Where were you on BLACK MONDAY?
I've been asked this a few times over the years and since CNBC is doing a bulletin on it today here is my recollection.
Actually the problems started in the weeks prior to 19th October 1987. Many people had borrowed money on rolled over trading positions since the hectic summer where £millions were made (& lost). Many market strategists including the high profile strategist at Dean Witter Reynolds (now Morgan Stanley), John Mendelsohn had warned of the effects of 'programme trading' many times on US tv, etc. No-one listened.
Friday 16th October, however, provided a different slant on capital markets activity.
My father and I were with a small London brokerage at the time, Dunkley Marshall. There were around 40 brokers and dealers and another 30 support staff. On Friday morning the Great Storm hit the south eastern parts of England. I had left my house at around 7am for the 1 hour journey. The station was deserted like many. I scampered back to my house zig-zagging fallen trees and rang the office. A friend of mine, Richard Coles, a young dynamic broker (now living happily in Oz) surprisingly answered the phone. There were around half a dozen personnel in the office including my father who had walked from the Barbican. Coles told me it was like working in hell. It was impossible to answer the telephones around the dealing room with virtually no-one about so he had taken responsibility by operating the dealing room from the confines of the reception desk where normally young girls had transferred calls into the open plan area. By delegating price and dealing tasks to the floor and eslewhere he was just about handling the 'incoming' as the marines would say.
Monday morning was a whole new saga though. I had arrived at my desk around 7.45am despite difficult trains following the weekend when I had had to chop a few trees. Clients were phoning in at an alarming rate and the Mainwaring phrase "don't panic" resounded around the office. I remember clearly one partner sitting opposite shouting at a client after receiving an earful of abuse and concern..."well, you think you've got ****ing problems, I've just bought a farm and had to contend with 500 fallen oak trees at the weekend, now stop wasting my time". Or words to that effect! Anyway it wasn't the first phone that got slammed that day.
The stock exchange electronic pricing system wasn't 'real time' and throughout the day the only real picture the majority of us got were regular updates from our dealers. With the gyrations on FTSE100 of huge %'s (I think the day swing was around 40% although top to bottom around -23%) it didn't take me long to work out that on a 20 minute screen delay the blue prices were probably red whilst within minutes the red were probably blue. A few trading clients took my advice at the time so I suggested a few buy trades at blue and did the same later in the morning. I can say with 100% conviction it was the only time that I've ever seen profits made at the high point as dealers were often shovelling trades at sometimes £'s lower. Of course, alot of discretion have to be allowed and not many tried this dangerous strategy. The best advice was to do nothing and mercifully many took that on board. I do remember though that an institutional client's boss panicked at around 11am (my contact was in Bermuda on holiday) and sold millions of Attwoods through me at the wrong price; by the time my contact returned on wednesday Attwoods had rallied like most stocks.
By the time Wall Street had opened most in London had prepared themselves for a rocky afternoon. The lessons of the morning had stood us in good stead though.
Somehow we got through the day.
The next day was "Terrible Tuesday". The firms credit control departments were on prozac and the Finance Partner and Settlements Manager tried to come to terms with the carnage. Stock delivery was a serious problem for every firm across the LSE ( and had been for weeks prior to the crash) but I don't recollect any proper firms getting into too much undue stress.
Most investors had stood their ground and as we all now know October '87 was really just a great correction rather than a descending crash like '29 or what we went through more recently with Lehman's.
Friday, 19 October 2012
Friday, 28 September 2012
We are near the APEX of the crisis, much nearer to it than millions think
The global financial, economic and social crisis is nearly at its apex point.
Apex (Latin for top, peak, summit)
How do I know this? Well, I work largely on a combination of fact and feel. This is called a HUNCH (an intuition or feeling). It's something that regulators can't stomach and is never found in an analysts report.
There have been a lot of discussions recently regarding the fickleness (**) of fiat currencies as the US deficit reached US$16 trillion. Over the last 40 years the US$ has lost around 80% of its purchasing power and with QE and other Bernanke induced liquidity injections I suspect further dilution of buying power will result. Just in the last few days good ol' Ben has promised to inject $40 billion per month; he'll do "whatever it takes" to kick start the US economy.
(**) --inconstancy, volatility, unpredictability, unfaithfulness, capriciousness, mutability, unsteadiness, flightiness, fitfulness the fickleness of businessmen and politicians
We've heard this phrase before. In the last few months the same phrase has been used by the ECB's Mario Draghi. He said -"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro," Draghi told the audience in Lancaster House, a grand building in central London, then paused for effect. "And believe me, it will be enough."
When I hear this phrase I have a bad feeling, always. History has taught us this.
Example - In September 1942 the following event occurred;- Adolf Hitler ordered (General) Paulus to take Stalingrad whatever the cost to German forces. On the radio Hitler told the German people: "You may rest assured that nobody will ever drive us out of Stalingrad."
Well, I think the Russian people and its armies had different ideas at the time and we all know how Stalingrad ended. (I'd recommend anyone to visit Volgograd today, it's a dynamic City with an extraordinary monument to those who defended it).
Fast forward to the European Union and the great experiment that hardly anyone I speak to really wants. The EU has gone well beyond its original remit and has clearly mismanaged the economies, the currency itself as well as just about every facet that it encompasses. New model regulation is a disaster and as far as the UK is concerned the FSA (soon to hydrate into FCA and others) has allowed absurd and unworkable doctrine to pass unhindered through the back door. Economies are contracting as predicted by me at an alarming pace and GDP targetting is continuing through lower interests rates and ultimately inflationary tap turning. Markets everywhere are now disfunctioning and the confusion amongst institutions and new age Wealth (always depreciating it seems) managers is alarming too as new suitability rules seem to follow government guidelines. Just about everyone working for the european vision is earning premium salaries with similar attractive pensions and perks. The people are angry everywhere but so far are giving governments the benefit of doubts. However, Greece is in a no win no win situation and has to DEFAULT to move forward. The authorities there have managed to keep a lid on the tensions so far but it is only a matter of time. Similarly Spain is in the doldrums too and recent street protests have been pretty ugly. I expect things to get a lot worse and the crisis of trust to spread to other Club Med countries. In Italy the consensus view is that the technocrat PM Mario Monti is already assured of a new term. Who said that Italy is a democracy? Portugal has been pretty quiet but if Spain kicks off as I predict then social and markets panic could catalyse. It's now becoming clear that Germany may well get left with a northern EuroZone and a rebranded Euro. I'm not sure where France is headed but the people are speaking of a return to a New Franc. So there we have it. Banks in the EuroZone are on the verge of epidemic runs (see previous post on Spanish banks) and it's only a matter of time before the cracks widen. IT WILL GET VERY UGLY INDEED. My view is that global markets could panic by as much as 30-50% and in bond markets yields across EU could exceed 20-30%. I'm sorry but I do think there is a monumental catastrophe around the corner.
