to use paper or fiat money, all of which ended in the destruction of that money. The last century saw virtually every South American country “wipe the slate clean” and begin again with a new money. Some did it several times. The Romans faced a similar financial crisis and resorted to reducing the silver content of the Denarius, eventually by about 95%, before people refused to accept the Roman coins."
----------------
If anyone has read some of my earlier blogs there appears to be a pattern emerging here.
More on Gold & the "GFC" later!
ps "GFC" = Global Financial Crisis in case anyone was wondering
Saturday, 12 November 2011
"Euro Zone Mode 2" or as I prefer, "It's time to sit down with our folk from the Commonwealth & have a cuppa'" !
The headline that has just dropped into my INBOX reads;-
France is drawing up plans to create a breakaway organisation of Eurozone countries with its own treaty, parliament and headquarters – a move that could significantly undermine the existing European Union. The proposal would see a formal "union within a union" created, but would lead to a significant deterioration in Britain's influence in Europe. David Cameron is drawing up urgent plans to stop Britain being "railroaded" into agreeing to decisions taken by the new Eurozone bloc. France and Germany are understood to want to strengthen the union between Eurozone countries with new taxes and legal measures to stop nations borrowing and spending too much in future, says The Telegraph.
My immediate knee jerk reaction to a friendly client this morning was as follows;-
***so France create the EU, can't get their way & now want to create another Union, they really are rather spineless***
----------------------------
Another friend has Skyped me as follows;-
"Resume of what's happening in one of the nations favourite British TV programmes read in the TV Times just now:" Masood is disgusted to find Yusef in Zainab's house." Do I really live in England or have I somehow mysteriously been transported half way across the world?"
----------------------------
It has struck me that both these communications/opinions are indeed related in some way. Last night on Newsnight Ms Kirsty Wark talked of technocrats taking over Europe. As you all know I've decided to speak up and call this the "rise of fascism" because what we're all experiencing is in fact a legalised driven mode of fascism throughout Europe and various hybrid politically motivated organisations are spreading like wild fire by use of cell phones,social network sites, etc and of course there's plenty of constricting new legislation and absurd regulation to go with it. The ordinary citizens are fed up with rhetoric and decisions that they see no material benefit from. Of course if you're a civil servant or operate within our controlled media you'll more likely applaud it (note Peter Oborne is a rare lone voice out there amongst the swathe of you tell them what I say journalists and newscasters). You even have to get permission to revolt these days. Well I'm revolting (no laughing matter)!
If indeed the little hungarian who runs France gets his way then maybe (maybe NOT) the UK will get left behind. Personally I take the view that our loss(es) from the EU whether we're one leg in one leg out shake it all about or firmly OUT makes very little difference to the slowdown that we're about to witness. Losses today may translate to new opportunities tomorrow. One thing is certain though is this....if France does suggest or even just get a miniscule the way down this new road then our beloved leader, yet another bloody Scotsman (note my grand-mother was scottish, a MacArthur in fact) must and I emphasis must allow the British people (whoever, whatever, whereever we are) a chance to VOTE either Yes or No to the existing EU that already most of us don't want and especially to a NEW EU that our friends 'Les Grenouilles' now suggest. Living in France has turned me into an anti-EU fanatic although I must confess I have much admiration for my neighbours as they suggest they do too to 'Les Roast Boeuf''.
So let's get back to my friends comments regarding the asian soap on UK television shall we? Actually I have no problem with allowing asians a national voice on British television but the point I think my friend was making is that there is too much voice and assistance given to the British ex-commonwealth community living on our shores. In fact just as an observation the number of english PS Oxbridge types has diminished dramatically to be often replaced by either British with commonwealth roots or those more akin to the Big Brother house. You can call me an alarmist, even a racist, but I cannot believe that I'm the only one who has spotted that the 'opportunity' that DaveCamClegg, Brown & Blair so proudly boast of seems to have turned on its head. Take the best TV news, 'Channel4News' fronted by Jon Snow (he of the absurd tie!) who is without doubt the No.1 newscaster (of the old school) remaining I think, well he is surrounded by a team of asian newscasters (their names escape me) who are really excellent BUT surely there are a few Oxbridge WASP types that could do these jobs equally well (?), n'est pas? I'm expecting an avalanche of complaints on this but hehhhhh it's just an observation and for record I have many west indian, asian and arab friends and clients BUT I don't expect them to be broadcasting their version of world events en masse whilst I'm supping a cuppa.
