With the publication of my uncle's book on JM Keynes I thought it opportune to mention that JMK had an interesting pedigree in investing. READ ON;-
You will probably know John Maynard Keynes as one of the great economists. What is often forgotten is that he was also one of the greatest investors of the Great Depression era. Given what markets are now going through, it’s well worth looking at how exactly he achieved that. Keynes managed Cambridge’s King’s College Chest Fund. The Fund averaged 12% per year from 1927–1946. That is a remarkable record given that the period included the Great Depression and World War II. The U.K. stock market fell 15% during this stretch. It’s even more impressive when you consider that the college spent all the income earned in the portfolio. That means the Fund’s returns only included capital gain. Keynes also made a personal fortune as an investor. When he died, he left an estate worth some $30 million in present-day dollars. How he did it is a fascinating story.
From speculator to investor
Keynes began as a run-of-mill speculator and trader, trying to anticipate trends and forecast cycles. Things didn’t go too well. The Great Crash of 1929 wiped out nearly 80% of his personal net worth.
That proved to be his epiphany. The crash turned Keynes from a speculator to a genuine investor. Trading the market demanded “abnormal foresight” to work, he concluded. “I am clear,” he wrote, “that the idea of wholesale shifts [in and out of the market at different stages of the business cycle] is for various reasons impracticable and undesirable.” He now focused more on individual securities and less on trying to forecast the market. He summed up his new philosophy in a note to a colleague: “My purpose is to buy securities where I am satisfied as to assets and ultimate earnings power and where the market price seems cheap in relation to these.”
He also became more patient in his pursuit of returns. Keynes decided it was easier and safer in the long run to buy a 75-cent dollar and wait, rather than to buy a 75-cent dollar and sell it because it became a 50-cent dollar — and hope to buy it back as a 40-cent dollar. When the market fell, Keynes remarked: “I do not draw from this conclusion that a responsible investing body should every week cast panic glances over its list of securities to find one more victim to fling to the bears.” He learned to trust more in his own research and opinions, and not let market prices put him off a good deal. Investing, he said, is “the one sphere of life and activity where victory, security and success is always to the minority, and never to the majority. When you find anyone agreeing with you, change your mind.”
How Keynes cleaned up after markets had tanked
One of his greatest personal coups came in 1933. The Great Depression was on. Markets had tanked. Keynes noticed that American utilities were extremely cheap in “what is for the time being an irrationally unfashionable market.” He bought the depressed stocks. In the next year, his personal net worth would nearly triple. He learned to hold onto his stocks “through thick and thin” to let the magic of compounding boost his investments. “‘Be quiet’ is our best motto,” he wrote. By that he meant you should ignore the short-term noise and let the longer-term forces assert themselves. It also meant limiting his activities to buying only when he found intrinsic values far above stock prices.
Keynes also concluded that it is better to own fewer stocks than spread yourself too thin. You should concentrate only on your very best ideas. This goes against conventional investing wisdom and he was repeatedly criticised for making big bets on a smaller number of companies. In one witty response to his critics, Keynes suggested that he was “...suffering from my chronic delusion that one good share is safer than 10 bad ones.”
He preferred to mix up the risks he took. So while just five names might make up half of his portfolio at a time, they wouldn’t be all gold stocks, for instance.
Keynes’s long-term, contrarian strategy delivered investment returns far superior to those of the broader market. In the 1920s he generally trailed the market. But he was a great performer after the crash. However, his methods did also mean his portfolio was more volatile.
As an investor, you are going to have to get used to higher volatility in your portfolio in the years ahead. But as Keynes’s career shows us, that also opens up the opportunity for much higher returns.
***comment from Fleet Street Daily***
I was very pleased to read the investment tribute to JMK. According to his university his investment papers included papers from the following firms. I believe I may be the only surviving business from the box!
Statements of account and share settlement notes. This file includes documents from the following brokers: W. Harold Brett; Capel, Cure and Terry; B.C. Fry and Co.; Hoblyn and King; Whiteheads and Coles. It also includes receipts for admission fees to the Society of Inner Temple, 1905.
8 items in envelope; paper.....
***they've all disappeared except.....me***
Richard Hoblyn says: of course he needed a good stockbroker or two to assist him....Hoblyn & King and Capel Cure Myers I believe
Tuesday, 31 March 2009
Thursday, 26 February 2009
Who is "Hoblyn"?
That is a difficult question to answer but let me try....
"Hoblyn" or "Hoblyn's" or "The Limping Monarch" is a trading name synonymous with the City of London for 136 years. In 1974 the partnership "Hoblyn & Co" was the largest casualty of the '74 slump being the largest firm on the Stock Exchange in London to cease trading on a voluntary basis. With the Tower Block being completed c.1972 "Hoblyn's" moved into 2 floors paying £170,000 per floor in rent. With income tax bands approaching equivalent 98p in the £1 and a surcharge to boot it became abundantly clear to the partners (of around another 50 firms during that period as well)that the writing on the wall was imminent so the firm ceased in October of '74. But the "Limping Monarch" awakens as the latest global markets crunch unwinds and brings a few gentle reminders to how Capital Markets should operate.
"Hoblyn" or "Hoblyn's" or "The Limping Monarch" is a trading name synonymous with the City of London for 136 years. In 1974 the partnership "Hoblyn & Co" was the largest casualty of the '74 slump being the largest firm on the Stock Exchange in London to cease trading on a voluntary basis. With the Tower Block being completed c.1972 "Hoblyn's" moved into 2 floors paying £170,000 per floor in rent. With income tax bands approaching equivalent 98p in the £1 and a surcharge to boot it became abundantly clear to the partners (of around another 50 firms during that period as well)that the writing on the wall was imminent so the firm ceased in October of '74. But the "Limping Monarch" awakens as the latest global markets crunch unwinds and brings a few gentle reminders to how Capital Markets should operate.
RBS or paraphrasing a famous rock star, the "THE GOVERNMENT INSTITUTION FORMALLY KNOWN AS THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND"
I have just read this
The market has reacted favourably to the big announcement by Royal Bank of Scotland this morning, with losses not as bad as feared.