So what do do?
It's pretty clear that the fiat currencies are going to crumble hereon. I was advocating a minimum weighting in gold and gold equities of 25% till June when I left over-regulated capital markets .
My new (unregulated and personal) adjusted weightings (my ideal personal portfolio) are as follows;-
GOLD (physical krugerrands and small bars) 25% (as high as 50%)
GOLD EQUITIES (mostly North American and African) 25%
New Capital Wealthy Nations Fund ( a fund focused on true CREDIT nations bonds) 25%
A GLOBAL AGRI FUND (still looking for a suitable vehicle) 10%
THE REST 15% (as high as 35%) -- (spread it around in liquid assets, maybe certain blue chip equities, emerging & frontiers markets funds, art, etc but it really is a lottery right now)
---%'s to be adjusted to suit
DO NOT HOLD ANY FIXED INTEREST INSTRUMENTS, EUROS & DERIVATIVES (incl ETF's) & MOST IMPORTANTLY REVIEW ANY CASH DEPOSITS WITH BUILDING SOCIETIES & BANKS. HOLD TIGHT FOR A UK PROPERTY CORRECTION OF UP TO 70% IN PLACES.
The financial system is now geared to take your money. Get wise to the events that may unfold at any moment.
NONE OF THE ABOVE COMMENTS ARE DEEMED TO BE 'ADVICE'. THESE ARE SOLELY EXPRESSIONS, OPINIONS AND COMMENTS BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN UNFOLD THE LAST 36 YEARS AND ESPECIALLY SINCE GREENSPAN WENT WILD IN 1995* WITH AN INTEREST RATE INDUCED ECONOMY DESIGNED TO INFLATE ASSET PRICES AND EXPAND CREDIT.
* --On February 23, 1995 then-Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, in his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins Act testimony to Congress, announced that he was ending his period of money tightening that had taken the federal funds rate up to 6% and would start letting rates decline.
Apex (Latin for top, peak, summit)
How do I know this? Well, I work largely on a combination of fact and feel. This is called a HUNCH (an intuition or feeling). It's something that regulators can't stomach and is never found in an analysts report.
There have been a lot of discussions recently regarding the fickleness (**) of fiat currencies as the US deficit reached US$16 trillion. Over the last 40 years the US$ has lost around 80% of its purchasing power and with QE and other Bernanke induced liquidity injections I suspect further dilution of buying power will result. Just in the last few days good ol' Ben has promised to inject $40 billion per month; he'll do "whatever it takes" to kick start the US economy.
(**) --inconstancy, volatility, unpredictability, unfaithfulness, capriciousness, mutability, unsteadiness, flightiness, fitfulness the fickleness of businessmen and politicians
We've heard this phrase before. In the last few months the same phrase has been used by the ECB's Mario Draghi. He said -"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro," Draghi told the audience in Lancaster House, a grand building in central London, then paused for effect. "And believe me, it will be enough."
When I hear this phrase I have a bad feeling, always. History has taught us this.
Example - In September 1942 the following event occurred;- Adolf Hitler ordered (General) Paulus to take Stalingrad whatever the cost to German forces. On the radio Hitler told the German people: "You may rest assured that nobody will ever drive us out of Stalingrad."
Well, I think the Russian people and its armies had different ideas at the time and we all know how Stalingrad ended. (I'd recommend anyone to visit Volgograd today, it's a dynamic City with an extraordinary monument to those who defended it).
Fast forward to the European Union and the great experiment that hardly anyone I speak to really wants. The EU has gone well beyond its original remit and has clearly mismanaged the economies, the currency itself as well as just about every facet that it encompasses. New model regulation is a disaster and as far as the UK is concerned the FSA (soon to hydrate into FCA and others) has allowed absurd and unworkable doctrine to pass unhindered through the back door. Economies are contracting as predicted by me at an alarming pace and GDP targetting is continuing through lower interests rates and ultimately inflationary tap turning. Markets everywhere are now disfunctioning and the confusion amongst institutions and new age Wealth (always depreciating it seems) managers is alarming too as new suitability rules seem to follow government guidelines. Just about everyone working for the european vision is earning premium salaries with similar attractive pensions and perks. The people are angry everywhere but so far are giving governments the benefit of doubts. However, Greece is in a no win no win situation and has to DEFAULT to move forward. The authorities there have managed to keep a lid on the tensions so far but it is only a matter of time. Similarly Spain is in the doldrums too and recent street protests have been pretty ugly. I expect things to get a lot worse and the crisis of trust to spread to other Club Med countries. In Italy the consensus view is that the technocrat PM Mario Monti is already assured of a new term. Who said that Italy is a democracy? Portugal has been pretty quiet but if Spain kicks off as I predict then social and markets panic could catalyse. It's now becoming clear that Germany may well get left with a northern EuroZone and a rebranded Euro. I'm not sure where France is headed but the people are speaking of a return to a New Franc. So there we have it. Banks in the EuroZone are on the verge of epidemic runs (see previous post on Spanish banks) and it's only a matter of time before the cracks widen. IT WILL GET VERY UGLY INDEED. My view is that global markets could panic by as much as 30-50% and in bond markets yields across EU could exceed 20-30%. I'm sorry but I do think there is a monumental catastrophe around the corner.
So what do do?
It's pretty clear that the fiat currencies are going to crumble hereon. I was advocating a minimum weighting in gold and gold equities of 25% till June when I left over-regulated capital markets .