I'd like to hear what the 'lost generation' think! This phrase may be new to some of you but this is my generation who were brought up on Cliff Michelmore, The Sky At Night, the Beatles, Twiggy, the race to the moon, flower-power, bell bottom jeans and of course the 'mini-skirt'. Being so frustrated in the '70s with Unions causing strikes, the lack of anyone to fight (many of us agreed with McCartney's ditty "Give Ireland Back to the Irish" so didn't enlist), seeing our parents getting wiped out by really high taxation (98% I recollect) what did we do? Well, I'll tell you what we did. We got sucked in to Ted Heath's European Common Market Referendum and almost immediately regretted it so we dressed up as punks or New Wave anti-establishment warchilds. The funny thing is I'm still one of those anti-establishment figures who absolutely hates being told what to do and what I cannot do. I wonder why! Could it be because our forebears fought 2 world wars and constantly opposed hypocrisy from across the channel (except from the Dutch of course ehhh Dirk; for transparency my other grand-mother was a Dutch aristo) to allow the people on the shores of UK to live in harmony between each other. The price of freedom was indeed high as some of the recently released stories coming out from WW2 explain.
So what kind of vision do we as a nation really have? It's pretty confused because our own identity is pretty confused. I have a British Passport, my family are Cornish, I was brought up in the South-East and I live in the EU. My partner was born an Armenian, was brought up in Yerevan, went to Moscow University (where she achieved the rank of Lieutenant in the Russian Army as a translator for when we invaded), has a Russian Passport and is British and lives in EU (I think!). Yup, she has a British Passport too (heck, she'll shoot me for this but I can take it, I'm British, hang on so is she). CONFUSED? And this is the point, none of us really know who we are at the moment. The french believe in Egalite, Fraternite & Liberte and yet are shackled by their bureaucracy. My local farmers ALL hate the EU, Parisians, any foreigner, all claim to be ex-resistance fighters BUT all to a man love the european handouts as they can drive around in brand spanking new 4WD tractors (this is no exaggeration) and wait for it don't really see themselves as being great french patriots because their real roots are different. Many still speak the local patois rather like our cousins over the border in Somerset then.
I prefer to think of myself as a Cornishman and fly the 'Cornish Ensign' whenever I can. It's an unofficial black/white cross cornish flag with a Union Flag in the top left corner. Occasionally I fly the Malawi flag (although they've just changed it again), the french tricolor (to stop the regulars practicising their guillotines), the dutch orange flag which looks more like a tablecloth, the Russian War flag, the Russian flag (to keep the peace), and I have a whole load of others too that I fly on special occasions because I like to remind myself that I'm not really european or British. How can I be British? The inside cover informs me that I as the bearer can "pass freely without let or hindrance and to afford the bearer such assistance and protection as may be necessary". Sorry, but I'm not getting the hang of this DaveCam. Have you tried getting in or out of the UK recently? It's time for a Cornish passport and a fishing vessel I think.
On to more serious subjects though. So as we all know we British, that's Fred, Eric, Tatiana, Sophie, Mohammad and Shane etc etc do really need to decide what we want and pretty damn soon I think. So over to you DaveCam. Please can we have 2 referendums? The first should be a straight GREEN or RED card for the European Union and the second should be phrased differently along the lines of "DO YOU AGREE WITH THE CONCEPT OF BRITISH?" YES or NO.
For record the (former British) Commonwealth is more powerful than the European Union. There are more countries involved, a much bigger population, more diversity, more natural resources, they usually speak our language, sell us tea, play cricket and the only downside that I can see is that they don't let WASP english and cornish in. There's no need to dwell on the EU but there are several things in common that I can think of. These are in short; bureaucrats are mass-producing at an alarming rate and the Germans seem to be at the helm. Who said that? Off with his head.
I'm going for a cuppa!
STOP PRESS....The EU have decided that the (British) Commonwealth no longer exists. They've decided to call it THE EUROPEAN COMMONWEALTH & Albania have just signed up. I'm hoping that Holland will be allowed to join as the UK or whatever it's called these days does need dutch expertise on dykes, flood control, erosion, unpronounciation and their in-depth knowledge of class C drug abuse.
Don't tell him your name Pike!
The keetle is back on.
One lump or two comrade!
Suggestion for DaveCam.......Let's just refer to our ourselves as THE COMMONWEALTH shall we (in fact most people are unaware that is now The Commonwealth of Nations NOT the British Commonwealth)....we can then cut out the word British from everything. I notice that the leading seafarers charity that used to be called the BRITISH SAILORS SOCIETY and then the BRITISH & INTERNATIONAL SAILORS SOCIETY is now known just as THE SAILOR'S SOCIETY....true! Actually with Mozambique (a former Portuguese colony) and Rwanda achieving membership of the Commonwealth a name change to just a UK & COMMONWEALTH PASSPORT seems even more than appropriate.