Broker Panmure Gordon believes the favourable pricing of the asset protection scheme, along with the £25.5bn capital increase, “will remove the immediate capital concerns about RBS”, and also bodes well for Lloyds Banking Group, although Lloyds has said it may not get the same bail-out terms as RBS.
“While we do have concerns about further losses and capital strains, particularly in the £991bn of derivatives, we expect these concerns will crystallise over the next six months; for now, the markets will probably focus on the favourable terms of this bailout,” suggests Panmure analyst Sandy Chen.
Nevertheless, the broker retains its “sell” recommendation on RBS.
***this is quite incredible; I love the so matter of factness on the numbers and the fact that the derivatives number is just thrown in as an aside***
Richard Hoblyn says; Sandy Chen of Panmure's is probably the most respected banking analyst in London but even his take on the scenario unfolding appears understated. Notwithstanding that he has a reiterated SELL on RBS (personally I think the stock is worthless) it should be noted that today RBS has passed over to the UK government scheme (beautifully described as The Asset Protection Scheme) circa £325bn of toxic assets which only a matter of months ago this bank, like many others, claimed they didn't have. Nothwithstanding the fact that the taxpayer is effectively bailing out these huge bank positions (and it's unclear whether losses have been realised as yet on this transfer) it should be noted that there is no guarantee that these positions, these toxic assets, will protect the government nor indeed the tax-payer. The bravado of this ill-conceived rescue plan dwarfs anything that even Hollywood could dream up. But to really put the icing on the cake, it has been stated, now in BLACK & WHITE, that the derivatives totalling £991bn (where did that come from Sir Fred?) may yet be crystallised in the coming months. I doubt any principal asset manager would entertain any of these positions now that we know the on-balance position (& I expect there are still £trillions off-balance that we have yet to hear about; until it is too late) and presuming RBS, like all the other banks, is trying to offload these positions in an orderly way as possible the omens for further extreme losses dwarfing today's record loss of £24.1bn for 2008 is highly likely. With a bank now effectively being run by Gordon Brown I wouldn't want to bet my City umbrella on RBS surviving in its present format too much longer. With a Market Capitalisation of £11.4bn I think the London Stock Exchange has a responsibility to ask the RBS board to clarify its financial position because on the face of this travesty it would appear that a false market is being maintained which may impact badly on the status of the London Stock Exchange. As Mr Levett, the former SEC Chairman, suggested only yesterday describing the US intervention in Bank of America and Citigroup, "these banks are all but nationalised already with governments representatives on the boards". If this indeed is the case then surely the respective "Global" Stock Exchanges should suspend dealings in these rotten "BAD BANKS" shares forthwith as I don't believe there is a remit in any FREE market enterprise to maintain a market in this sort of (in)security.
Ou est la grenouille de Threadneedle Street audjourdhui?
The market has reacted favourably to the big announcement by Royal Bank of Scotland this morning, with losses not as bad as feared.
Broker Panmure Gordon believes the favourable pricing of the asset protection scheme, along with the £25.5bn capital increase, “will remove the immediate capital concerns about RBS”, and also bodes well for Lloyds Banking Group, although Lloyds has said it may not get the same bail-out terms as RBS.
“While we do have concerns about further losses and capital strains, particularly in the £991bn of derivatives, we expect these concerns will crystallise over the next six months; for now, the markets will probably focus on the favourable terms of this bailout,” suggests Panmure analyst Sandy Chen.
Nevertheless, the broker retains its “sell” recommendation on RBS.
***this is quite incredible; I love the so matter of factness on the numbers and the fact that the derivatives number is just thrown in as an aside***
Richard Hoblyn says; Sandy Chen of Panmure's is probably the most respected banking analyst in London but even his take on the scenario unfolding appears understated. Notwithstanding that he has a reiterated SELL on RBS (personally I think the stock is worthless) it should be noted that today RBS has passed over to the UK government scheme (beautifully described as The Asset Protection Scheme) circa £325bn of toxic assets which only a matter of months ago this bank, like many others, claimed they didn't have. Nothwithstanding the fact that the taxpayer is effectively bailing out these huge bank positions (and it's unclear whether losses have been realised as yet on this transfer) it should be noted that there is no guarantee that these positions, these toxic assets, will protect the government nor indeed the tax-payer. The bravado of this ill-conceived rescue plan dwarfs anything that even Hollywood could dream up. But to really put the icing on the cake, it has been stated, now in BLACK & WHITE, that the derivatives totalling £991bn (where did that come from Sir Fred?) may yet be crystallised in the coming months. I doubt any principal asset manager would entertain any of these positions now that we know the on-balance position (& I expect there are still £trillions off-balance that we have yet to hear about; until it is too late) and presuming RBS, like all the other banks, is trying to offload these positions in an orderly way as possible the omens for further extreme losses dwarfing today's record loss of £24.1bn for 2008 is highly likely. With a bank now effectively being run by Gordon Brown I wouldn't want to bet my City umbrella on RBS surviving in its present format too much longer. With a Market Capitalisation of £11.4bn I think the London Stock Exchange has a responsibility to ask the RBS board to clarify its financial position because on the face of this travesty it would appear that a false market is being maintained which may impact badly on the status of the London Stock Exchange. As Mr Levett, the former SEC Chairman, suggested only yesterday describing the US intervention in Bank of America and Citigroup, "these banks are all but nationalised already with governments representatives on the boards". If this indeed is the case then surely the respective "Global" Stock Exchanges should suspend dealings in these rotten "BAD BANKS" shares forthwith as I don't believe there is a remit in any FREE market enterprise to maintain a market in this sort of (in)security.
Ou est la grenouille de Threadneedle Street audjourdhui?