My new (unregulated and personal) adjusted weightings (my ideal personal portfolio) are as follows;-
GOLD (physical krugerrands and small bars) 25% (as high as 50%)
GOLD EQUITIES (mostly North American and African) 25%
New Capital Wealthy Nations Fund ( a fund focused on true CREDIT nations bonds) 25%
A GLOBAL AGRI FUND (still looking for a suitable vehicle) 10%
THE REST 15% (as high as 35%) -- (spread it around in liquid assets, maybe certain blue chip equities, emerging & frontiers markets funds, art, etc but it really is a lottery right now)
---%'s to be adjusted to suit
DO NOT HOLD ANY FIXED INTEREST INSTRUMENTS, EUROS & DERIVATIVES (incl ETF's) & MOST IMPORTANTLY REVIEW ANY CASH DEPOSITS WITH BUILDING SOCIETIES & BANKS. HOLD TIGHT FOR A UK PROPERTY CORRECTION OF UP TO 70% IN PLACES.
The financial system is now geared to take your money. Get wise to the events that may unfold at any moment.
NONE OF THE ABOVE COMMENTS ARE DEEMED TO BE 'ADVICE'. THESE ARE SOLELY EXPRESSIONS, OPINIONS AND COMMENTS BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN UNFOLD THE LAST 36 YEARS AND ESPECIALLY SINCE GREENSPAN WENT WILD IN 1995* WITH AN INTEREST RATE INDUCED ECONOMY DESIGNED TO INFLATE ASSET PRICES AND EXPAND CREDIT.
* --On February 23, 1995 then-Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, in his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins Act testimony to Congress, announced that he was ending his period of money tightening that had taken the federal funds rate up to 6% and would start letting rates decline.
Wednesday, 29 August 2012
Crash Alert! Where's all the cash gone?
Spain is undergoing a massive run on its banks and hardly anyone has noticed. This is what has been reported by the welliegraph;-
Spain has suffered the worst haemorrhaging of bank deposits since the launch of the euro, losing funds equal to 7% of GDP in a single month. Data from the European Central Bank shows that outflows from Spanish commercial banks reached Euros74bn (£59bn) in July, twice the previous monthly record. This brings the total deposit loss over the past year to 10.9%, replicating the pattern seen in Greece as the crisis spread. The Bank of Spain said the fall is distorted by the July effect of tax payments and by the expiry of securitised funds. On the other hand, Julian Callow from Barclays Capital said the deposit loss is 65bn even when adjusted for the season....Deposit outflows are clearly picking up and the balance sheet of the Spanish banking system is contracting.
***SO WHERE'S ALL THE CASH GOING?***
So then, hard cash is rapidly disappearing from the spanish banking system but consumers and businesses aren't spending. So what is happening to all the hard cash? I don't believe that anyone is seriously putting it 'sous leur lits' as the french would say. If history is anything to go by there could well be a run on prams in Spain as millions replace firewood with euro banknotes once the inevitable hyper-inflation finally happens ( a few years down the road). In the short-term there's little evidence that spaniards might be a. buying government bonds b. buying spanish equities c. buying any other sovereign debt d. investing abroad e. buying Gold f. buying agriculture, agri-foods, normal food g. buying art h. buying property (from the Brits?) ......shall I go on? Perhaps there's a massive pay down of debt occurring. The destination of all these euros is rather curious though. Maybe there's a similar thing happening as to when Greece (2 years ago) ran into difficulties; the herd back then sent 100's of millions of euros abroad (Suisse banks) and many bought into London property at drastically high levels. And then of course there are the spanish footballers; I understand their contracts are now being traded as debt too. Maybe there are a few spanish towns buying footballers debt but I doubt their degree of sophistication.
I anyone has any insights on this I'd love to know what is really happening in Spain. One thing is certain though is that things are beginning to look as though it may get very ugly in Club Med (Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal) before long.
Stand by for a substantial equity and bond re-rating. Ostensibly a 1987 style crash that may make the 23% daily correction back then look like a walk on a Costa Brava beach.
Sell EUROS Buy GOLD (the new global currency).
Spain has suffered the worst haemorrhaging of bank deposits since the launch of the euro, losing funds equal to 7% of GDP in a single month. Data from the European Central Bank shows that outflows from Spanish commercial banks reached Euros74bn (£59bn) in July, twice the previous monthly record. This brings the total deposit loss over the past year to 10.9%, replicating the pattern seen in Greece as the crisis spread. The Bank of Spain said the fall is distorted by the July effect of tax payments and by the expiry of securitised funds. On the other hand, Julian Callow from Barclays Capital said the deposit loss is 65bn even when adjusted for the season....Deposit outflows are clearly picking up and the balance sheet of the Spanish banking system is contracting.
***SO WHERE'S ALL THE CASH GOING?***
So then, hard cash is rapidly disappearing from the spanish banking system but consumers and businesses aren't spending. So what is happening to all the hard cash? I don't believe that anyone is seriously putting it 'sous leur lits' as the french would say. If history is anything to go by there could well be a run on prams in Spain as millions replace firewood with euro banknotes once the inevitable hyper-inflation finally happens ( a few years down the road). In the short-term there's little evidence that spaniards might be a. buying government bonds b. buying spanish equities c. buying any other sovereign debt d. investing abroad e. buying Gold f. buying agriculture, agri-foods, normal food g. buying art h. buying property (from the Brits?) ......shall I go on? Perhaps there's a massive pay down of debt occurring. The destination of all these euros is rather curious though. Maybe there's a similar thing happening as to when Greece (2 years ago) ran into difficulties; the herd back then sent 100's of millions of euros abroad (Suisse banks) and many bought into London property at drastically high levels. And then of course there are the spanish footballers; I understand their contracts are now being traded as debt too. Maybe there are a few spanish towns buying footballers debt but I doubt their degree of sophistication.
I anyone has any insights on this I'd love to know what is really happening in Spain. One thing is certain though is that things are beginning to look as though it may get very ugly in Club Med (Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal) before long.
Stand by for a substantial equity and bond re-rating. Ostensibly a 1987 style crash that may make the 23% daily correction back then look like a walk on a Costa Brava beach.
Sell EUROS Buy GOLD (the new global currency).
Friday, 24 August 2012
I think I know how Lance Armstrong feels
I'm sure many of us have been somewhat amazed by revelations that Lance Armstrong was and is (allegedly) a drug cheat. But is it as simple as the media suggest?