NOTE...for record THE COMMONWEALTH OF NATIONS is a far bigger trading partner than the European Union. Perhaps we should remind our politicians of this by insisting on a Referendum on the EU whilst at the same time re-examining the status of citizenship in UK. I am sure that I'm not the only one who would prefer a United Kingdom & Commonwealth Passport.
France is drawing up plans to create a breakaway organisation of Eurozone countries with its own treaty, parliament and headquarters – a move that could significantly undermine the existing European Union. The proposal would see a formal "union within a union" created, but would lead to a significant deterioration in Britain's influence in Europe. David Cameron is drawing up urgent plans to stop Britain being "railroaded" into agreeing to decisions taken by the new Eurozone bloc. France and Germany are understood to want to strengthen the union between Eurozone countries with new taxes and legal measures to stop nations borrowing and spending too much in future, says The Telegraph.
My immediate knee jerk reaction to a friendly client this morning was as follows;-
***so France create the EU, can't get their way & now want to create another Union, they really are rather spineless***
----------------------------
Another friend has Skyped me as follows;-
"Resume of what's happening in one of the nations favourite British TV programmes read in the TV Times just now:" Masood is disgusted to find Yusef in Zainab's house." Do I really live in England or have I somehow mysteriously been transported half way across the world?"
----------------------------
It has struck me that both these communications/opinions are indeed related in some way. Last night on Newsnight Ms Kirsty Wark talked of technocrats taking over Europe. As you all know I've decided to speak up and call this the "rise of fascism" because what we're all experiencing is in fact a legalised driven mode of fascism throughout Europe and various hybrid politically motivated organisations are spreading like wild fire by use of cell phones,social network sites, etc and of course there's plenty of constricting new legislation and absurd regulation to go with it. The ordinary citizens are fed up with rhetoric and decisions that they see no material benefit from. Of course if you're a civil servant or operate within our controlled media you'll more likely applaud it (note Peter Oborne is a rare lone voice out there amongst the swathe of you tell them what I say journalists and newscasters). You even have to get permission to revolt these days. Well I'm revolting (no laughing matter)!
If indeed the little hungarian who runs France gets his way then maybe (maybe NOT) the UK will get left behind. Personally I take the view that our loss(es) from the EU whether we're one leg in one leg out shake it all about or firmly OUT makes very little difference to the slowdown that we're about to witness. Losses today may translate to new opportunities tomorrow. One thing is certain though is this....if France does suggest or even just get a miniscule the way down this new road then our beloved leader, yet another bloody Scotsman (note my grand-mother was scottish, a MacArthur in fact) must and I emphasis must allow the British people (whoever, whatever, whereever we are) a chance to VOTE either Yes or No to the existing EU that already most of us don't want and especially to a NEW EU that our friends 'Les Grenouilles' now suggest. Living in France has turned me into an anti-EU fanatic although I must confess I have much admiration for my neighbours as they suggest they do too to 'Les Roast Boeuf''.
So let's get back to my friends comments regarding the asian soap on UK television shall we? Actually I have no problem with allowing asians a national voice on British television but the point I think my friend was making is that there is too much voice and assistance given to the British ex-commonwealth community living on our shores. In fact just as an observation the number of english PS Oxbridge types has diminished dramatically to be often replaced by either British with commonwealth roots or those more akin to the Big Brother house. You can call me an alarmist, even a racist, but I cannot believe that I'm the only one who has spotted that the 'opportunity' that DaveCamClegg, Brown & Blair so proudly boast of seems to have turned on its head. Take the best TV news, 'Channel4News' fronted by Jon Snow (he of the absurd tie!) who is without doubt the No.1 newscaster (of the old school) remaining I think, well he is surrounded by a team of asian newscasters (their names escape me) who are really excellent BUT surely there are a few Oxbridge WASP types that could do these jobs equally well (?), n'est pas? I'm expecting an avalanche of complaints on this but hehhhhh it's just an observation and for record I have many west indian, asian and arab friends and clients BUT I don't expect them to be broadcasting their version of world events en masse whilst I'm supping a cuppa.