Sunday, 15 February 2009
UK Banking -SPECIAL REPORT UPDATE & UK property
UK Banking Report UPDATE & the outlook for UK Property
Since subscribing to the view in my previous report of 20th January 2009 the state of UK banking as predicted has indeed got worse. Not only have Cattles Finance (see previous report) been forced to withdraw their application to FSA (extraordinary that the regulator is responsible for new applications in the first instance) for a retail licence but the Sir James Crosby fiasco has arisen dwarfing any other issues. In essence the former HBOS architect was recruited as Deputy-Chair of the City regulator, FSA even after HBOS apparently received criticism of its handling of risk some years ago. The revelations of HBOS’s former Head of Regulatory Risk, Paul Moore, are poised to expose Gordon Brown’s involvement in the Lloyds TSB/HBOS merger. In addition to the impending failure this week of Lloyds Banking Group after the continuing worsening property and lending climate it has emerged that RBS, the main provocateur in the banking crisis, has involved itself with tax-payers money in £200m of sports sponsorship. Furthermore the revelation in the Mail on Sunday last weekend that Barclays had secreted nearly £700m bonuses for its executives has only cemented the extraordinary level of corruption and greed within the UK banking industry. Despite unprecedented losses the ‘guaranteed bonus culture’ is still with us. There seems to be a total disconnect between the legal responsibilities that Directors of banks have and the rights of shareholders (many of whom now are the UK tax-payers indirectly). The repurcussions for the future of the City of London are indeed frightening if these bankers are not brought to book and held account for their actions. In essence the bankers have turned into ‘Dick Whittington-esque’ characters with no morals and as it turns out with no idea of their responsibilities or any ideas of how to retreat from this mess.
As I have suggested repeatedly one cannot expect the architects of the global financial crisis to sort out the problems that they themselves have created. I was reminded this week of Albert Einstein’s quote; “Never expect the people who caused a problem to solve it.”
Much has been said of the ineffectiveness of the UK regulator, the FSA in all of this and it should be remembered that it was the Conservative Party under Margaret Thatcher who created the concept of external regulation for City firms. There were many (and my former stockbroking colleagues in small private firms I worked with were in unison on their views in this at the time) who believed that having non-practitioners regulating City traders brokers and financiers would just create more havoc eventually and indeed this has been the result. The case for better investor protection and improved professional conduct from City employees has not transpired and personally I find it absurd that I should need to have to constantly prove to regulators the level of my own ‘integrity’. The new bonus culture within the FSA shows that like the very bankers previously aforementioned the regulators themselves have disconnected from their responsibilities. Just this week the FSA made public its economic forecast. Time and again the FSA has proved that it no longer aspires to regulatory status but to a dictatorial policy status that at times is more than just a little Stalin-esque. In my view the whole application process for corporate membership of FSA and London Stock Exchange needs to be re-examined before entrepreneurial practitioners move elsewhere. After all in a global interactive financial world (as I’ve proved myself) the domicile of practitioners can be pretty elastic as investors flock to the global online universe.
Well what is the solution to the banking crisis? There is no easy fix but a responsible government working with the regulators could encourage new banks and brokers to be formed; certainly the rules (see Cattles experience and those of private stockbrokers since Big Bang) could be fast-tracked to do this but what probably is required first and foremost is for the government’s banks to hive-off the customer lists, trading names (TSB, Bank of Scotland, Coutts, National Westminster, etc) and staff as quickly as possible. I really do believe that brokers and funds would rather invest in purer banks and avoid having to analyse derivative exposures that RBS etc have. We’ll see what transpires but in this environment where so many people seem to have forgotten what their roles are as well as the raison d’etre for these businesses in the first place I think it may take some years for confidence to return. Certainly as every small businessman knows full well that unless the City encourages entrepreneurs from within to form new banks and brokers the outlook is even more Stalin-esque with MiFID and other EU regulations knocking on the doors of City firms.
My views on property have not changed. I still believe that a top to bottom depreciation of up to -70% in values throughout the UK is still possible. At this juncture official statistics seem to have disconnected from reality. Land registry and building society statistics showing executed transactions since August 2007 probably indicate a -15/20% decline to date but looking at www.propertysnake.co.uk a near -40% fall in values is being experienced by many who cannot simply sell at any price. Obviously with a malfunctioning banking system, a failing credit checking operandi, a liquidity crunch in the money markets and new stricter lending criteria then the outlook is truly dismal. Whilst looking at www.primelocation.com this week it is clear that many developers have buried their heads in the sands and that estate agents are walking around completely dazed by economic and financial events that they simply don’t understand. The outlook for £sterling is truly dire (gold and precious metals investments are the only sound areas to consider at the moment) and the need to arise £200bn in the gilt market is going to rear up in the not too distant future. In my view the property market is on the edge of a cliff and if RBS and Lloyds do join Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley in the government bank (has anyone got a brand name that suits yet?) then the prices could collapse dramatically as estate agents and valuers enter a ‘no bid’ universe where intrinsic or build value is the only way to evaluate property values going forward.
As I write this banking blog I have just heard Lord ‘Roy’ Hattersley on Sky News call for more tighter regulation in the UK financial services suggesting that regulation has been far too light. Well Roy can I suggest that you visit any private client stockbroker and try and do his job for a day.
Since subscribing to the view in my previous report of 20th January 2009 the state of UK banking as predicted has indeed got worse. Not only have Cattles Finance (see previous report) been forced to withdraw their application to FSA (extraordinary that the regulator is responsible for new applications in the first instance) for a retail licence but the Sir James Crosby fiasco has arisen dwarfing any other issues. In essence the former HBOS architect was recruited as Deputy-Chair of the City regulator, FSA even after HBOS apparently received criticism of its handling of risk some years ago. The revelations of HBOS’s former Head of Regulatory Risk, Paul Moore, are poised to expose Gordon Brown’s involvement in the Lloyds TSB/HBOS merger. In addition to the impending failure this week of Lloyds Banking Group after the continuing worsening property and lending climate it has emerged that RBS, the main provocateur in the banking crisis, has involved itself with tax-payers money in £200m of sports sponsorship. Furthermore the revelation in the Mail on Sunday last weekend that Barclays had secreted nearly £700m bonuses for its executives has only cemented the extraordinary level of corruption and greed within the UK banking industry. Despite unprecedented losses the ‘guaranteed bonus culture’ is still with us. There seems to be a total disconnect between the legal responsibilities that Directors of banks have and the rights of shareholders (many of whom now are the UK tax-payers indirectly). The repurcussions for the future of the City of London are indeed frightening if these bankers are not brought to book and held account for their actions. In essence the bankers have turned into ‘Dick Whittington-esque’ characters with no morals and as it turns out with no idea of their responsibilities or any ideas of how to retreat from this mess.