It does seem incredible that any sportsman can achieve such extraordinary status and yet years after his last great success be on the receiving end of a witch hunt addressing concerns that he systemically cheated the sport that he had dedicated his life to. But is the situation that Lance Armstrong has found himself in an isolated incident or is it symptomatic of a society that now tests, overtests, examines, regulates, spins just about everything in the name of upholding integrity? The financial services industry that I was part of from March 1976 to June 2012 has and still is undergoing a witch hunt and it's incredible to think that '000s like myself are being forced out. Of course the reasons are very different on the surface. There is no accusation of drug abuse within the anti-RDR lobby. Lance Armstrong is NOT being told to go back to school to learn to ride a bike. Yet the results are exactly the same. Just like Lance (we're not on first name terms yet) my reaction is the same.
"I can't really be bothered dealing with the regulators and do gooders who have achieved very little and yet lord over us like vultures!"
Lord Turner is a hypocrite just like the people who are turning en masse on Armstrong. Nothing good can be achieved by all of this excessive intrusion and yet it's happening to '000s of people globally. One doesn't have to feel sympathy for L A. I doubt he wants anyone's sympathy anyway. Like him I worked and cycled my way through Capital Markets for many years. He did the mileage whereas I did the trades. He took the drug tests (presumably the Tour regulators took blood samples too) whereas I remained compliant. In both cases nothing was found to lead anyone to assume or presume any form of abuse was taking place. L A had already suffered at the hands of testicular cancer and presumably taken shed loads of drugs to combat this and yet he still managed to respond to sports regulators probing him. He was clean then and yet we're now being told he wasn't. The similarities here with the way that '000s of IFA's and Stockbrokers are being treated are somewhat obtuse but there is something rather sinister in all of this. Why are millions of people globally being so gullible regarding the benefits of any form of regulation? I'm convinced REGULATION & REGULATORS everywhere are the real enemy. I wish that the media would redress the imbalance on this kind of reporting but like many I'm suspicious as to who is controlling them.
Walking away from this intrusion and orwellian discrimination and holding one's head up high just shows that there are men out there who have woken up to this hypocrisy.
I'm just off to the shed to fix my bike!
It does seem incredible that any sportsman can achieve such extraordinary status and yet years after his last great success be on the receiving end of a witch hunt addressing concerns that he systemically cheated the sport that he had dedicated his life to. But is the situation that Lance Armstrong has found himself in an isolated incident or is it symptomatic of a society that now tests, overtests, examines, regulates, spins just about everything in the name of upholding integrity? The financial services industry that I was part of from March 1976 to June 2012 has and still is undergoing a witch hunt and it's incredible to think that '000s like myself are being forced out. Of course the reasons are very different on the surface. There is no accusation of drug abuse within the anti-RDR lobby. Lance Armstrong is NOT being told to go back to school to learn to ride a bike. Yet the results are exactly the same. Just like Lance (we're not on first name terms yet) my reaction is the same.
"I can't really be bothered dealing with the regulators and do gooders who have achieved very little and yet lord over us like vultures!"
Lord Turner is a hypocrite just like the people who are turning en masse on Armstrong. Nothing good can be achieved by all of this excessive intrusion and yet it's happening to '000s of people globally. One doesn't have to feel sympathy for L A. I doubt he wants anyone's sympathy anyway. Like him I worked and cycled my way through Capital Markets for many years. He did the mileage whereas I did the trades. He took the drug tests (presumably the Tour regulators took blood samples too) whereas I remained compliant. In both cases nothing was found to lead anyone to assume or presume any form of abuse was taking place. L A had already suffered at the hands of testicular cancer and presumably taken shed loads of drugs to combat this and yet he still managed to respond to sports regulators probing him. He was clean then and yet we're now being told he wasn't. The similarities here with the way that '000s of IFA's and Stockbrokers are being treated are somewhat obtuse but there is something rather sinister in all of this. Why are millions of people globally being so gullible regarding the benefits of any form of regulation? I'm convinced REGULATION & REGULATORS everywhere are the real enemy. I wish that the media would redress the imbalance on this kind of reporting but like many I'm suspicious as to who is controlling them.
Walking away from this intrusion and orwellian discrimination and holding one's head up high just shows that there are men out there who have woken up to this hypocrisy.
I'm just off to the shed to fix my bike!
Tuesday, 21 August 2012
Shakedown Shakedown!
I've been pretty quiet over the summer as temperature in Europe dance in the high 30s but the current topic "Shakedown Shakedown" has got me thinking during some of the hot nights. My friend over in Virgina USA has reminded me that in US of A the government (the Fed et al) are pretty well acting like Al Capone in more ways than one. He calls it a classic 'Shakedown'. I've met many good brokers,fund managers, hedge fund managers over the years but there are only a few that I would classify (re-classify) as 'guru' material but my friend in Virginia is one of them. He had worked till relatively recently on Wall Street both in NY and London and his knowledge, experience and valuable insights are something I take very seriously. We don't always agree on everything but one thing that we do agree on is that there are 'Shakedowns' occurring and not just in USA.
Several years ago a UK listed company 'H' that I invested in on behalf of clients saw the writing on the wall in Sub-Saharan Africa and did a clever deal with a FTSE100 constituent 'T' allowing for a special dividend to get paid. After completing the deal the African nation retrospectively charged the PLC with tax evasion (some $400m +) which clearly the company wasn't prepared to pay (& rightly so). Having taken legal advice the London based int'l courts covered the case and after a while the UK PLC 'H' put the sum into an escrow. The money is still there as far as I know and now the African nation is making life more difficult for 'T' too. SHAKEDOWN 1.
The BP oil spill in Gulf of Mexico has been well documented but hardly any journalists have questioned as to why the int'l board of BP allotted billions of shareholders funds to a US lawyer representing the US government. To date most of the allotted funds have yet to be distributed as perceived environmental and business losses were overcooked by a severe margin. It'll be interesting to see if the US lawyer returns the funds to BP shareholders but I'm not holding my breath. SHAKEDOWN 2. (Ed's note. Normal procedure would entail insurance claims taking the slack for any accident followed by an investigation and perhaps a fine. The interference by Obama provoked BP into paying out for questionable failures despite adequate US insurance cover)
In the last month my former employer, Standard Chartered PLC, paid a $345m fine to a NY Federal regulator because the bank allegedly dealt with and for Iranians in the US despite strict embargoes. What is strange about Sands predicament is that Chartered Bank have operated in Iran for nigh on a century, created the Irano-British Bank in 1959 (49%) and have been the primary western banking link between Iran and the region, Iran and the rest of the world and Iran and the US during, before and since the Shah was deposed. Thousands of Iranians live in the US today as opponents to the Ayotullahs and yet no-one seems a bit curious to reflect on how these Iranians can a. obtain investment finance from their relatives and b. simultaneously return income and investment returns to their families in Iran presumably abling and assisting pro-US iranian interests. Granted, there may have been a few rotten deals but surely this was factored in when the banking licence was obtained and renewed in NY. SHAKEDOWN 3. (What happens to the fine $? I doubt US tax-payers will see a dime).