I'd like to hear what the 'lost generation' think! This phrase may be new to some of you but this is my generation who were brought up on Cliff Michelmore, The Sky At Night, the Beatles, Twiggy, the race to the moon, flower-power, bell bottom jeans and of course the 'mini-skirt'. Being so frustrated in the '70s with Unions causing strikes, the lack of anyone to fight (many of us agreed with McCartney's ditty "Give Ireland Back to the Irish" so didn't enlist), seeing our parents getting wiped out by really high taxation (98% I recollect) what did we do? Well, I'll tell you what we did. We got sucked in to Ted Heath's European Common Market Referendum and almost immediately regretted it so we dressed up as punks or New Wave anti-establishment warchilds. The funny thing is I'm still one of those anti-establishment figures who absolutely hates being told what to do and what I cannot do. I wonder why! Could it be because our forebears fought 2 world wars and constantly opposed hypocrisy from across the channel (except from the Dutch of course ehhh Dirk; for transparency my other grand-mother was a Dutch aristo) to allow the people on the shores of UK to live in harmony between each other. The price of freedom was indeed high as some of the recently released stories coming out from WW2 explain.
So what kind of vision do we as a nation really have? It's pretty confused because our own identity is pretty confused. I have a British Passport, my family are Cornish, I was brought up in the South-East and I live in the EU. My partner was born an Armenian, was brought up in Yerevan, went to Moscow University (where she achieved the rank of Lieutenant in the Russian Army as a translator for when we invaded), has a Russian Passport and is British and lives in EU (I think!). Yup, she has a British Passport too (heck, she'll shoot me for this but I can take it, I'm British, hang on so is she). CONFUSED? And this is the point, none of us really know who we are at the moment. The french believe in Egalite, Fraternite & Liberte and yet are shackled by their bureaucracy. My local farmers ALL hate the EU, Parisians, any foreigner, all claim to be ex-resistance fighters BUT all to a man love the european handouts as they can drive around in brand spanking new 4WD tractors (this is no exaggeration) and wait for it don't really see themselves as being great french patriots because their real roots are different. Many still speak the local patois rather like our cousins over the border in Somerset then.
I prefer to think of myself as a Cornishman and fly the 'Cornish Ensign' whenever I can. It's an unofficial black/white cross cornish flag with a Union Flag in the top left corner. Occasionally I fly the Malawi flag (although they've just changed it again), the french tricolor (to stop the regulars practicising their guillotines), the dutch orange flag which looks more like a tablecloth, the Russian War flag, the Russian flag (to keep the peace), and I have a whole load of others too that I fly on special occasions because I like to remind myself that I'm not really european or British. How can I be British? The inside cover informs me that I as the bearer can "pass freely without let or hindrance and to afford the bearer such assistance and protection as may be necessary". Sorry, but I'm not getting the hang of this DaveCam. Have you tried getting in or out of the UK recently? It's time for a Cornish passport and a fishing vessel I think.
On to more serious subjects though. So as we all know we British, that's Fred, Eric, Tatiana, Sophie, Mohammad and Shane etc etc do really need to decide what we want and pretty damn soon I think. So over to you DaveCam. Please can we have 2 referendums? The first should be a straight GREEN or RED card for the European Union and the second should be phrased differently along the lines of "DO YOU AGREE WITH THE CONCEPT OF BRITISH?" YES or NO.
For record the (former British) Commonwealth is more powerful than the European Union. There are more countries involved, a much bigger population, more diversity, more natural resources, they usually speak our language, sell us tea, play cricket and the only downside that I can see is that they don't let WASP english and cornish in. There's no need to dwell on the EU but there are several things in common that I can think of. These are in short; bureaucrats are mass-producing at an alarming rate and the Germans seem to be at the helm. Who said that? Off with his head.
I'm going for a cuppa!
STOP PRESS....The EU have decided that the (British) Commonwealth no longer exists. They've decided to call it THE EUROPEAN COMMONWEALTH & Albania have just signed up. I'm hoping that Holland will be allowed to join as the UK or whatever it's called these days does need dutch expertise on dykes, flood control, erosion, unpronounciation and their in-depth knowledge of class C drug abuse.
Don't tell him your name Pike!
The keetle is back on.
One lump or two comrade!
Suggestion for DaveCam.......Let's just refer to our ourselves as THE COMMONWEALTH shall we (in fact most people are unaware that is now The Commonwealth of Nations NOT the British Commonwealth)....we can then cut out the word British from everything. I notice that the leading seafarers charity that used to be called the BRITISH SAILORS SOCIETY and then the BRITISH & INTERNATIONAL SAILORS SOCIETY is now known just as THE SAILOR'S SOCIETY....true! Actually with Mozambique (a former Portuguese colony) and Rwanda achieving membership of the Commonwealth a name change to just a UK & COMMONWEALTH PASSPORT seems even more than appropriate.
NOTE...for record THE COMMONWEALTH OF NATIONS is a far bigger trading partner than the European Union. Perhaps we should remind our politicians of this by insisting on a Referendum on the EU whilst at the same time re-examining the status of citizenship in UK. I am sure that I'm not the only one who would prefer a United Kingdom & Commonwealth Passport.
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