As I have suggested repeatedly one cannot expect the architects of the global financial crisis to sort out the problems that they themselves have created. I was reminded this week of Albert Einstein’s quote; “Never expect the people who caused a problem to solve it.”
Much has been said of the ineffectiveness of the UK regulator, the FSA in all of this and it should be remembered that it was the Conservative Party under Margaret Thatcher who created the concept of external regulation for City firms. There were many (and my former stockbroking colleagues in small private firms I worked with were in unison on their views in this at the time) who believed that having non-practitioners regulating City traders brokers and financiers would just create more havoc eventually and indeed this has been the result. The case for better investor protection and improved professional conduct from City employees has not transpired and personally I find it absurd that I should need to have to constantly prove to regulators the level of my own ‘integrity’. The new bonus culture within the FSA shows that like the very bankers previously aforementioned the regulators themselves have disconnected from their responsibilities. Just this week the FSA made public its economic forecast. Time and again the FSA has proved that it no longer aspires to regulatory status but to a dictatorial policy status that at times is more than just a little Stalin-esque. In my view the whole application process for corporate membership of FSA and London Stock Exchange needs to be re-examined before entrepreneurial practitioners move elsewhere. After all in a global interactive financial world (as I’ve proved myself) the domicile of practitioners can be pretty elastic as investors flock to the global online universe.
Well what is the solution to the banking crisis? There is no easy fix but a responsible government working with the regulators could encourage new banks and brokers to be formed; certainly the rules (see Cattles experience and those of private stockbrokers since Big Bang) could be fast-tracked to do this but what probably is required first and foremost is for the government’s banks to hive-off the customer lists, trading names (TSB, Bank of Scotland, Coutts, National Westminster, etc) and staff as quickly as possible. I really do believe that brokers and funds would rather invest in purer banks and avoid having to analyse derivative exposures that RBS etc have. We’ll see what transpires but in this environment where so many people seem to have forgotten what their roles are as well as the raison d’etre for these businesses in the first place I think it may take some years for confidence to return. Certainly as every small businessman knows full well that unless the City encourages entrepreneurs from within to form new banks and brokers the outlook is even more Stalin-esque with MiFID and other EU regulations knocking on the doors of City firms.
My views on property have not changed. I still believe that a top to bottom depreciation of up to -70% in values throughout the UK is still possible. At this juncture official statistics seem to have disconnected from reality. Land registry and building society statistics showing executed transactions since August 2007 probably indicate a -15/20% decline to date but looking at www.propertysnake.co.uk a near -40% fall in values is being experienced by many who cannot simply sell at any price. Obviously with a malfunctioning banking system, a failing credit checking operandi, a liquidity crunch in the money markets and new stricter lending criteria then the outlook is truly dismal. Whilst looking at www.primelocation.com this week it is clear that many developers have buried their heads in the sands and that estate agents are walking around completely dazed by economic and financial events that they simply don’t understand. The outlook for £sterling is truly dire (gold and precious metals investments are the only sound areas to consider at the moment) and the need to arise £200bn in the gilt market is going to rear up in the not too distant future. In my view the property market is on the edge of a cliff and if RBS and Lloyds do join Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley in the government bank (has anyone got a brand name that suits yet?) then the prices could collapse dramatically as estate agents and valuers enter a ‘no bid’ universe where intrinsic or build value is the only way to evaluate property values going forward.
As I write this banking blog I have just heard Lord ‘Roy’ Hattersley on Sky News call for more tighter regulation in the UK financial services suggesting that regulation has been far too light. Well Roy can I suggest that you visit any private client stockbroker and try and do his job for a day.
Tuesday, 20 January 2009
UK Banking -SPECIAL REPORT
UK Banking
SPECIAL REPORT
20th January 2009
When I joined the Chartered Bank (then part of Standard & Chartered Banking Group) in 1976 the UK banking scene offered customers huge competitive opportunities both in the domestic and international markets but as banking consolidation accelerated it became abundantly clear that customers became third choice after shareholders and bank employees as City bonuses magnified. With the advent of ‘big bank’ in 1986 the UK regulator (now FSA) started interfering in the mechanics of how the London Stock Exchange operated but also in other areas such as the banking industry. Whilst reading the recent finance group, Cattles PLC statement I was appalled to discover that Cattles application for a retail banking licence was made to FSA and NOT the Bank of England. For many of us the Labour government’s antics with referring interest rate policy to the Bank of England has resulted in the ‘Old Lady’ failing in it’s role to police and supervise the UK banking industry. As “lender of last resort” there is clearly an impartial role here as senior bankers debate interest rate policy and try to appease the money market rates and forces of the market whilst supposedly acting as chaperone to UK banking. If the City of London’s credibility is to survive the overhang of recent events I believe that the UK government needs to return this interest rate process to HM Treasury immediately, strengthen the bank’s oversight role and investigate the actions of the London Stock Exchange for allowing a continuous repetitive backwardisation since 12noon till yesterday’s close whereby it was almost impossible for an orderly market in RBS’s shares to be conducted. A suspension of RBS’s listing should have prevailed but in fact only those with SETS (Stock Exchange Automated Trading System) access could deal preventing many investors from transacting business in the security. Notwithstanding this the extraordinary lack of transparency in bank balance sheets and off-balance has clearly torpedoed any attempts to stabilise the system since October last year.
The real problem that politicians, regulators, auditors and other practitioners need to address is that the derivatives tail globally is now estimated at US$600 trillion (£428 trillion @ 1.40). Assuming that UK businesses have say 10% exposure to this and conservatively control another 10% acting in their capacities as agents/advisors then the UK’s exposure to CDO’s, SIV’S and a host of other predominantly synthetic derivative instruments could be calculated at £86 trillion. Now it’s fair to say that not all these derivative positions are necessarily toxic but taking a conservative estimate of say 20% problematic, 50% possibly problematic then UK’s banking exposure could be somewhere in the £17 trillion to £43 trillion ball park (from now till 2025). Madness? Perhaps not! With RBS potentially putting £2 trillion transparently onto UK plc’s depleted balance sheet in the foreseeable future the likelihood is that if that happens and an orderly unwinding of RBS’s toxic positions took place alongside non-toxic assets (the sale of 4% stake of Bank of China was a typical fire sale valuation) then a liability to UK plc and tax-payers could easily accelerate to nearer £20 trillion of losses alone. Realistically massive banking write-offs need to happen hereon but the accounting mechanisms and laws governing insolvency are being severely tested and many believe as I do that these banks should enter into administration allowing for rump asset sales going forward (eg Coutts is a great brand within RBS; HSBC could off-load First Direct). The expected time-frame of offloading the government investment in banks such as RBS, Lloyds TSB, Northern Rock are totally unrealistic and UK shareholders do need to see that creditors and investors may actually retrieve a 1p or so per share rather than being absorbed into the UK plc p&l and balance sheet.