The strange curiosity surrounding the last SHAKEDOWN mentioned is that the chief UK regulator, Lord Turner of FSA, was a Non-Exec Director of Standard Chartered (£180,000 salary) till c. 2008. Ironically he was responsible for remunerationa and ethics. Have you taken your Integrity Matters online test (£20) yet Lord Turner? Anyway his fee for a few hours work a month appears to be an Appendix to SHAKEDOWN 3. Lastly, has anyone worked out the obvious conflict of interest here?
It seems that indebted governments everywhere, failed regulators everywhere, are conducting undemocratic and uncapitalistic SHAKEDOWNS on cash rich businesses so expect more of the same.
Let's not forget that 'Shakedowns' are not confined to big business. Has anyone noticed how the same is happening to customers of utilities businesses? More on that later.
"The 21st Century Shakedown is here to stay!!
Several years ago a UK listed company 'H' that I invested in on behalf of clients saw the writing on the wall in Sub-Saharan Africa and did a clever deal with a FTSE100 constituent 'T' allowing for a special dividend to get paid. After completing the deal the African nation retrospectively charged the PLC with tax evasion (some $400m +) which clearly the company wasn't prepared to pay (& rightly so). Having taken legal advice the London based int'l courts covered the case and after a while the UK PLC 'H' put the sum into an escrow. The money is still there as far as I know and now the African nation is making life more difficult for 'T' too. SHAKEDOWN 1.
The BP oil spill in Gulf of Mexico has been well documented but hardly any journalists have questioned as to why the int'l board of BP allotted billions of shareholders funds to a US lawyer representing the US government. To date most of the allotted funds have yet to be distributed as perceived environmental and business losses were overcooked by a severe margin. It'll be interesting to see if the US lawyer returns the funds to BP shareholders but I'm not holding my breath. SHAKEDOWN 2. (Ed's note. Normal procedure would entail insurance claims taking the slack for any accident followed by an investigation and perhaps a fine. The interference by Obama provoked BP into paying out for questionable failures despite adequate US insurance cover)
In the last month my former employer, Standard Chartered PLC, paid a $345m fine to a NY Federal regulator because the bank allegedly dealt with and for Iranians in the US despite strict embargoes. What is strange about Sands predicament is that Chartered Bank have operated in Iran for nigh on a century, created the Irano-British Bank in 1959 (49%) and have been the primary western banking link between Iran and the region, Iran and the rest of the world and Iran and the US during, before and since the Shah was deposed. Thousands of Iranians live in the US today as opponents to the Ayotullahs and yet no-one seems a bit curious to reflect on how these Iranians can a. obtain investment finance from their relatives and b. simultaneously return income and investment returns to their families in Iran presumably abling and assisting pro-US iranian interests. Granted, there may have been a few rotten deals but surely this was factored in when the banking licence was obtained and renewed in NY. SHAKEDOWN 3. (What happens to the fine $? I doubt US tax-payers will see a dime).
The strange curiosity surrounding the last SHAKEDOWN mentioned is that the chief UK regulator, Lord Turner of FSA, was a Non-Exec Director of Standard Chartered (£180,000 salary) till c. 2008. Ironically he was responsible for remunerationa and ethics. Have you taken your Integrity Matters online test (£20) yet Lord Turner? Anyway his fee for a few hours work a month appears to be an Appendix to SHAKEDOWN 3. Lastly, has anyone worked out the obvious conflict of interest here?
It seems that indebted governments everywhere, failed regulators everywhere, are conducting undemocratic and uncapitalistic SHAKEDOWNS on cash rich businesses so expect more of the same.
Let's not forget that 'Shakedowns' are not confined to big business. Has anyone noticed how the same is happening to customers of utilities businesses? More on that later.
"The 21st Century Shakedown is here to stay!!
Friday, 29 June 2012
140 Years up in smoke thanks to FSA, my own trade body and the half wits who now run the securities industry
Many of you are probably extremely puzzled about my 'Letter' explaining my 'Exit' from the London Stock Exchange which was sent out this week by the firm that I have been attached to as an Associate these last 7 years.
Today is the last day, barring some miracle, that I am working on the London Stock Exchange and frankly I can't wait until 16:30 hours later today.
I know that I have made the correct decision.
Just in the last hour 3 emails have arrived (alongside the other 70 or so I receive daily) all commenting on important matters of REGULATION. As many who might have read my blog these last few years know full well I believe passionately that my favourite topic, REGULATION is NOT just part of the problem but is in fact THE problem. How do I know this? Well, I had the good fortune to accompany my father one day on to the old floor of the old Stock Exchange in the early 1960's when Hoblyn & King was circling various firms. In those days the brokers spent 100% of their time (when they weren't entertaining in their clubs and local watering holes) dealing on the market, studying stocks & shares (the old terms are always the best) and speaking to their clients who were their life blood. This old way of doing business always put the client first and all aspects of the firms, from the office manager to the the most junior settlements staff as well as the famed tea ladies, all understood that it was their roles to support the brokers in this great adventure. The adventure was indeed a daily buzz as all around everything to do was investment and client driven. I still believe passionately that this should be the case.
The first email was from a colleague wishing me luck for the future and finished by saying that
"I can understand your point of view but you are more than capable of doing these stupid exams, RDR or whatever so why give up if you love the business".
I've lost count of the number of times people have said this to me in the last 18 months. The next 2 emails received today may explain why the "capability" argument is a nonsense. The 1st email is from the iFS School of Finance which used to be the Institute of Bankers in the old days. Just like the LSE it too got hijacked somewhere along the way. This is the thread of the iFS email;-
Dear Mr Hoblyn
Essentials of supervision: helping to prepare your firm for the RDR
Don't forget to book your place at our forthcoming Institute event with Charles Cattell, founding Partner of the Cattellyst Consultancy, which is being held on Tuesday 10 July! Charles is a consultant and training practitioner with extensive expertise across the financial services sector.
