Friday 1 May 2009

SELL in May & go away..don't come back till St.Ledger Day

There's nothing unusual in the above but clearly the market traders are getting ahead of themselves and events. It seems to me that bank shares are not reflecting the impending problems in their Tier 1 Ratios/derivatives contracts and precious metals stocks are showing short-term weakness because inflation fears in the recent rally have subsided. Navigating through May and the rest of the summer could be problematic as Detroit shows signs of imploding. Chrysler's Chapter XI announcement and Obama's 2 month recovery target hereon is unrealistic. GM & Ford both have their own problems and bearish news on Citibank (break-up?) and Bank Of America are likely as well as poor news from around 1,000 regional US banks. I remain extremely cautious at this time and am only LONG of Intertek, Heritage Oil and Yamana and looking for a large correction soon in mainstream markets. Clearly a disconnect by Wall Street to Main Street has happened. More heavily discounted rights issues could unsettle the markets in the short-term.

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