As at today the UK banking industry is on its knees and the resulting reaction to the level of £sterling internationally could be disastrous. Closer collaboration with ECB could again be disastrous as EU bankers struggle to cope with their own severe problems. More consolidation is likely but shouldn’t be encouraged for competitive reasons. In fact the reverse should happen and the sooner ABN can be restructured and hived-off from RBS the better; ditto National Westminster. What really needs to happen hereon in Europe (and there are those like myself who were saying this back in October) is that new stock banks are formulated asap with the backing of the central banks with green lights from the regulators. For regulators to hold up new banks and brokerage licences in the modern financial era is totally unacceptable. Good business plans with credible managements should be backed and supported by central bankers, the stock exchanges and the regulators immediately. I don’t think that LSE and FSA in London have any idea the damage their onerous application processes are having and in this regard I would expect Swiss banking to benefit from further backlashes in UK.
As I write Barack Obama is being inauguarated as 44th President and Lloyds TSB are languishing down -15 at 50p after a far from convincing discussion on Sky News last night between Sir Victor Blank, Chairman of Lloyds TSB and Jeff Randall, the City commentator. The outlook for Lloyds TSB is stretched indeed after the extraordinary acquisition of HBOS which surprised many in the City for its illogical and risky nature. The opportunities of a combined 30% share of the UK mortgage market looks ill-conceived to me as property ownership in UK comes full circle. Similarly arab investors are nursing terrible losses (as yet uncrystallised) in Barclays which may be in the sights of Standard Chartered who appear to better placed than any of their competitors including their main rival HSBC. Further cash calls, government aid, and insurance are more than likely but without new banks being allowed to pitch for a share of the UK market then the outlook looks horrendous for citizens and businesses. There are still some good names in banking left (Arbuthnot, C Hoare) and a host of names that could be rejuvenated and it is imperative that some modern competition is created asap. There are some great opportunities for corporate financiers if only the regulatory regime could fast-track new applications.
Hold tight for a rocky ride!
I continue to recommend that clients buy fixed income and precious metals rather than deposit balances in excess of £50,000 into UK banking system at present.
SPECIAL REPORT
20th January 2009
When I joined the Chartered Bank (then part of Standard & Chartered Banking Group) in 1976 the UK banking scene offered customers huge competitive opportunities both in the domestic and international markets but as banking consolidation accelerated it became abundantly clear that customers became third choice after shareholders and bank employees as City bonuses magnified. With the advent of ‘big bank’ in 1986 the UK regulator (now FSA) started interfering in the mechanics of how the London Stock Exchange operated but also in other areas such as the banking industry. Whilst reading the recent finance group, Cattles PLC statement I was appalled to discover that Cattles application for a retail banking licence was made to FSA and NOT the Bank of England. For many of us the Labour government’s antics with referring interest rate policy to the Bank of England has resulted in the ‘Old Lady’ failing in it’s role to police and supervise the UK banking industry. As “lender of last resort” there is clearly an impartial role here as senior bankers debate interest rate policy and try to appease the money market rates and forces of the market whilst supposedly acting as chaperone to UK banking. If the City of London’s credibility is to survive the overhang of recent events I believe that the UK government needs to return this interest rate process to HM Treasury immediately, strengthen the bank’s oversight role and investigate the actions of the London Stock Exchange for allowing a continuous repetitive backwardisation since 12noon till yesterday’s close whereby it was almost impossible for an orderly market in RBS’s shares to be conducted. A suspension of RBS’s listing should have prevailed but in fact only those with SETS (Stock Exchange Automated Trading System) access could deal preventing many investors from transacting business in the security. Notwithstanding this the extraordinary lack of transparency in bank balance sheets and off-balance has clearly torpedoed any attempts to stabilise the system since October last year.
The real problem that politicians, regulators, auditors and other practitioners need to address is that the derivatives tail globally is now estimated at US$600 trillion (£428 trillion @ 1.40). Assuming that UK businesses have say 10% exposure to this and conservatively control another 10% acting in their capacities as agents/advisors then the UK’s exposure to CDO’s, SIV’S and a host of other predominantly synthetic derivative instruments could be calculated at £86 trillion. Now it’s fair to say that not all these derivative positions are necessarily toxic but taking a conservative estimate of say 20% problematic, 50% possibly problematic then UK’s banking exposure could be somewhere in the £17 trillion to £43 trillion ball park (from now till 2025). Madness? Perhaps not! With RBS potentially putting £2 trillion transparently onto UK plc’s depleted balance sheet in the foreseeable future the likelihood is that if that happens and an orderly unwinding of RBS’s toxic positions took place alongside non-toxic assets (the sale of 4% stake of Bank of China was a typical fire sale valuation) then a liability to UK plc and tax-payers could easily accelerate to nearer £20 trillion of losses alone. Realistically massive banking write-offs need to happen hereon but the accounting mechanisms and laws governing insolvency are being severely tested and many believe as I do that these banks should enter into administration allowing for rump asset sales going forward (eg Coutts is a great brand within RBS; HSBC could off-load First Direct). The expected time-frame of offloading the government investment in banks such as RBS, Lloyds TSB, Northern Rock are totally unrealistic and UK shareholders do need to see that creditors and investors may actually retrieve a 1p or so per share rather than being absorbed into the UK plc p&l and balance sheet.