This taster workshop will provide an opportunity for those with supervisory responsibilities for advisers under the RDR to explore the nature of those responsibilities, to identify some of the key activities which the role demands of them and to consider how to address some of the challenges they are likely to face.
By the end of the workshop, participants will be:
• aware of the expectations that the firm and the regulator place on them as supervisors
• able to recognise some potentially challenging supervisory situations and be equipped with some pointers and tips for handling them
• able to identify some specific responsibilities for supervisors created by the implementation of the RDR
Has everyone read this as you'll be tested on this subject later? Actually once digested it says absolutely nothing. In fact it is claptrap and reminds me of that course that health & safety officers preach to show decorators and firemen how to climb ladders.
The 3rd email though is my favourite., It comes from Goodacre, a firm that has studied RDR to the nth degree and makes rather a splendid living from the 600 odd pages that the RDR document encompasses. It reads;-
Gap-fill training really needs to be completed in the next couple of months to allow sufficient time to process the necessary registrations. Goodacre has designed specific training courses to fulfill the gaps between CISI qualifications and the new RDR (Retail Distribution Review) standards.
LSE Gap-fill is running over four full-day sessions in London from 09:00-17:00 each day on the following dates:
10th, 17th, 21st & 31st August
A full day session of Securities runs from 09:00-16:00 in London on 6th July
We are also running PCIAM Gap-fill training and Derivatives training on an in-house basis.
CPD Certificates will be issued on completion of the training
In the column attached to the email it proudly states;-
4-day LSE Gap-Fill Training
£992+VAT
Covering the 28 core hours or Financial Services, Regulation & Ethics, Investment Principles & Risk and Personal Taxation.
1-Day Securities Course
£225+VAT
Covering the main topics of The Securities Market, Dealing Principles, Clearing & Settlement
Influences, and Behaviours & Risks.
So there you have it. The RDR is a milking machine for all concerned and the best part of the RDR is that it isn't going to go away. Investors (let's call them clients or customers but I suspect many will think that they're suckers as many brokers and wealth managers will be away from their desks doing all this compliance gap filling alongside a host of other compliance driven courses) are going to end up paying for all this against a backdrop of an ever decreasing standard of service.
Just how am I as a stockbroker in UK supposed to talk to market counterparties, attend market driven meetings (I get invites daily), liaise with 150 clients, deal with settlements issues and at the same time analyse, recommend, buy and sell securities when I'm being dragged away to attend claptrap meetings? I'm afraid 'life is just too short' for all of this.
Next stop.......well has anyone guessed what I'll be doing and where I'll be doing it from in future?
Hasta la vista FSA! And the same to you FCA, having rebranded yourselves. The age of the ninkumpoop is upon us.
ps My exit letter will be published in due course along with more comments of my real life experiences in the age of the fascist compliance regime.
Today is the last day, barring some miracle, that I am working on the London Stock Exchange and frankly I can't wait until 16:30 hours later today.
I know that I have made the correct decision.
Just in the last hour 3 emails have arrived (alongside the other 70 or so I receive daily) all commenting on important matters of REGULATION. As many who might have read my blog these last few years know full well I believe passionately that my favourite topic, REGULATION is NOT just part of the problem but is in fact THE problem. How do I know this? Well, I had the good fortune to accompany my father one day on to the old floor of the old Stock Exchange in the early 1960's when Hoblyn & King was circling various firms. In those days the brokers spent 100% of their time (when they weren't entertaining in their clubs and local watering holes) dealing on the market, studying stocks & shares (the old terms are always the best) and speaking to their clients who were their life blood. This old way of doing business always put the client first and all aspects of the firms, from the office manager to the the most junior settlements staff as well as the famed tea ladies, all understood that it was their roles to support the brokers in this great adventure. The adventure was indeed a daily buzz as all around everything to do was investment and client driven. I still believe passionately that this should be the case.
The first email was from a colleague wishing me luck for the future and finished by saying that
"I can understand your point of view but you are more than capable of doing these stupid exams, RDR or whatever so why give up if you love the business".
I've lost count of the number of times people have said this to me in the last 18 months. The next 2 emails received today may explain why the "capability" argument is a nonsense. The 1st email is from the iFS School of Finance which used to be the Institute of Bankers in the old days. Just like the LSE it too got hijacked somewhere along the way. This is the thread of the iFS email;-
Dear Mr Hoblyn
Essentials of supervision: helping to prepare your firm for the RDR
Don't forget to book your place at our forthcoming Institute event with Charles Cattell, founding Partner of the Cattellyst Consultancy, which is being held on Tuesday 10 July! Charles is a consultant and training practitioner with extensive expertise across the financial services sector.
This taster workshop will provide an opportunity for those with supervisory responsibilities for advisers under the RDR to explore the nature of those responsibilities, to identify some of the key activities which the role demands of them and to consider how to address some of the challenges they are likely to face.
By the end of the workshop, participants will be:
• aware of the expectations that the firm and the regulator place on them as supervisors
• able to recognise some potentially challenging supervisory situations and be equipped with some pointers and tips for handling them
• able to identify some specific responsibilities for supervisors created by the implementation of the RDR
Has everyone read this as you'll be tested on this subject later? Actually once digested it says absolutely nothing. In fact it is claptrap and reminds me of that course that health & safety officers preach to show decorators and firemen how to climb ladders.
The 3rd email though is my favourite., It comes from Goodacre, a firm that has studied RDR to the nth degree and makes rather a splendid living from the 600 odd pages that the RDR document encompasses. It reads;-
Gap-fill training really needs to be completed in the next couple of months to allow sufficient time to process the necessary registrations. Goodacre has designed specific training courses to fulfill the gaps between CISI qualifications and the new RDR (Retail Distribution Review) standards.
LSE Gap-fill is running over four full-day sessions in London from 09:00-17:00 each day on the following dates:
10th, 17th, 21st & 31st August
A full day session of Securities runs from 09:00-16:00 in London on 6th July
We are also running PCIAM Gap-fill training and Derivatives training on an in-house basis.
CPD Certificates will be issued on completion of the training
In the column attached to the email it proudly states;-
4-day LSE Gap-Fill Training
£992+VAT
Covering the 28 core hours or Financial Services, Regulation & Ethics, Investment Principles & Risk and Personal Taxation.
1-Day Securities Course
£225+VAT
Covering the main topics of The Securities Market, Dealing Principles, Clearing & Settlement
Influences, and Behaviours & Risks.
So there you have it. The RDR is a milking machine for all concerned and the best part of the RDR is that it isn't going to go away. Investors (let's call them clients or customers but I suspect many will think that they're suckers as many brokers and wealth managers will be away from their desks doing all this compliance gap filling alongside a host of other compliance driven courses) are going to end up paying for all this against a backdrop of an ever decreasing standard of service.
Just how am I as a stockbroker in UK supposed to talk to market counterparties, attend market driven meetings (I get invites daily), liaise with 150 clients, deal with settlements issues and at the same time analyse, recommend, buy and sell securities when I'm being dragged away to attend claptrap meetings? I'm afraid 'life is just too short' for all of this.
Next stop.......well has anyone guessed what I'll be doing and where I'll be doing it from in future?
Hasta la vista FSA! And the same to you FCA, having rebranded yourselves. The age of the ninkumpoop is upon us.
ps My exit letter will be published in due course along with more comments of my real life experiences in the age of the fascist compliance regime.
Friday, 1 June 2012
PGS + PQE = Common Sense
As US 10-year Treasury yields flounder in 1.73% territory, UK 10-year around 1.69%, as ultra high risk euro-sovereigns yield (ex-Greece & Portugal) and trade in the 6-7% universe (Spain c.6.7% Italy c.6%) , as monetarists stand by the taps to turn on the QE printing presses for an umteenth time there is one thing that everyone should be made aware of now. Well, two things actually but who's counting in the scale of incalculable accounting inaccuracies everywhere.
It has been my studied belief for the last decade now that we are entering a period that monetarists and economists everywhere will in years to come call the 'the second coming of the gold standard' but actually I have coined a name for this phase that I think is more appropriate. We're now in the "PGS" era or as I like to call it, "The Pseudo Gold Standard" period. Heck, if that eternal optimist from Goldman Sachs Economics team, Jim O'Neill (he's being lined up for the Bank of England Governorship), can achieve eternal recognition, near immortality for coining the phrase "B R I C" (Brazil Russia India China in case anyone has missed it) then please give ME the credit for "PGS". By the way whilst we're at this game I may as well tell you that my friend Mr Finbar Taggit of http://www.fintag.com/ has already coined the abbreviation "P I I S" which I think takes into account the expected ejection of Greece (or is it a retreat?) from the "P I I G S" fiasco. Please don't take exception to "P I I S". I believe it stands for Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain who possibly are next up for a wee spot of bother although with spanish banks currently in the doldrums I think Finbar could have chosen the more chronological "S I I P", "S I P I" or perhaps "S P I I". Anyway he's taken the "P I I S" abbreviation and we must all live with it.
"PGS" for the sake of asking is in fact the blatant recognition from 'credit economies' that they'd prefer to back their currencies with bullion whilst the US, UK and all of the old European powers prefer to trash their currencies and economies through the daft and persistent programs known as QE. Just recently the IMF reported the following gold bullion purchases ;- Philippines (32 tonnes), Sri Lanka (2), Turkey (29), Mexico (3), Kazakhstan (2) and Ukraine (1.4). Can anyone spot the anomaly here? No european super-powers and just Ceylon as the former colony. Or the curiosity? Just why would Turkey buy gold and still want to join the EU.....of boy! It seems the developing world understands basic global economics and sensible sovereign governance better than many of our own central bankers, politicians, economists, etc. I'd expect more of the same here for many years to come as (financial, social and military) stress seems to be the order of the day everywhere.
In reference to the titled equation at the top of this blog just what is "PQE" then? Well, it's something else I've just coined. It's called "Personal Quantative Easing" and it goes like this. If say Mervyn King thinks that future generations of Brits are having their jobs and incomes protected through QE then "PQE" may be a valid alternative for those fed up with QE and the lack of growth equating to job creation, etc. QE as we all know creates electronic money in order to buy gilts (UK gov debt) with the idea of injecting liquidity into the financial markets and eventual economy. It's supposed to catalyse bank lending too but since there wasn't any lending to SME's before the crisis started in 2007 I don't see how we can expect to have a banking system designed to stimulate business when actually it has been profiting from the very same businesses the banking industry is and was designed to support. Pretty well since the late '80s all our commercial banks have traded against us not with us. This has been particularly true ironically of the financial services industry as we all know. That subject is for another day.
So if one has cash and one is concerned about the UK economy what does one do with it? Buying gilts has been and is a pointless exercise. They are all horrendously over-priced and only for the brave bar the odd index-linked variety. With official inflation today at c. 3% (from 5%) and possible real inflation ("pri" oh stop it!) nearer to 10% there is little scope for liquid asset protection. Banks are paying zero to a farthing on deposits and current accounts whilst higher risk building societies challenge the bank rate mechanics by offering HIGH RISK RATES without health warnings to countless unsuspecting depositors. Are these cash packages really protected by FSCS £80,000 threshold? Well, time will tell.
No, the extraordinary observation and opportunity is in "PQE". Whilst tax payers annd ordinary citizens stand by to allow QE there is a market methodology all of its own that is being devised as I speak. Starting with the premise that Gold is cheap and going up (see countless sensible analysts and their arguments for this premise) then it is easy to assume that a bonanza in gold shares will ultimately follow. Meanwhile today one can take very little risk in capital markets by purchasing shares (is the risk really any different to government backed guarantees in an horrendous debt enforced environment?) in some of the large producers at rock bottom prices (p/e's in low single digits). For example (note ALL gross yields before tax) Newmont yields 2.87%, Freeport McMoran 3.86%, Agnico Eagle 2.01%, Barrick Resources 2.00% (on LSE African Barrick yields 3.01%, Petropavlovsk 3.25% and Randgold 0.50% by comparison), GoldCorp 1.43% and there are countless others also paying out dividends on a more favourable basis than bank deposits and with the added bonus of a major pick up in prices in the foreseeable future. Much has been stated about the reason for the pricing anomaly but in essence it would appear that our old adversaries at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have been shorting gold shares for several years whilst going LONG the gold ETF market. It's feasible that the hedging will get reversed quite soon with new sovereigns openly buying bullion positions. The IMF and UK are just two powers that have virtually exhausted their gold reserves. I'd expect this to be reversed as the penny is indeed dropping. As an aside Newmont has stated that it's dividend policy will reflect the gold price; so if Gold goes say to $3,000pto the dividend should increase pari passu. It's mind boggling to consider though if Gold goes to the top end forecast of $60,000pto. Who said that Gold is NOT a credible investment (or currency) against a derivatives driven banking and capital markets universe? In addition if one's a bull of the oil price similar attractive yields can be found in oil majors right now. Conoco Phillips yield 4.98%, Royal Dutch Shell 5.11%, Encana 3.84% with a host of others offering returns around 2 x (+) higher than current UK and US 10-year yields. DYOR.