As at today the UK banking industry is on its knees and the resulting reaction to the level of £sterling internationally could be disastrous. Closer collaboration with ECB could again be disastrous as EU bankers struggle to cope with their own severe problems. More consolidation is likely but shouldn’t be encouraged for competitive reasons. In fact the reverse should happen and the sooner ABN can be restructured and hived-off from RBS the better; ditto National Westminster. What really needs to happen hereon in Europe (and there are those like myself who were saying this back in October) is that new stock banks are formulated asap with the backing of the central banks with green lights from the regulators. For regulators to hold up new banks and brokerage licences in the modern financial era is totally unacceptable. Good business plans with credible managements should be backed and supported by central bankers, the stock exchanges and the regulators immediately. I don’t think that LSE and FSA in London have any idea the damage their onerous application processes are having and in this regard I would expect Swiss banking to benefit from further backlashes in UK.
As I write Barack Obama is being inauguarated as 44th President and Lloyds TSB are languishing down -15 at 50p after a far from convincing discussion on Sky News last night between Sir Victor Blank, Chairman of Lloyds TSB and Jeff Randall, the City commentator. The outlook for Lloyds TSB is stretched indeed after the extraordinary acquisition of HBOS which surprised many in the City for its illogical and risky nature. The opportunities of a combined 30% share of the UK mortgage market looks ill-conceived to me as property ownership in UK comes full circle. Similarly arab investors are nursing terrible losses (as yet uncrystallised) in Barclays which may be in the sights of Standard Chartered who appear to better placed than any of their competitors including their main rival HSBC. Further cash calls, government aid, and insurance are more than likely but without new banks being allowed to pitch for a share of the UK market then the outlook looks horrendous for citizens and businesses. There are still some good names in banking left (Arbuthnot, C Hoare) and a host of names that could be rejuvenated and it is imperative that some modern competition is created asap. There are some great opportunities for corporate financiers if only the regulatory regime could fast-track new applications.
Hold tight for a rocky ride!
I continue to recommend that clients buy fixed income and precious metals rather than deposit balances in excess of £50,000 into UK banking system at present.
Friday, 16 January 2009
**For the record*** My MARKET WARNING letter dated 16th August 2007
I'm not sure why I didn't post this at the time but the following letter was sent to my clients on 16th August 2007;-To ALL Hoblyn Clients
Our ref;- RPH/CT/marketwarning
16th August 2007
Dear Client(s)
Since writing to all my clients on 14th May predicting an unprecedented credit crunch a severe and unprecedented problem has indeed arisen in the US banking system. Although there are many interpretations and reasonings as events unfold it would appear that the inability of low quality (“sub-prime”) borrowers to repay mortgage arrears has led to falling property prices in the Mid-West and Florida starting a spiralling effect into the rest of US market. Doubts remain about the state of the largest mortgager, Countrywide as well as various mainstream Investment Banks, including Bear Stearns, Lehman and Goldman Sachs after hedge funds have been caught out holding illiquid positions. As margin calls persist these same banks are being forced to liquidate elsewhere. For years this type of “down wave” or “domino effect” has been predicted and although it’s impossible to gauge how the fallout will pan out it’s important to realise that the property bubble in UK is still intact. It has been apparent to me for most of the past decade that excessive valuations have been abundant in western retail property markets and I have had grave doubts about the so-called housing shortages as millions of homes remain empty as a result of excessive speculation. A comparison with the early ‘70’s secondary banking crisis and the bear market then could be made today although I fear that the current crisis, one mainly of shaken confidence so far, could lead to a fully blown bear market as the reality of unfathomed losses materialises and a US$500 trillion derivatives market attempts to unwind. It is ironical then that the hedge market could be the creation of the biggest market correction ever. The recommendations made after Enron and LTCM have been mainly ignored. Creative accounting and lack of transparency could well make many of the analysts redundant as cataclysmic financial events unfold.
In essence the bear market is long overdue. A technical double top or head and shoulders may well have formed between the top in December 1999 and June 2007. If this is the case the prognosis for equities is not good. Asset deflation could well accelerate as Central Banks dither on the best way to safeguard investors interests. I fear that any lowering of interest rates hereon could just add fuel to the fire.
As I said in May, “I continue to recommend only UK equities with a reliance on international scenarios, exposure to oil majors (BP & Royal Dutch Shell ‘B’), exposure to London based precious metals stocks (Randgold, Hochschild) and a moderate exposure to general miners, higher cash levels and a review of all property related investments”.
Our ref;- RPH/CT/marketwarning
16th August 2007
Dear Client(s)
Since writing to all my clients on 14th May predicting an unprecedented credit crunch a severe and unprecedented problem has indeed arisen in the US banking system. Although there are many interpretations and reasonings as events unfold it would appear that the inability of low quality (“sub-prime”) borrowers to repay mortgage arrears has led to falling property prices in the Mid-West and Florida starting a spiralling effect into the rest of US market. Doubts remain about the state of the largest mortgager, Countrywide as well as various mainstream Investment Banks, including Bear Stearns, Lehman and Goldman Sachs after hedge funds have been caught out holding illiquid positions. As margin calls persist these same banks are being forced to liquidate elsewhere. For years this type of “down wave” or “domino effect” has been predicted and although it’s impossible to gauge how the fallout will pan out it’s important to realise that the property bubble in UK is still intact. It has been apparent to me for most of the past decade that excessive valuations have been abundant in western retail property markets and I have had grave doubts about the so-called housing shortages as millions of homes remain empty as a result of excessive speculation. A comparison with the early ‘70’s secondary banking crisis and the bear market then could be made today although I fear that the current crisis, one mainly of shaken confidence so far, could lead to a fully blown bear market as the reality of unfathomed losses materialises and a US$500 trillion derivatives market attempts to unwind. It is ironical then that the hedge market could be the creation of the biggest market correction ever. The recommendations made after Enron and LTCM have been mainly ignored. Creative accounting and lack of transparency could well make many of the analysts redundant as cataclysmic financial events unfold.
In essence the bear market is long overdue. A technical double top or head and shoulders may well have formed between the top in December 1999 and June 2007. If this is the case the prognosis for equities is not good. Asset deflation could well accelerate as Central Banks dither on the best way to safeguard investors interests. I fear that any lowering of interest rates hereon could just add fuel to the fire.
As I said in May, “I continue to recommend only UK equities with a reliance on international scenarios, exposure to oil majors (BP & Royal Dutch Shell ‘B’), exposure to London based precious metals stocks (Randgold, Hochschild) and a moderate exposure to general miners, higher cash levels and a review of all property related investments”.