So try a bit of "PQE" if you recognise "PGS", you know it will one day make sense and may well get us all out of a rather large hole.
NOTE THIS BLOG IS NOT DEEMED TO BE AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY COMMODITIES OR EQUITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLE.
It has been my studied belief for the last decade now that we are entering a period that monetarists and economists everywhere will in years to come call the 'the second coming of the gold standard' but actually I have coined a name for this phase that I think is more appropriate. We're now in the "PGS" era or as I like to call it, "The Pseudo Gold Standard" period. Heck, if that eternal optimist from Goldman Sachs Economics team, Jim O'Neill (he's being lined up for the Bank of England Governorship), can achieve eternal recognition, near immortality for coining the phrase "B R I C" (Brazil Russia India China in case anyone has missed it) then please give ME the credit for "PGS". By the way whilst we're at this game I may as well tell you that my friend Mr Finbar Taggit of http://www.fintag.com/ has already coined the abbreviation "P I I S" which I think takes into account the expected ejection of Greece (or is it a retreat?) from the "P I I G S" fiasco. Please don't take exception to "P I I S". I believe it stands for Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain who possibly are next up for a wee spot of bother although with spanish banks currently in the doldrums I think Finbar could have chosen the more chronological "S I I P", "S I P I" or perhaps "S P I I". Anyway he's taken the "P I I S" abbreviation and we must all live with it.
"PGS" for the sake of asking is in fact the blatant recognition from 'credit economies' that they'd prefer to back their currencies with bullion whilst the US, UK and all of the old European powers prefer to trash their currencies and economies through the daft and persistent programs known as QE. Just recently the IMF reported the following gold bullion purchases ;- Philippines (32 tonnes), Sri Lanka (2), Turkey (29), Mexico (3), Kazakhstan (2) and Ukraine (1.4). Can anyone spot the anomaly here? No european super-powers and just Ceylon as the former colony. Or the curiosity? Just why would Turkey buy gold and still want to join the EU.....of boy! It seems the developing world understands basic global economics and sensible sovereign governance better than many of our own central bankers, politicians, economists, etc. I'd expect more of the same here for many years to come as (financial, social and military) stress seems to be the order of the day everywhere.
In reference to the titled equation at the top of this blog just what is "PQE" then? Well, it's something else I've just coined. It's called "Personal Quantative Easing" and it goes like this. If say Mervyn King thinks that future generations of Brits are having their jobs and incomes protected through QE then "PQE" may be a valid alternative for those fed up with QE and the lack of growth equating to job creation, etc. QE as we all know creates electronic money in order to buy gilts (UK gov debt) with the idea of injecting liquidity into the financial markets and eventual economy. It's supposed to catalyse bank lending too but since there wasn't any lending to SME's before the crisis started in 2007 I don't see how we can expect to have a banking system designed to stimulate business when actually it has been profiting from the very same businesses the banking industry is and was designed to support. Pretty well since the late '80s all our commercial banks have traded against us not with us. This has been particularly true ironically of the financial services industry as we all know. That subject is for another day.
So if one has cash and one is concerned about the UK economy what does one do with it? Buying gilts has been and is a pointless exercise. They are all horrendously over-priced and only for the brave bar the odd index-linked variety. With official inflation today at c. 3% (from 5%) and possible real inflation ("pri" oh stop it!) nearer to 10% there is little scope for liquid asset protection. Banks are paying zero to a farthing on deposits and current accounts whilst higher risk building societies challenge the bank rate mechanics by offering HIGH RISK RATES without health warnings to countless unsuspecting depositors. Are these cash packages really protected by FSCS £80,000 threshold? Well, time will tell.
No, the extraordinary observation and opportunity is in "PQE". Whilst tax payers annd ordinary citizens stand by to allow QE there is a market methodology all of its own that is being devised as I speak. Starting with the premise that Gold is cheap and going up (see countless sensible analysts and their arguments for this premise) then it is easy to assume that a bonanza in gold shares will ultimately follow. Meanwhile today one can take very little risk in capital markets by purchasing shares (is the risk really any different to government backed guarantees in an horrendous debt enforced environment?) in some of the large producers at rock bottom prices (p/e's in low single digits). For example (note ALL gross yields before tax) Newmont yields 2.87%, Freeport McMoran 3.86%, Agnico Eagle 2.01%, Barrick Resources 2.00% (on LSE African Barrick yields 3.01%, Petropavlovsk 3.25% and Randgold 0.50% by comparison), GoldCorp 1.43% and there are countless others also paying out dividends on a more favourable basis than bank deposits and with the added bonus of a major pick up in prices in the foreseeable future. Much has been stated about the reason for the pricing anomaly but in essence it would appear that our old adversaries at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have been shorting gold shares for several years whilst going LONG the gold ETF market. It's feasible that the hedging will get reversed quite soon with new sovereigns openly buying bullion positions. The IMF and UK are just two powers that have virtually exhausted their gold reserves. I'd expect this to be reversed as the penny is indeed dropping. As an aside Newmont has stated that it's dividend policy will reflect the gold price; so if Gold goes say to $3,000pto the dividend should increase pari passu. It's mind boggling to consider though if Gold goes to the top end forecast of $60,000pto. Who said that Gold is NOT a credible investment (or currency) against a derivatives driven banking and capital markets universe? In addition if one's a bull of the oil price similar attractive yields can be found in oil majors right now. Conoco Phillips yield 4.98%, Royal Dutch Shell 5.11%, Encana 3.84% with a host of others offering returns around 2 x (+) higher than current UK and US 10-year yields. DYOR.
So try a bit of "PQE" if you recognise "PGS", you know it will one day make sense and may well get us all out of a rather large hole.
NOTE THIS BLOG IS NOT DEEMED TO BE AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY COMMODITIES OR EQUITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLE.
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