Tuesday, 13 January 2009
Review 4 Q 2008 7th January 2009
A senior partner of a major firm once said- “Look here my boy, if I knew what to do, I would not be here advising you, I would be on a yacht in the South of France” – a UK Private Client stockbroker probably circa 1974
With FTSE100 producing its worst ever performance for 2008 with a decline of 31.49% over the year and mostly factored during the September-November period I am not going to predict how FTSE100 will end in 2009 suffice to say that I do not expect an economic recovery for quite some time yet. Although every Wall Street strategist is ‘bullish’ for 09 it is important to remember that the very same ‘experts’ were bullish for 08; as my stockbroking father always said, “there are no experts in this business!”. My gut feeling though is that FTSE100 may well trade nearer to 4,000 than 4,600 where it is currently hovering and I wouldn’t be surprised to see S&P retest 800 during 09 despite Barack Obama’s economic stimulus.
The last quarter saw some extraordinary events many of them predicted by market observers. The bail out (TARP) of the world banking system was indeed unprecedented (a word that has been overused many times since) but like many market professionals I saw little merit then (and still do) in throwing tax payers future earnings at dubious balance sheets surrounded by black holes and ongoing derivative failures. The credit crunch, albeit predicted by many, did not play out as many thought. Whilst bank shares were crunched and hedge funds were forced to liquidate (where they could) positions the bottom fell out of base commodities dragging even precious metals prices and stocks across all sectors down with them. This was not meant to happen but it did. Furthermore the oil price once touching the high of $147pbo remarkably fell off the cliff next door and lost $100pbo in the same time frame; strangely the two oil majors on the FTSE100, BP and Royal Dutch held up pretty well over this period. The lesson to be learned I think is that many of the falls were liquidity driven so today there are plenty of opportunities for value investors and true fundamentalists adopting technical disciplines alongside differing strategies.
With the ban on short-selling of financials being lifted imminently (and many disagreed with it in the first place including myself) I wouldn’t be surprised if many more financial calamities occur (or get exposed like Bernie Madoff’s ponzi designed to scalp hedge fund investors). Whilst politicians call for more regulation it is important to note that rules are in place already. Although Sir Andrew Large (ex-Deputy Governor of the The Old Lady) calls for a new independent body that would provide early warnings of systemic problems and have the tools to discourage excessive borrowing many other people in the City would say that that is the Bank of England & FSA’s role in the first place. I gravely doubt more regulation is the answer whereas more emphasis on leaving practitioners to adjust the nuts and bolts and more expert oversight by these regulators is what is required. Hedge funds need to be regulated just like asset managers and private client stockbrokers. Quite why it has taken so long for governments and regulators to work out why Hedge Funds grew so alarmingly in the last few years surprises quite a few of us in the industry. The lack of regulation has clearly been the main attraction for boffins to leave investment banks and join the ‘hedgies’ on attractive 2/20 terms. That game is over as investors now try to escape the clutches of these over-priced illiquid operations. The fall out has already started and perhaps many will leave the hedge fund industry and reignite the investment banking industry which has been pulverised (Merrill’s and Goldman’s have become commercial banks; Lehman’s and Bear have disappeared) and written off even by the Sage of Omaha who’s own flame has flickered after he bought $5bn of preferences shares in Goldman’s. I don’t agree that the investment banking model is ‘dead’. The problem occurred when gearing and lending occurred in the late ‘90’s favouring the early birds in the hedge industry and it then outgrew itself; there are clearly skills needed from the redundant investment bankers but any new organisations do need to get back to basics where they fully understand their customers. The same could be said for commercial banks in the UK!
The strategy for 2009 should be therefore for UK domiciled investors to avoid financials, retails and industrials and focus on value plays (companies with strong transparent balance sheets, with well-covered dividends), precious metals stocks and funds, international earners (most base metals and oil stocks should be tradeable throughout 2009 as volatility remains historically high), UK government gilts (switching to Index Linked 2nd or 3rd quarters), selective corporate bond funds, emerging markets trusts; basically solid yield, transparent earnings, modest growth and p/e in single figures is the order of the day. Due to the continued volatility it is extremely difficult to recommend stocks on a 1 year+ view but depending on market conditions I am still recommending Hochschild (my favoured pick for 2009 with c.£90m in cash; Mkt Cap £420m; yield 3.4%; 2008 High 467 Low 65 now 138p), Randgold, Anglo American amongst the metals, Royal Dutch & BP, Templeton Emerging and have added Yamana Gold (a Canadian miner, Mkt Cap £3.5bn) at 525p and Henderson Far East 214p yield 5.6% to my extensive lists of stocks that I follow. Please contact me to discuss any stocks or investments that you may have concerns about or may be interested in.
Generally speaking I would favour a portfolio weighting such as 30% Fixed Interest (incl bond funds,etc), 20% cash, 50% equities (overseas earners mainly incl. up to 25% in precious metals) until a clearer picture emerges throughout 2009. I believe it is too early to make a call for a basket of UK equities; some observers have already made incorrect calls on UK equities (eg. Anthony Bolton ex-Fidelity). There’s every likelihood that an avalanche of earnings downgrades and profits-warnings, rights issues (I suspect Rio Tinto is gearing up for one very soon), other failures (both corporate, hedge funds and even private equity troubles) may sink FTSE100 below 4,000 (possibly as low as 3,300) in 1Q 09 so I remain extremely cautious for long-term investors. There are, however, many trading opportunities presenting themselves at present and in particular I am getting excited by the potential moves in Gold and Silver; Platinum remains difficult to call with the Detroit situation delayed until April/May. Gold resistance is being touted at $936pto (currently $843pto) and I think once this level is breached then the previous $1033 high could be tested quite quickly and the following levels tested, $1163, $1332 & $1461; a trading range of $1200-2000 is forecast for 3rd and 4th Q’s 09. With Woolworth’s and a host of other retailers having already failed I suspect that even the larger operations will be suffering by the summer. The outlook for property is still dire and I would guesstimate that another 20-30% fall could be seen this year but the real eye-opener will be in commercial property where it rather looks as though the semi-national banks have cooked up potential losses in the ballpark of £75-100bn which Mr Darling has to contend with shortly. It rather looks as though the only truly independent UK bank will be Standard Chartered going forward; the outlooks for Barclays, HSBC & Lloyds (with HBOS regrettably) is truly difficult to fathom although it looks as though a full-blown bailout of RBS (NatWest and Bank of Scotland to be repackaged and sold off within 2 years) by UK plc is on the cards.
As the anonymous senior partner mentioned in the above heading implied, if any of us could consistently predict the future we would indeed be spending more time with the successful hedge fund managers who’ve cashed in their chips already and own a fleet of gin palaces in Dubai, Monaco and all points east and west.
With FTSE100 producing its worst ever performance for 2008 with a decline of 31.49% over the year and mostly factored during the September-November period I am not going to predict how FTSE100 will end in 2009 suffice to say that I do not expect an economic recovery for quite some time yet. Although every Wall Street strategist is ‘bullish’ for 09 it is important to remember that the very same ‘experts’ were bullish for 08; as my stockbroking father always said, “there are no experts in this business!”. My gut feeling though is that FTSE100 may well trade nearer to 4,000 than 4,600 where it is currently hovering and I wouldn’t be surprised to see S&P retest 800 during 09 despite Barack Obama’s economic stimulus.
The last quarter saw some extraordinary events many of them predicted by market observers. The bail out (TARP) of the world banking system was indeed unprecedented (a word that has been overused many times since) but like many market professionals I saw little merit then (and still do) in throwing tax payers future earnings at dubious balance sheets surrounded by black holes and ongoing derivative failures. The credit crunch, albeit predicted by many, did not play out as many thought. Whilst bank shares were crunched and hedge funds were forced to liquidate (where they could) positions the bottom fell out of base commodities dragging even precious metals prices and stocks across all sectors down with them. This was not meant to happen but it did. Furthermore the oil price once touching the high of $147pbo remarkably fell off the cliff next door and lost $100pbo in the same time frame; strangely the two oil majors on the FTSE100, BP and Royal Dutch held up pretty well over this period. The lesson to be learned I think is that many of the falls were liquidity driven so today there are plenty of opportunities for value investors and true fundamentalists adopting technical disciplines alongside differing strategies.
With the ban on short-selling of financials being lifted imminently (and many disagreed with it in the first place including myself) I wouldn’t be surprised if many more financial calamities occur (or get exposed like Bernie Madoff’s ponzi designed to scalp hedge fund investors). Whilst politicians call for more regulation it is important to note that rules are in place already. Although Sir Andrew Large (ex-Deputy Governor of the The Old Lady) calls for a new independent body that would provide early warnings of systemic problems and have the tools to discourage excessive borrowing many other people in the City would say that that is the Bank of England & FSA’s role in the first place. I gravely doubt more regulation is the answer whereas more emphasis on leaving practitioners to adjust the nuts and bolts and more expert oversight by these regulators is what is required. Hedge funds need to be regulated just like asset managers and private client stockbrokers. Quite why it has taken so long for governments and regulators to work out why Hedge Funds grew so alarmingly in the last few years surprises quite a few of us in the industry. The lack of regulation has clearly been the main attraction for boffins to leave investment banks and join the ‘hedgies’ on attractive 2/20 terms. That game is over as investors now try to escape the clutches of these over-priced illiquid operations. The fall out has already started and perhaps many will leave the hedge fund industry and reignite the investment banking industry which has been pulverised (Merrill’s and Goldman’s have become commercial banks; Lehman’s and Bear have disappeared) and written off even by the Sage of Omaha who’s own flame has flickered after he bought $5bn of preferences shares in Goldman’s. I don’t agree that the investment banking model is ‘dead’. The problem occurred when gearing and lending occurred in the late ‘90’s favouring the early birds in the hedge industry and it then outgrew itself; there are clearly skills needed from the redundant investment bankers but any new organisations do need to get back to basics where they fully understand their customers. The same could be said for commercial banks in the UK!
The strategy for 2009 should be therefore for UK domiciled investors to avoid financials, retails and industrials and focus on value plays (companies with strong transparent balance sheets, with well-covered dividends), precious metals stocks and funds, international earners (most base metals and oil stocks should be tradeable throughout 2009 as
Generally speaking I would favour a portfolio weighting such as 30% Fixed Interest (incl bond funds,etc), 20% cash, 50% equities (overseas earners mainly incl. up to 25% in precious metals) until a clearer picture emerges throughout 2009. I believe it is too early to make a call for a basket of UK equities; some observers have already made incorrect calls on UK equities (eg. Anthony Bolton ex-Fidelity). There’s every likelihood that an avalanche of earnings downgrades and profits-warnings, rights issues (I suspect Rio Tinto is gearing up for one very soon), other failures (both corporate, hedge funds and even private equity troubles) may sink FTSE100 below 4,000 (possibly as low as 3,300) in 1Q 09 so I remain extremely cautious for long-term investors. There are, however, many trading opportunities presenting themselves at present and in particular I am getting excited by the potential moves in Gold and Silver; Platinum remains difficult to call with the Detroit situation delayed until April/May. Gold resistance is being touted at $936pto (currently $843pto) and I think once this level is breached then the previous $1033 high could be tested quite quickly and the following levels tested, $1163, $1332 & $1461; a trading range of $1200-2000 is forecast for 3rd and 4th Q’s 09. With Woolworth’s and a host of other retailers having already failed I suspect that even the larger operations will be suffering by the summer. The outlook for property is still dire and I would guesstimate that another 20-30% fall could be seen this year but the real eye-opener will be in commercial property where it rather looks as though the semi-national banks have cooked up potential losses in the ballpark of £75-100bn which Mr Darling has to contend with shortly. It rather looks as though the only truly independent UK bank will be Standard Chartered going forward; the outlooks for Barclays, HSBC & Lloyds (with HBOS regrettably) is truly difficult to fathom although it looks as though a full-blown bailout of RBS (NatWest and Bank of Scotland to be repackaged and sold off within 2 years) by UK plc is on the cards.
As the anonymous senior partner mentioned in the above heading implied, if any of us could consistently predict the future we would indeed be spending more time with the successful hedge fund managers who’ve cashed in their chips already and own a fleet of gin palaces in Dubai, Monaco and all points east and west.
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